2024 NFL Regular Season Betting Trends and Promos

As a bettor, the 2024 NFL Regular Season has been a war of attrition. I’m 20-23 picking for Pittsburgh Hockey Now and Steelers Now through Week 9. It’s not a terrible record, but I haven’t been as sharp as previous seasons.

Pride cometh before a fall.

I spent months disparaging the Pittsburgh Steelers and their offseason revamp to anyone who’d listen, and I have to apologize if you took a barstool next to me at one of my haunts.

Unfortunately, I’ve bet against the Steelers during most weeks, hoping my preseason handicap would bear true. It hasn’t, and I’ve lost a lot of bets against the Steelers.

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I also thought the Raiders had a chance to be decent and improve on their 8-9 2023 record, and I’ve bet them in far too many underdog spots.

We’ve got half a season to go. Let’s hit the midseason reset button and explore a few NFL betting trends that may help us climb out of the small hole I’ve dug. 

The Commanders are Cruising

The Washington Commanders are arriving ahead of schedule. Led by rookie QB Jayden Daniels, the Commies come into Week 10 with a 7-2 overall record. They are also 7-1-1 ATS, tied for the league best with the Detroit Lions. 

The Commanders offense ranks:

• Third in yards per game (392)
• Third in yards per play (6.4)
• Third in rushing yards per game (163.9)
• Fourth in points per game (29.2)

And it’s not as if Washington is surprising bookmakers as underdogs. The Commanders have been favored in five of eight games, going 5-0 as a favorite. They’re -2.5 favorites against the Steelers in Week 10 and will likely be favored in four more games. 

The Steelers’ defense will be their biggest test this season, but Washington can score on any team. 

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The Steelers are Over

Through eight games, the Steelers are an impressive 6-2 ATS. What’s more interesting is their 4-4 over/under record. And Steelers games have exceeded the posted total in four of the previous five weeks. 

Russell Wilson, who I thought was over the hill, has unlocked the Steelers offense. Russ’ arm has kept opposing defenses honest, giving Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren room to run. 

Harris, who had a tough start, has blossomed with Russ under center. He’s rushed for a combined 216 yards in Wilson’s first two starts.

The defenses of the AFC North aren’t outstanding. The Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals surrender over 25 points per game. The Steelers’ defense is second-best in points allowed, at 15.4 per game, but they’ve only played two top-15 offenses thus far (one of them was the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1). 

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The Steelers must now play the Baltimore Ravens, Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles, and Kansas City Chiefs. All four of those offenses rank in the top 10. I like a lot of Steelers overs down the stretch.

The Rams are Legitimate NFC West Contenders

I picked the LA Rams to win the NFC West this year, and I still believe they can. They’re currently 2-1 in division games with victories over the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks.  

Why do I think they can win? San Francisco has injury issues. Apparently, San Francisco RB Christian McCaffrey is getting closer to playing. How effective can McCaffrey run coming off calf and Achilles injuries?

The Niners can still rebound on the strength of their defense, but Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy hasn’t looked as sharp this year. He’s on pace to throw 15 picks this year. He’s also behind on his 2023 touchdown mark, throwing only 10 through eight games. 

Seattle is an afterthought. Arizona is a decent team, but the handicap is simple. Matthew Stafford is still the best QB in the division. Sean McVay is the best coach, and the Rams are finally healthy and loaded at the skill positions. 

I’m taking the Rams at +380 to win the NFC West.