3 Thoughts: Mitch Love Obstacle; the Next Coach’s Real Future
It seems the weather will finally break and summer will begin sooner than later, but while we were building an arc, the Pittsburgh Penguins were methodically building a plan for the next steps of the revamp, retool, rebuild, and re-whatever you want to call it. General manager Kyle Dubas is to begin in-person coaching interviews soon, assuming he hasn’t already slipped on or two past prying eyes.
The coaching search has replaced the 2025 NHL Draft as the pressing issue in the Penguins’ universe, and Dubas has a handful of quality candidates on the board, and perhaps a few that we have not yet uncovered.
In the pursuit of the next coach, the favorites are being selected in the fanbase, and emotional attachments are already forming. One of the primary names the public has quickly gravitated toward is Hershey Bears coach Todd Nelson, but curiously, the other receiving a ballyhooed push more so than he ever did while actually holding a job is former Edmonton Oilers head coach Jay Woodcroft.
If you haven’t had a chance to read or watch last week’s thorough examination of the favorites with coach Francis Anzalone, it’s highly recommended reading if you want genuine professional insights on the candidates. Or, if you can watch the video.
Penguins Thoughts
1. Don’t Join the Internet Crowd
You will notice a lot of campaigning for Woodcroft and Nelson on the interwebs, which should immediately cause caution.
If you are plugged into the coverage of other coaching searches, you won’t hear those names. Neither is unknown, but they are not candidates for other wide searches. That should be the second bit of warning to ease off the emotional investment in either potential coach.
The largest knock on Woodcroft before the search began was his failure in Edmonton. Through the tinted lens of history and want, supporters cite his previous time in the league as a positive. Still, when the stakes were the highest, he was roundly considered to be outcoached by Vegas Golden Knights bench boss Bruce Cassidy.
However, Anzalone’s analysis went much deeper. Given the Penguins’ duality of established Hall of Fame veterans and an arriving crop of young players, a strong presence will be essential to herd the team through the coming difficulties necessarily involved in rebuilding.
That’s not Woodcroft.
He may very well get the job because Dubas is putting his stamp on the organization, and the Penguins’ president of hockey operations/GM certainly identifies with and likes fresh faces and intellectually driven choices that cut against the grain of the standard hockey ethos, but he has much to prove.
2. Mitch Love
Often forgotten in the coaching debate is that the potential coach also gets a say in the matter. Sunday night, a commenter to WPXI’s Final Word show lamented that the Penguins should have hired Rick Tocchet.
Sure. Easy. Except that the Penguins did at least have a cursory conversation. Tocchet wanted the Philadelphia gig because it fit his career arc far more so than the somewhat nebulous rebuild status to which the Penguins are beholden.
Washington Capitals assistant coach Mitch Love might well get more than one offer. There are three coaching openings: the Boston Bruins, Seattle Kraken, and the Penguins. Of the three, the Penguins are the farthest from their goal.
Boston has a stated intention to win next season. Seattle was frustrated that they didn’t follow up their 2023-24 playoff berth with a stronger performance and made changes within the organization to return to the playoffs. Seattle has young players and a solid foundation upon which new GM Jason Botterill can build.
And then, there’s the Penguins, who badly missed the playoffs this season, have a defense corps that would give Freddy Krueger nightmares, goaltending uncertainty, and Sidney Crosby somehow outrunning age while his championship core compadres are being tackled by it.
Given a choice, it might seem the Penguins finish third in that three-team competition.
Love is clearly the hot commodity, which clearly works against the Penguins in this case. You would not be wrong to advocate for Love to get the job, but the second part of the equation is that Love must take the job if offered. It is the second part that seems less likely than the first part.
3. Truthfully, It May Not Matter
Buckle your chin straps, sports fans. Some truths hurt, and this will be one. The Pittsburgh Penguins will not be contenders for several more years. In fact, we’re probably looking at five years before it is reasonable to assume that Dubas will have weeded the garden and the newly planted seeds will have started to grow.
The Penguins expect to be competitive before that time. Still, before they can again claim to be contenders, Dubas must acquire new foundational pieces, put a complete complementary roster in place, and a few more assets from the pipeline must be standing ready, just like 2016.
Despite Sullivan’s near-decade-long tenure, one should not expect or perhaps even want the next coach to stick around for so long. That is an extreme length of time for any bench boss, which means by the time the Penguins complete their transition from jumbled mess to Dubas-oiled machine, this new coach will most likely have grown stale.
The team is in a state of transition and flux. Dubas himself admitted he realized it was impossible for a coach to go from the heights of Stanley Cup success to the bottom, then back to the top. So, too, it seems highly unlikely that a coach could ride the process to the bottom, then bring it all the way back to the top.
Time and again, coaching changes are required when a team turns that corner and has higher aspirations. In fact, every rebuilding and recently rebuilt team in the NHL has gone through at least a couple of coaches through the process.
Chicago is on its fourth permanent coach during the process. Buffalo has had a few in the last handful of years. San Jose and Anaheim tell similar tales.
Current Penguins’ candidate D.J. Smith is a perfect example of the corollary. The Ottawa Senators fired Smith three-plus seasons into the job because it was time to bring in a new voice to take the team to the next level. Smith went through the worst of the rebuild with Ottawa and was almost universally well-liked and respected.
But his time expired before the rebuild was complete.
The same will almost assuredly happen to the next Penguins coach. The probability of expiration before celebration is why Love should have reservations about taking the job.
Categorized:Penguins Penguins Coaching Search
Are we to assume that the only 5 names that have been tossed around the past few weeks are the only ones Dubas is interested in? I guess we will learn a little more this week.
This discussion is a bit like trying to guess who the Pens will take with the 11th overall pick. Plenty of logical choices but we don’t know what the organization is actually thinking or what the 10 teams before the Pens will do. The speculation on both topics helps pass the time until the next few actual decisions are made (hiring coaches, draft, UFA/RFA, and maybe trades). Sidenote: Dan’s insights, while not infallible, tend to be pretty decent. I remember Dan hoping Knies would still be around when the Pens used their 2021 2nd round pick. Toronto had the pick… Read more »
You say it might not matter for a couple of years. Why can’t we try to do the right trades or the sign the right guys? If we are going to nickel and dime getting left over players, has been or never were players then it’s a complete waste of time.
With his available cap space opening up, I would expect Dubas to be more strategic going forward. 1) Continue to add guys to flip before the deadline for assets (Eller, Beauvillier, & Glass) and 2) sign longer term deals with younger prospects (tougher because teams tend to hold on to these dudes so availability is scarce).
There is a tension between winning and rebuilding. For the next few seasons, rebuilding should be the focus. The good news is that the Pens finally have a few prospects to potentially fill bottom six roles so the need for “left overs” is diminishing.
Landing Love will require 2 conditions – term and money. He’ll need an extra year or two beyond the normal 4 year term. And more money than BOS and SEA. Just do it! With $24.5M in cap space, 30 draft picks over the next 3 years, and 5 goalies stockpiled in a league suffering from a major shortage at that position, KD has the “capital” to sneak us into the playoffs next season by a cat’s whisker. But we can’t have any more fumbles like Graves and Karlsson. He has to hit it out of the park with all trades… Read more »
Sam, tremendous reply and very accurate. He must have major say in the personnel. He knows exactly what the Penguins problems are and how to beat them. A young, bring Coach that has always been successful. Not a retread. This is now Dubas’s team. No Shanahan or Sullivan interfering with his decisions. A bright General Manager in today’s NHL can change a team very quickly.
These have been solid reads as far as all of the coaching pieces put out. I had the same thoughts that the next coach might not even matter given the retool timeline. The GM side is interesting though, if FSG gets restless and wanted things turned around faster, that’s Pressure on Dubas. The estimated time here is 5 years, does Dubas even make it that long as pres/gm? Just on assumption you could draw the conclusion that 7 years to turn a team to contention is like the redwings situation posted about ealier. Doesn’t look good on paper for keeping… Read more »
My input on your ponderment would be the first two years didn’t really count as they were spent in pursuit of giving Crosby one more shot. It’s almost like this summer is the first of the Dubas plan, so I’d set your calendar thusly.
Good comments.
I’d say the last three years before the “first two years” didn’t really count either. Their “winning window” effectively ended in 2020 with the onset of The Great Leap Backward (also known as the Rutherford-Hextall debacle).
Dubas will follow his plan outlined in his press conference. Fix the left side of the D. Get more young players and let them play. The pens could take a critical step in the next 4-6 weeks. If it goes right, this team could be well on its way. Get Byram and McLeod from Buffalo. Be high bidder for Howard. Trade for Dack on a flier. Sign Marner.
I bet Mitch Love goes to Seattle if they make him an offer, it just makes sense for him. He has ties to that area having played and coached in Everett, and it’s close to British Columbia too where he’s from.
New coach’s Houdini task: Based on the performance of the NHL’s most recent expansion teams, LV & Seattle, is it realistic to expect the Penguins will be able to leapfrog the Atlanta Act IIIs for a spot in the playoffs in the post Crosby era? Moves like basically dumping McCann to protect Carter during the last expansion process was such a nightmarish move that it makes the Karlsson acquisition a stroke of genius (and relative to holding on to the GPR trio it was). I don’t wish to be an Eeyore but based on the roster moves the Pens have… Read more »
If the general consensus is that the team wont compete for the goal of a cup contender for x amount of years, why hang on to the older vets? It would seem like poor asset management not to get the best value (now) for Rakell and to a lesser degree Rust in trade deals. Most player’s productivity slows down in their 30’s and they may not be as effective for the Pens in the next few years fitting within the teams timeline. (Calgary has some beauties to attain; Bahl, Klapka, Pospisil for example) I realize I’m off topic but the… Read more »
Beyond the Herculean effort to acquire talent and the right coach, I’m concerned about the locker room leadership and influence. Crosby and Rust are good to wear letters on their sweaters. Geno and Tanger, as much as I love them, are beyond their time. They may have some physical play left, but they are no longer in a position to carry the room. Given the teams terrible mental collapses, new leadership needs to come in.
Well if this is all true then Love won’t be coming to Pittsburgh. And perhaps it’s someone like D.J. Smith who should guide the team over the next couple years until the team is rebuilt and ready to compete.
It’s analysis and projection. That’s different than reporting what is happening.
Love the metaphors or is it metaphysics…first Dubas “weeds the garden” following which he oils (Dubas-oiled) the roster.
I don’t know whether to reach for my hoe or my oil can…and all this time I thought it was a hockey themed article when it was actually a home improvement/auto repair column.
Dan has both a green thumb and a WD 40 certificate.
Happy subscriber here!