Analysis: Which Penguins RFAs to Re-Sign, Which to Drop

Transition might be the most appropriate word to use when describing what the Pittsburgh Penguins are attempting.

General manager Kyle Dubas hopes to smoothly move the team from a roster filled with 30-somethings, whose average age before the transition began was close to 32, to a team that once again has enough young legs to be competitive. Dubas hopes to do so without years of massive losses, fans tuning out, and the hopelessness that often engulfs rebuilds for years.

Of course, to get from here to there, from losing to winning, from old to young, and from afterthought to relevant without a treasure trove of high draft picks will require deft decision making, getting it right on a few mid-tier prospects, making the right call on a few decisions on which there is no apparent right answer.

After Dubas gauges the NHL trade market over the next couple of months, he will have the opportunity to sign more than a handful of restricted free agents. First, the Penguins will need to qualify them before free agency to retain their rights, a fact P.O Joseph learned the hard way last June when the team reversed course on public statements and did not tender him an offer.

Joseph is again one of the RFAs on the Penguins’ list after Dubas re-acquired him via trade from the St. Louis Blues.

The list of five RFAs is as interesting as it is debatable. There isn’t a guaranteed return, nor is there a guaranteed rejection.

One note, money won’t be an issue this summer as the Penguins will have more than enough salary cap space for anything they want to do.

Forwards: Connor Dewar, Philip Tomasino, Vasily Ponomarev

Defensemen: P.O Joseph, Conor Timmins

RFA Projections

Joseph

In conversations with Pittsburgh Hockey Now toward the end of the season, Joseph strongly implied that he would return. He does not want to be one of those hockey vagabonds chasing paychecks, living in city after city. He wants roots in Pittsburgh.

PHN wondered about the feasibility of his return because, clearly, former coach Mike Sullivan had little patience for Joseph. In fact, it wouldn’t take much for Joseph to land in trouble with the coach, as Sullivan seemed to cast Joseph as one of those players who could do no right, rather than do no wrong.

Even Joseph’s successful runs beside Kris Letang seemed to result from Sullivan’s begrudging decisions to use Joseph there. Perhaps no defenseman has played as well beside Letang since Brian Dumoulin’s departure two years ago, yet Joseph-Letang was never the default pairing.

Treating a few players that way was one of Sullivan’s shortcomings.

(Somehow, fans missed this prime example of Sullivan limiting a player, but instead latched onto the older, far more experienced Jesse Puljujarvi as one.)

Joseph, 25, has speed, reach, and good puck movement. And a left-handed stick, which is uniquely in short supply for the Penguins. He has an offensive layer not yet tapped, but he is not a physical defenseman. He plays with good gaps but could be better at the net front battles.

Verdict: Re-sign at a minimum or near-minimum contract. Our gut feeling is that Dubas liked Joseph more than Sullivan, which is why the team traded for him. We also guess that Joseph’s work on the right side this season makes him a versatile defenseman at a small cost who could be unlocked with the confidence brought by a new coach.

Timmins

The Penguins acquired Timmins and Dewar from the Toronto Maple Leafs for merely a fifth-round pick. That’s not a pick for each, but one for both at the trade deadline.

Timmins’s advanced metrics are mediocre. He was even or nearly even in all categories in 50 games with the Toronto Maple Leafs, despite getting nearly an even number of starts in the offensive zone as the defensive zone.

There’s a lot to like about the 6-foot-2, 214-pound D-man. Timmins can be physical near the net, yet still has good puck movement and skating. Sullivan cast him in an unwinnable situation, sometimes playing on the right side with Erik Karlsson pushed onto the left, and sometimes, Timmins was on the left with Karlsson on the right.

It was a weird situation for the two right-handers and one that made little sense for players or the team, yet Sullivan stuck with it to each player’s detriment over the final weeks of the season.

It led to a lot of mistakes by Timmins on both the right and left sides.

Timmins, 26, is arbitration-eligible and due a larger contract than Joseph because of his expiring contract, which carries a $2.2 million salary cap hit.

Verdict: Timmins should be re-signed, but part of the decision might rest on the immediate futures of Letang and Karlsson. The Penguins also have a pair of young right-side defensemen, Jack St. Ivany and Harrison Brunicke, who very well could be ready for full-time work next season.

AFP Analytics estimates his next contract to be two years, at $2.673 million annually.

If Timmins returns, he must play on the right side and with a trustworthy partner. Perhaps then, the Penguins will get a good look at what they’ve got.

Forwards

Ponomarev

Ponomarev, 23, didn’t break through this season as the organization had hoped. In fact, he played a rather dull version of his game at the NHL level that wasn’t worth keeping around. However, he has the immediate potential to be better if the new coach’s system is simpler and taps into his basic skill set.

Verdict: This is an easy one. Re-sign him at the minimum. Ponomarev is a natural center, which is something the Penguins lack, as well as a zippy, physical player who is unfraid of contact, giving or receiving. However, next season will be his make-or-break at the NHL level.

Dewar

Listed at 5-foot-10, 192 pounds, Dewar appears far smaller in person. However, he plays a bigger game. He could replace one of the veterans on the fourth line, forming a nice tandem with center Blake Lizotte. Dewar’s offensive pop with the Penguins was likely a post-trade adrenaline jump, as he had only three assists in 31 games with Toronto before the trade.

Dewar is the scrappy, fast forward who can kill penalties and agitate the opponents. In 17 games with the Penguins, he committed three minor penalties but drew five.

Verdict: Another easy one. Re-sign him for about $1 million.

Tomasino

Sullivan gave Tomasino the long runway that Dubas had asked Sullivan to give him. However, the results were a mixed bag. Tomasino started hot, sniped a few game-winning goals in his first couple of weeks, but then tailed off dramatically.

Tomasino, 23, tallied 11 goals and 12 assists in 50 games. Those are respectable totals for a third-line winger, but for much of his time, he was on the Penguins’ second line with Evgeni Malkin.

Sullivan lauded Tomasino’s effort to become a more complete player, rather than a one-dimensional perimeter player. However, the laundry list of shortcomings to improve that Sullivan would usually rattle off was not insignificant.

Tomasino has a good wrist shot and a knack for scoring, but if he wasn’t scoring, he wasn’t helping the team. AFP Analytics scores him as trending downward, which we agree.

Verdict: Re-sign only under favorable contract terms, which would be close to $1 million. By default, Tomasino is a perimeter player who showed only small improvement from beginning to end. He’s more likely to be demoted to the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins than become a 20-goal scorer.

AFP estimates Tomasino trending downward toward $1.4 million.

In four seasons, he’s not broken 11 goals, which is not enough for a bottom-six winger who doesn’t kill penalties, provide a good forecheck, or add physicality.

Dubas gambled, but the Penguins weren’t able to get what they hoped.