Buckle Up: Dubas on the Clock, Will Define His Penguins Era

PHILADELPHIA –– Start the clock. Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas will be on the job for two years in June, but the first quarter of his seven-year contract was spent trying in vain to patch a leaky dam and, upon obviously failing that nearly impossible task, setting the table for the next era of Penguins hockey.

Time moves quickly.

After a sad loss to the Philadelphia Flyers Tuesday, the Penguins are just two points out of the Eastern Conference basement, with only the Buffalo Sabres trailing.

Yes, the Penguins have sunk to the Sabres’ depths.

Despite three more years of Kris Letang and at least two more years of Sidney Crosby, this is no longer the championship version of the Penguins. Beginning this season, whatever happened is on Dubas’s watch, but now it’s entirely his responsibility because it will be entirely his plan, and he’ll be dealing exclusively with the results of his own decisions (Letang notwithstanding).

Dubas will have a rising salary cap, 29 draft picks in the next three drafts, 15 of those will be in the first three rounds, and at least one extra first-rounder (belonging to the New York Rangers) either this year or next.

Dubas set this 2024-25 Penguins roster to have a shelf life only slightly longer than Almond milk. Eight of the Penguins’ 23-man roster are currently slated to be unrestricted or restricted free agents.

A couple or a few more players also figure to be traded, and a few more draft picks added, or–if Dubas gets his way—subtracted for a more immediate influx of youthful players.

It’s all Dubas now. There will be no more grace period stemming from the calamitous past mistakes, plausible as that reasoning may have been.

And the team has plenty of needs. They’ll be restocking the middle of the ice, looking for another scoring winger or two, and top-pairing defenseman.

About the only thing they have in the cupboard (so far) is a couple of potential top-six wingers (Rutger McGroarty, Ville Koivunen), a solid defenseman (Owen Pickering), and perhaps a middle-six center (Tristan Broz) to go with their young goalies (Joel Blomqvist and Sergei Murashov).

However, none figure to be All-Star players nor players around whom to build. They are complementary pieces, though Murashov just might be special.

However, Dubas will also be racing against the clock. There is a finite amount of time in which he’ll have Sidney Crosby, a superstar, playing at a high level at the top of the lineup. It cannot be overstated how important Crosby is to the Penguins’ lineup.

Without a No. 1 center, the team would be in absolute shambles. Without Crosby, the Penguins might well be THE worst team in the NHL.

To Dubas’s task, if his moves take longer than anticipated or he’s unable to acquire a few young players to fill immediate roles, the Penguins will have a two, perhaps three-year gap between the end of Crosby’s next contract and the arrival of the cavalcade of players acquired with the additional draft picks.

We’re assuming there will be an influx of young players, perhaps a couple of talented ones, but that should not be taken for granted. Teams that teeter and fall into the abyss while rebuilding have a tougher time getting out. Suddenly, nothing seems to work. Everything seems to fall apart. Culture rots.

The intermediate years of Dubas’s contract will be the defining period. More immediately, the next 12 months will either set up the Penguins to undergo the impatient rebuild that Fenway Sports Group principal Tom Werner discussed in October, or Dubas will spend another year waiting for seeds he planted to grow, hoping a few bear enough fruit to keep the Penguins relevant, lest we see a redux of Rico Fata, Ramzi Abid, and Dick Tarnstrom leading the black and gold.

Dubas has set the table. He’s acquired enough future assets to be successful, but it’s impossible to hit home runs on every pick to replenish the team. And the next Crosby isn’t just going to fall out of the sky because the Penguins stink.

No, the Penguins will need to restock in an entirely different way this time. Remember, they were down to a 50/50 chance of getting Bobby Ryan in 2005, not Crosby.

And not every first-round pick excels or excels right away. See also, Sam Poulin, Jesse Puljujarvi, Philip Tomasino, P.O Joseph, Cody Glass, and Anthony Beauvillier.

And some take a few years to get there with no guarantees attached. See also Rutger McGroarty.

As the Penguins plummet in the standings, everything should be under review. From the veteran players to the coach and scouting. It’s all going to be crucial to turning around the sinking ship before it goes under water because once that happens, it’s more likely to stay there for a long time.

For those who wanted the frenzied action of a rebuild, buckle up. The next 18-24 months will set the Penguins’ path for the next decade, good or bad.

Dubas is on the clock.