Dubas, Penguins Trade Potentials; Cap Spike Opens New Strategies

For the Pittsburgh Penguins to get from here to there, that great unknown that lies beyond the careers and reliance upon their Hall of Fame core, was to be an exercise in patience and sound judgment. Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas has, or had, a plan, but the best-laid plans are not immune to changing circumstances, especially when circumstances change for the better.

The salary cap spike just might allow Dubas to accelerate his plans or upgrade them entirely.

Enter the flood of cash every team will receive this summer, as the NHL salary cap is going to rise faster than a Space X rocket. By the end of the rise in three years, the cap is expected to hover around $113 million, which is a long way from the current $88 million.

Dubas had already created a scenario by which he could pawn his unneeded cap space for more draft picks and assets. He did so twice last summer by acquiring Kevin Hayes and Cody Glass as the recipients of salary dumps. Each player arrived with a draft pick in their hockey bag, and eventually, Hayes cost the St. Louis Blues two draft picks because they wanted their original pick back to extend an RFA offer sheet (Dylan Holloway).

Dubas would have been in a prime position to again charge teams to haul their junk, either at the March 7 trade deadline or in the summer, except that most teams will have more space than they expected.

The Penguins also have the largest cache of draft picks in the NHL, 29 over the next three years, including 15 in the top three rounds. They don’t need more volume. They need more quality.

Following the Marcus Pettersson and Drew O’Connor trade to Vancouver, in which the Penguins acquired the New York Rangers first-round pick in either 2025 (top 13 protected) or 2026 (unprotected), Dubas didn’t hide his intentions with that asset. Quite simply, that pick is for sale, and Dubas has hung a big yellow sign on the front yard advertising it.

To no surprise, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman confirmed on the latest 32 Thoughts that there’s heavy interest in acquiring the pick.

Dubas wants a young player(s) for that asset, and he’ll get it.

But that alone won’t get the Penguins from here to there. Nor will making many of those selections in the draft because the odds of getting an impact player with second and third-round picks are pretty low, and the odds of getting an impact center or defenseman are even lower.

For example, Penguins prospect Tristan Broz might well become a middle-six center at the NHL level. He was the 2021 second-round pick, which means June will be four years since his draft day, and he’s just a rookie at the AHL level, still honing his craft.

Another cautionary example is 2019 first-rounder Sam Poulin (21st overall), who has not found his niche at the next level, instead carving out a solid AHL career. Such results happen often. Not every pick becomes a Hall of Famer.

Remember, per Fenway Sports Group principal Tom Werner, “We’re in the mode of being impatient.” So, Dubas can go to market with a highly desired trade chip that won’t impact the current team or the organization’s relationship with Sidney Crosby.

Trade/Retooling Strategy

So, let’s start with the basics. The Penguins have about $70 million committed to 15 players next season. A few prospects will fill spots, and should the team retain Cody Glass, he won’t break the bank, so let’s project the Penguins to be at $77 million, give or take a million.

The cap is going up to $95.5 million, and there are no hints of FSG limiting Dubas’s expenditures. In fact, Dubas has publicly thanked FSG for the blank check to essentially buy assets. As Dubas’s plan unfolds, there’s also no reason to limit the team as he did last summer by signing short-term free agents.

Perhaps Dubas could see the value in a big-money, splashy free agent signing if they’re young enough to fit the plan. As luck would have it, there are some hefty unrestricted free agents who are 28 years old or younger who will hit the market on July 1.

We’re looking at you, Mitch Marner. You, too, Sam Bennett.

Marner and Dubas know each other well from Dubas’s years as the Toronto Maple Leafs GM. The forward has both eschewed new contract talks with Toronto and the possibility of being traded. Marner will be 28 in May and is one of the premier right wings in the game. He was a center in juniors and there’s been persistent wonder if moving him to the middle would elevate his game further.

Marner as a Penguin? Even if he wouldn’t be an heir apparent in the middle, he would be an exceptional RW to keep the team competitive and is young enough to be around long enough for the next chapter. There’s no doubt he could make an average center look pretty good.

Marner will get a payday that might require armored trucks to visit his house monthly, but it must be tantalizing to wonder what he would look like at the top of the Penguins lineup.

Michael Bunting-Evgeni Malkin-Marner? Eventually, Bunting-Marner-Rutger McGroarty?

Spend on RFAs?

Some RFAs could very well hit the market as they ask for more money than their teams are prepared to spend.

Hello, Mason McTavish and Gabe Vilardi.

Minnesota Wild forward Marco Rossi could be listed, but we don’t think Minnesota GM Bill Guerin will let him leave Minnesota.

McTavish, 22, has been a slow burn for the Anaheim Ducks. He was the Ducks’ first-r0und pick and third overall pick in 2021, but he has yet to exceed 43 points or score 20 goals in a season. He’s experienced an uptick this season, but neither 20 goals nor breaking 43 points is assured. He currently has 13 goals and 27 points in 47 games.

Winnipeg has cap space to re-sign Vilardi, who has scored more than 20 goals in three straight seasons. However, given the weakening Canadian dollar and Winnipeg’s small market issues, it’s easy to wonder if it will be under an internal cap and forced to move some talent. An extra first-rounder would certainly ease that pain.

Vilardi is listed as a center but has primarily been a right-wing at the NHL level.

It’s a real possibility the Penguins could pony up that first-rounder to acquire the rights to any of those RFAs because the Penguins can absorb heavier salaries. It’s also true the Penguins have veterans to include in any trade.

The world is opening up for Dubas and the Penguins. The wave of money hitting hockey comes at a time when they have deep-pocketed owners who understand how to wisely invest in the product, other teams lack such resources, and additional opportunities to acquire talent will be available.

Oh and the Penguins already have several prospects who could or should be ready for next season, too.