Erik Karlsson Report Card: Disappointment and What Comes Next

Erik Karlsson sparkled at the Four Nations Face-Off tournament for Team Sweden in February. He was up on the rush and back on defense. He was engaged in all phases of the game and rekindled memories of just how good he can be.

Karlsson was more often anything but that dazzling defender for the Pittsburgh Penguins for the duration of the regular season. The defenseman had a slow start because of an injury suffered during the captain’s practices before the start of training camp. He missed all of camp and the preseason and was slowed when he returned for the start of the regular season.

Friction

There was the little public kerfuffle when he said he was “playing great” in October, when even he knew that he was struggling. There were the loose gaps and overtly soft defensive zone coverages that sandwiched turnovers and bad pinches.

Was it the Penguins’ system and scheme devised by former coach Mike Sullivan that limited Karlsson? Sullivan publicly implored Karlsson to take his game to the next level, but to do so smartly. He seemed to have a green light that he didn’t fully embrace.

It was anything but a banner season for Karlsson, even as he put up offensive totals that would satisfy most defensemen. Karlsson had 11 goals and 42 assists in 82 games, though the output still pales in comparison to the explosive game he flashed at the Four Nations.

When PHN inquired if the Swedish system allowed him to break free or if it was simply the opportunity of playing on the big stage with great players, his reply was simple yet telling: “A bit of both.”

But it was the minus-24 despite the healthy point total at even strength that is glaring. Sure, the hockey nerds will cringe at using the generality of a plus/minus stat to make a point, but the advanced numbers are no better.

The eye tests were even worse.

Karlsson 2024-25 Grade: D

There was a solid month-plus in which Karlsson looked like the difference-making defenseman that general manager Kyle Dubas envisioned when he flopped his cards on the table Aug. 6, 2023, to close the summer of teetering trade negotiations.

From mid-November through the holiday break in late December, Karlsson flashed his very best. He was on the puck in the defensive zone and careful with it in the offensive zone. He used his unique hip-turn technique near the net to steer would-be net-crashers away from the cage.

Interestingly, a large part of his surge coincided with pointed criticism from his legendary former Team Sweden coach, Johan Garpenlov, who pointedly said Karlsson shouldn’t be on Team Sweden because of his defensive shortcomings.

Read More: Former Swedish National Coach Slams Erik Karlsson

Karlsson had 21 points (2-19-21) in his next 24 games through early January. Not coincidentally, the Penguins surged back into playoff contention, overcoming a bumbling start.

And as quickly as Karlsson arrived, he left, just like the rest of the team. The Penguins’ pulse that was strong again became barely a blip as the team won only four games in January (4-7-3), and four games in February (4-4-3).

That was all it took to erase their playoff hopes. Eight wins in two months.

From Jan. 11 through the final game of the month on Jan. 29, Karlsson had two assists in 10 games, and the Penguins were just 3-7-0.

The trend was and is painfully obvious: As Karlsson goes, so go the Penguins.

However, his disengaged play and strident opinions even drew a rebuke from Dubas following the season.

“My view would be that we expect him to be one of the people who pulls us from where we’re at and into contention,” Dubas said. “I had a long meeting with Erik on Friday. My push to him would be that his actions have to match his ambitions. That’s in consistency, preparation, and training, like every other player on the team.”

Karlsson arrived as the Penguins’ new potstir, the piece of the puzzle that would re-ignite the flagging hopes of an aging team. The high-flying defenseman has never been a consistently great defender, but his offensive prowess earned him a third Norris Trophy in 2023.

Dubas imagined an offensive powerhouse, a juggernaut on the power play, and enough offense to resurrect the Penguins’ Stanley Cup hopes.

Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and then Karlsson. A collection of Hall of Famers would surely rise to the top.

But they didn’t. Crosby alone has carried the crumbling team, which is now in full transition mode.

Karlsson, too, envisioned winning his first Stanley Cup, or at least getting back into contention for the first time in a handful of years. He had control of any trade destinations, and his primary condition was that he wanted to win.

Now, as he approaches 35 years old, the Penguins have missed the playoffs in each of his two seasons, first failing to crack 90 points, then racing just to reach 80.

Bluntly, Karlsson’s disengaged play has burned much of his trade value. His $10 million salary cap hit for two more seasons probably torches the rest. That desire to win may very well need to be refocused first on helping the Penguins’ turnaround because there is no line of suitors, as there were in 2023.

Just as it was this season, if there is to be any Penguins’ success during the turnover of veterans to younger players next season, it may again be determined by Karlsson’s performance. Until the relationship ends, it seems as Karlsson goes, so go the Penguins.