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Flyers vs. Penguins Betting Prediction (April 15, 2021)



Pittsburgh Penguins Cody Ceci

The Philadelphia Flyers may not have the worst record in hockey, but they sure are playing like they do. The Flyers have lost six of eight games (with 2-4-2 mark) and are fresh off an embarrassing 6-1 loss to the Capitals. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Penguins have won three straight and are 9-2-1 over their past 12 games.

Let’s take a look at this matchup, the sixth of eight between these two teams this season, from a betting perspective in our Flyers vs. Penguins betting preview with odds, picks and predictions.

The Flyers’ latest defeat was their seventh loss this season by five or more goals. It’s a defeat which leaves them likely playing out the string of a forgettable season. Things probably won’t get any better for Philly despite getting a Pittsburgh team that has a bevy of players on the injured list. However, the Penguins trade fo intriguing reinforcement Jeff Carter from Los Angeles. Carter will make his Penguins debut tonight, ironically, against the team that drafted him.

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Flyers vs. Penguins Betting Pick

Philadelphia has allowed five goals or more 13 times this season. That’s almost unfathomable in today’s NHL, but it’s true.

The Flyers have allowed more goals against on average than any team in the league except Ottawa, giving up on average 3.57 goals per game. Poor defense, penalty killing and goaltending have been the culprits. The Flyers seem to have a different set of defensemen every game, the penalty kill ranks 30th of 31 teams and the goalie tandem of Brian Elliott and Carter Hart have been subpar, ranking 31st and 33rd in save percentage, respectively, out of 33 goalies with at least 20 games played.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh’s offense has been hot in April. Through six games this month, the Penguins have scored 29 goals (4.83 per game) and now get to feast on the Flyers’ woeful defense. The Penguins had 21 different players register at least one point in those six games and have five players who averaged a point or more per game in April: Jake Guentzel (6-5-11), Sidney Crosby (2-7-9), Kris Letang (1-6-7), Mike Matheson (2-4-6) and Mark Jankowski (2-4-6).

Flyers vs. Penguins Odds

Here are the lines for Flyers vs. Penguins at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Spread: Flyers (+1.5 -175), Penguins (-1.5 +143)
Moneyline: Flyers (+145); Penguins (-167)
Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-105)/Under 6.5 (-117)

Bets We Like With a Flyers Win

Travis Konecny OVER 0.5 points (-102, FanDuel), or Jake Voracek OVER 0.5 points (-102, Fan Duel), or Claude Giroux OVER 0.5 points (-110, FanDuel), or Giroux OVER 0.5 goals (+300, FanDuel)

It’s hard to imagine the Flyers wining tonight given the way they are playing, but one thing they have going for them is that in games following a blowout (losing by five goals or more), they are 4-0-2 in their next game. In those six contests, three players have stood out — Giroux (3-5-8), Konecny (1-6-7) and Voracek (2-4-6).

These players seem to respond the most after the Flyers play poorly, so, you might be able to cash in on some of these props, even if the Flyers don’t win. (We particularly like the odds on Giroux to score.)

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Bets We Like With a Penguins Win

Bryan Rust OVER 0.5 goals (+194, FanDuel)

We mentioned all of the Penguins who have been carrying the offense this month, but picking any of them to score or get a point doesn’t come with much value. However, Rust has also been solid in April (2-3-5) and has two goals in five games against the Flyers this season. This is where the value lies, so go with Rust to maximize a bet, especially since the Pens are likely to win this game.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Penguins to be leading after the first period (+128, FanDuel)

This almost looks too easy. In the past 16 games, the Flyers have only had the lead after one period twice and have been tied three times. That means in 11-of-16 (69%) they’ve been trailing at the opening 20 minutes.

Meanwhile, over their past 16 games, the Penguins have had the lead 10 times. No matter the outcome, the Flyers are typically chasing teams after intermission. Alternatively, the Penguins often get off to fast starts.

Flyers vs. Penguins Prediction

Pittsburgh is still chasing an East Division title. Philadelphia is chasing tee times. The Penguins are going to win this game.

If you want to lay that wood, go ahead, but a better bet would be going with an alternate over/under total, bring it down a puck to 5.5 (also -167), and then parlay the two together: Penguins and OVER 5.5 is +140.

Final score: Penguins 4, Flyers 2

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Anthony SanFilippo has covered the NHL for more than two decades. Based in Philadelphia, he has worked for newspapers, magazines, websites, sports blogs, and even a professional NHL team.

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