Penguins Trade Analysis: The Grade, Fallout, & McGroarty Projections

The bombshell in the hockey world centered on a Pittsburgh Penguins trade, and it livened up a sunny but boring August Thursday. The Penguins traded their top prospect, center Brayden Yager, to the Winnipeg Jets in exchange for Winnipeg’s disgruntled top prospect, RW Rutger McGroarty.

It seemed to come out of nowhere, but a trade like that doesn’t happen with one phone call.

Yager was the 2023 14th overall pick. McGroarty was selected 14th overall by Winnipeg in 2022 from the University of Michigan, where he remained for two seasons because of a beef with Winnipeg over where he would start his professional career.

Read More: Penguins Sign Newly Acquired Top Prospect McGroarty

McGroarty insisted he was NHL-ready and wanted to follow teammates such as Adam Fantilli and Frank Nazar, who went straight from Michigan to the NHL. Winnipeg disagreed so the college prospect stayed in school.

And that’s where this trade gets very interesting.

Penguins president of hockey operations/GM Kyle Dubas has been willing to stockpile later-year draft picks, such as swapping St. Louis’s 2025 second-rounder back to St. Louis in exchange for their 2026 second-round pick and Ottawa’s 2025 third-rounder. The delayed receipt of the primary acquisition indicated a long-range vision and lack of immediacy in acquiring prospects.

However, Yager was touted as a potential second-line center in the near future and expected to battle for an NHL spot in training camp.

McGroarty signed with the Penguins immediately following the trade and will likely compete in the NHL this season, but trading a center for a winger of similar pedigrees is rare. It’s even more curious as Winnipeg had no leverage with McGroarty, who vowed to stay in school until Winnipeg met his demands.

In other words, McGroarty had Winnipeg over a barrel, but the Penguins gave up their top prospect anyway.

Why?

To be crystal clear, there are several reasons, but the primary one is the deal wouldn’t have gone down if the Penguins believed Yager would be a top-six center. A rebuilding team just doesn’t trade a potential second-line center for a potential second-line winger. A center is far more valuable. Furthermore, a team wouldn’t part with its prized top prospect in a trade with a team that couldn’t sign the player.

It’s like paying more than the sticker price on a car.

No, the only two reasons Dubas would make this trade are that he believes McGroarty is superior, and the Penguins didn’t believe Yager would be a second-line center.

Penguins Trade Grade: A+

After scouting Yager and the Moose Jaw Warriors at the Memorial Cup, I noticed a major flaw in his game: He was far too cautious against top competition. Despite having a wicked wrister, he retreated when in the offensive zone. He was also not strong on the walls.

Read More: Scouting Penguins Brayden Yager In-Person; What Pens Have on the Way

We didn’t include this in the scouting report, but a scout who knew our purpose for being at the Memorial Cup lightheartedly said before Game 3, “Hopefully, Yager plays some offense for you tonight.”

It was a joke, but not really.

However, the Penguins maintained high hopes. After all, Yager scored 35 goals and 95 points with Moose Jaw last season. At the Penguins’ Development Camp in July, director of player development Tom Kostopoulos said he expected Yager to challenge for an NHL roster spot this fall.

A 14th overall pick certainly should challenge for a roster spot in his second year, especially when the players selected directly in front and several behind will do so.

Yet, Yager seemed ticketed for another year at Moose Jaw. The Penguins have a glut of centers, but that shouldn’t have been a problem for a top prospect. Obviously, the Penguins’ action confirms the bigger issue was Yager’s ceiling.

Penguins Lineup Fallout

The Penguins have far more centers than slots. Not only are young players such as Vasily Ponomarev likely blocked, but Lars Eller and Blake Lizotte are centers. The additions of Cody Glass and Kevin Hayes likely mean a center will play wing, and another could be served a plate of press box nachos.

The Penguins’ NHL lineup was full, but McGroarty signing with the Penguins means they’ve promised him NHL ice.

That means Valtteri Puustinen is probably not going to be in the lineup. The former seventh-round pick fought his way to the big show and flashed some offensive potential while scoring five goals and 20 points in 50 games. However, he was also inconsistent, becoming a healthy scratch several times, and coaches pushed him for a more consistent effort.

If Puustinen cracks the lineup, that likely means Anthony Beauvillier would be the odd-winger-out.

Unless another trade is forthcoming involving a Penguins veteran winger, it would appear Puustinen will be shoved to the side unless he asserts himself ahead of McGroarty.

Jesse Puljujarvi is also blocked unless the Penguins are willing to waive the salary-dump veterans they acquired this summer in wholesale fashion.

McGroarty Projections (+)

Some question whether McGroarty is right-wing or left-wing. It would appear the answer is both, but he played mostly LW last season on a line with highly touted Chicago Blackhawks center prospect Frank Nazar.

Pittsburgh Hockey Now projects McGroarty to begin the season on the Penguins’ third line behind O’Connor and Michael Bunting, with whomever the third center is (Hayes or Eller) and whoever is the third RW (likely Anthony Beauvillier, maybe Cody Glass).

Also, McGroarty could slot higher in the lineup based on chemistry. The winger is a playmaker more than a shooter, and he brings a physical edge. He also doesn’t mind going to the front of the net.

He could be a nice setup cocktail with the gritty Michael Bunting and center Evgeni Malkin.

It’s quite hard to imagine McGroarty leapfrogging Bryan Rust or O’Connor to play on the Penguins’ top line with Sidney Crosby because that’s high-pressure prime real estate, which is responsible for a large portion of the Penguins offense.

Certainly, in the beginning, the third line is where to start.

Oh, and we see him on the power play, probably on the second unit, too. However, whether he takes a playmaking spot on the wall or a battle-zone position near the net will be an interesting decision.

So, the Penguins got a net-front, playmaking winger with some weight in exchange for someone we projected as a third-line center. That’s not a bad deal. Not bad at all, and McGroarty’s advanced readiness for the NHL is a tidy little bonus that reshapes what was otherwise a messy offseason. The Michigan banger is an intriguing combination that should give coach Mike Sullivan some options he likes rather than patching up the rest.