Gauging Erik Karlsson’s Trade Value

Even the Pittsburgh Penguins’ trade for Erik Karlsson on Aug. 6, 2023, was a complicated mess that ended weeks of drama.

Did the Penguins give up a first and second-round pick for Karlsson? Did they give up those two picks and a top-six center in Mikael Granlund? Or did they give up those two picks so that the San Jose Sharks and Montreal Canadiens would eat the unwieldy salaries of Granlund, Jan Rutta, and Jeff Petry, paving the way for the Karlsson trade?

The perspectives on that will shape the following question: What is Karlsson worth on the trade market in 2025?

Pundits, analysts, and journalists have opined and reported for a couple of months on the possibility, but no one is closer to an answer. The first hurdle is that Karlsson holds the leverage in a deal. Or, at least he does in theory because of his no-movement clause.

However, it’s time to get real on the NMC. The Penguins are entering a rebuild, and he has only two years remaining on his contract, which will expire when he’s 37 years old. If he’s serious about getting back to the playoffs and having a real chance at a Stanley Cup, like a Flyers jersey in August, Pittsburgh is not the place for him.

Having spoken to Karlsson often over the last two seasons, and being the first to have that uncomfortable conversation about a trade last January, it is my impression that Karlsson is an intelligent human. His intelligence isn’t contained to the ice, but he’s an aware individual. He also has a good humor about himself and his situation; he badly wants a Stanley Cup, but his life will not be incomplete without one.

Perhaps he will view his career as incomplete, but not his life. As we reported then, and it remains true today: he’s open to the possibility.

He also knows how good he can be. With a little wink and smile, he deflected a question about his outstanding work at the Four Nations tournament in February. So, if he knows how good he is, then he surely knows, or at least has an opinion, on why he was too rarely that player in a Penguins sweater.

Was it because he felt constricted to puck-movement breakouts in former coach Mike Sullivan’s system? Did he not jell with the team?

General manager Kyle Dubas admitted to a long meeting with Karlsson after the season, on breakup day. Dubas and Karlsson are in some ways similar people. The are often some of the smartest people in the room, and as a result, they want their way. I would have bought tickets for that discussion as it probably laid bare so many issues and future possibilities with a bit of tension and humor.

The Fit & the Future

Sure, new coach Dan Muse might design a system that plays more to Karlsson’s strengths, but the Penguins are in transition. Winning in the immediate isn’t as important as creating a winner.

In short, Karlsson doesn’t fit, and that fact lowers his value by a little. His $10 million salary cap hit is also somewhat troublesome, as he hasn’t shown to be a $10 million defender during his time with the Penguins.

If Dubas hopes to recoup some value and move forward, the Penguins will need to eat some salary, and probably more than they want. The number tossed about is $2.5 million, but to get a full return from a contending team, Karlsson will need to be as affordable as possible because contenders don’t often have tons of cap space.

And Karlsson is due a whopping $5 million signing bonus on July 1. That surely isn’t an impediment to a trade, as some have suggested, but it is a negotiating point. The Penguins could pay it, offer to split it, or dump it on a team for a trade to occur before July 1.

What really lowers his value is the subpar season he submitted in 2024-25. Not coincidentally, the Penguins’ best stretch of hockey was mid-November through late December. The team climbed back into the playoff race as Karlsson played his best hockey as a Penguin.

By later January, the Penguins were falling out of the race, and Karlsson’s play had tapered off. In this case, statistics are not just irrelevant, but misleading. Most defensemen would like to score 53 points in 82 games, but his minus-24 was just two shy of his career worst and indicative of the number of goals scored against Karlsson’s defensive pairings.

However, a rebuilding team with a rookie head coach probably does not need Karlsson’s headstrong insights and certainly not his frustrations if the season goes poorly.

And so, Karlsson’s trade value is in the eye of the beholder. There will not be a long list of teams vying for his services, nor will the Penguins recoup anything resembling a first and second-round pick with a 60-point center attached. In fact, it seems quite unlikely that the Penguins would even get a first-round pick.

Last summer, the Washington Capitals acquired Jakob Chychrun from Ottawa for defenseman Nick Jensen and a third-round pick. But there isn’t a comparable player to Karlsson across the NHL, one who could be the best in the league for an entire season, as evidenced by three Norris Trophies, or one of the worst on any given night.

A third-round pick and a player do seem to be an appropriate ask. As does a prospect and a second-rounder. Or, simply, a younger player the Penguins believe they can use.

Of course, if we polled 32 GMs as to Karlsson’s value, there might be 64 answers to that question. But now isn’t the time to be picky.

Ultimately, the Penguins need to make the deal, and finding another team that needs to make it will be the challenge, and what makes the trade work. Surely, there will be a few teams whose free agent trees are not filled with presents and whose stockings were filled with coal after the July 1 holiday, and Karlsson might then be far more attractive.