Kingerski: Dubas Must Upgrade Trade Targets
The Pittsburgh Penguins’ trade acquisitions this season were names that rightfully didn’t generate much excitement. Salary dumps, spare parts, and second chances rather than established veterans with predictable production comprise general manager Kyle Dubas’s transaction list.
There was one trade that helped the near and long-term future of the franchise: When Dubas swapped his 2023 first-round pick, Brayden Yager, for the Winnipeg Jets’ unsigned 2022 first-round pick, Rutger McGroarty.
And those are the deals that Dubas needs to repeat. No more scraps.
In that context of trades that didn’t pay off, it should be no wonder the Penguins missed the playoffs for the third year running. Yet the losing still disgusted the veterans for whom winning and playoff appearances were annual custom, and wasted yet another extraordinary season by Sidney Crosby with linemates Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell.
For an NHL record 20th consecutive season, Crosby averaged more than a point per game. Rakell and Rust set career highs with 35 and 31 goals, respectively.
The Penguins’ problems were as plentiful as glaring. Of course, the defense was anything but. The middle six had stretches that enticed optimism but otherwise offered subpar production. The goaltending struggled.
However, the bulk of Dubas’s receivables didn’t offer much help.
Read More: Penguins Grades: Problems for Trade Acquisitions
Kevin Hayes shuffled around the lineup, but his time as the third-line center was inconsistent, and ultimately, his season ended with just 23 points. PHN offered a D grade on his season, which included fewer than 100 shots in 64 games.
Cody Glass was the first acquisition last summer. He showed a strong defensive game on a team that struggled mightily with that commitment, but added just four goals and 11 assists in 51 games. Philip Tomasimo also had only 23 points despite significant time in offensive roles in the middle-six.
Connor Dewar and Conor Timmins were gifts from the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for only a fifth-round pick. They flashed potential, but Dewar’s contributions are suited for fourth-line defensive duty, and the Penguins have a plethora of those types.
Timmins was caught in the blender of the blue line chaos, sometimes playing on his backhand with fellow righty Erik Karlsson, as former coach Mike Sullivan oddly paired two right-handers on the second pairing and two lefties on the third.
Dubas’s Hotel Opportunity didn’t necessarily yield any results that will impact the Penguins’ rebuild, unless one factors the accompanying draft picks affixed to Hayes and Glass as part of salary dumps (Dubas also flipped Glass to New Jersey for a third-round pick).
The jury is still out on Tomasino, but a decision is looming and may not be a favorable verdict. Timmins might be the one who sticks long term because he’s a 26-year-old defenseman who can be physical, skate, and move the puck. Perhaps in a better situation, the Penguins will see a more reliable defenseman. Timmins’s inconsistent play was as much the result of the situation as it might have been his own shortcomings.
And so the larger question is whether Dubas should once again trawl the depths of the NHL rosters looking to give second chances and uncover improperly used gems?
No.
It is time to upgrade the quality of acquisitions to more projectable players.
It’s about the future, but the low-rent gambles actually both took opportunity and time away from players who could be there for the turnaround.
Furthermore, looming at the top of the 2026 NHL Draft is phenom Gavin McKenna, a franchise cornerstone center who ranks in the realm of the Macklin Celebrini, Connor Bedard, or who knows how much better.
The top of the 2026 draft includes a handful of players currently viewed by scouts as standouts.
Answering the same question in a different way, Dubas must be patient, no longer stuffing his roster with castoffs who are unlikely to produce more than they have, and exclusively hunt for keepers while maximizing his 2026 draft position.
Simply, it’s time to upgrade his target list to higher-profile, younger NHL players or prospects who can be reasonably assumed to make an impact.
Then, plug the existing holes with more reliable veterans, as the Penguins did with Matt Grzelcyk and Anthony Beauvillier. Dubas curiously kept Grzelcyk at the deadline as teams didn’t line up for his services, but Beauvillier brought a second-round pick in return.
If reports, conjecture, and reading between the lines of Dubas’s postseason comments when terminating Sullivan, as well as Sullivan’s noticeable reticence to embrace unconditional opportunities for likely lower-ceiling players, Dubas seems to be preparing for a longer rebuild.
The Penguins’ draft pick wallet is full. They don’t need more second or third-round picks; they’re unlikely to use all of the ones they’ve already acquired.
Dubas needs to find cornerstone pieces to go with his promising rookies, including McGroarty and Ville Koivunen. Selecting near the top of the draft is the traditional route. After all, your own high draft pick doesn’t cost additional assets … only a losing season. Or two.
Or three more.
The other avenue available to the Penguins is the NHL trade market, but there are few opportunities.
Indeed, despite our impatience and desire to quickly turn the corner of the rebuild, it is Dubas who must remain patient–more patient than we on the outside. Dubas’s trade targets should be relegated to only sure things, like McGroarty, who will be a Penguin for the long haul, instead of dumps and disposable gambles like Tomasino. Plug holes with dependable veterans who can be traded, just like Beauvillier and before him, Lars Eller.
Not adding enough bricks in the foundation over the next few offseasons might very well bring about the need to do it all over again.
Categorized:Penguins Penguins Analysis Penguins Offseason Analysis
Well said.
Yes. As far as the veterans go, I’d offer Marchand 4.75 mil by 2 or maybe 3 years. He could be a 3rd line scoring threat and be able to play top line minutes with either Crosby or 2nd with Malkin.
We need another 37 year old like we need an another hole in the head.
Marchand wants to win. We could offer him $2M/yr more than you’re offering and he’d stay in Florida where the team is good and there’s no state income tax. The Pens have to *overpay* to get a free agent. We aren’t what we were.
He may do so this year. You’re partially correct. However, the Pens are not like other franchises, the positive culture is still there with Crosby and the organization and it’s typically been feast or famine with the roster and the results. The 6 teams with no state income tax is a financial benefit, but players still owe US federal, CAN federal, other state/local income tax and provincial income tax because it’s based on where they play/practice, and they’re paying a tax professional to determine their liability. So they get the break on 41 home games, but these clubs are subject… Read more »
I think the Pirates may have some bricks available (I kid). They certainly need an additional player or three who can put puck on net. Which I would prefer to a full scale D overhaul, but they do need at least one top pairing LD from outside the organization, assuming Pickering and Brunicke are ready for a full season NHL assignment, not necessarily as a pairing. Momentum needs to begin this off-season.
Hey Dan, do you have insight into how GMs discuss college players that have indicated they aren’t going to sign with the team that drafted them? Does an inquiring GM have to make the trade before they can even determine if the player is interested in their organization? I’d expect it’s just like trading for a pending UFA at the deadline but this feels like it might be different (but maybe because I’d like it to be).
Generally, GMs hold onto the player assuming he will sign. It’s only until they learn differently that trades happen–My recollection without any great research is that the going rate is a commensurate draft pick. For example, the Penguins acquired John Marino for a 6th rounder because that’s what he was.
Why was the Leafs former GM so highly touted ? OMFG
AGREED!
Good Stuff Dan, given what they did with Yager last season. Do you see a scenario where the same situation happens with Pickering? Love Pickering, but it seems like he could bring in a upgrade at D – thoughts?
I really like Owen Pickering, and I think he’s got a hockey brain that will keep developing. Having written that, if there’s a chance to upgrade, I could see it happening. However, the absence of Mike Sullivan also affects that calculus. My previous criticisms of Sullivan and the veterans in the Pickering situation still stand.
Agree with your thesis, Dan. Center and defensemen upgrades have to be quality, whether prospects or young nhl types. 3rd and 4th line wingers are where you can take a chance this year. Next year wingers need to be quality as well, as we fill out the roster.
Agree with the sentiment, but how do you expect him to get “ higher-profile, younger NHL players or prospects who can be reasonably assumed to make an impact”?
The top 1/3 of the league wants impact free agents. The bottom 2/3 all want young, good (projectable) talent. Demand far exceeds supply.
It does. And it costs. The Penguins have veteran players as well as a treasure trove of draft picks. Sometimes, the cost is more than you want to give, as in the case of McGroarty’s trade.
“It (demand for talented hockey players) does (far exceed supply).”
In the absence of a surfeit of talented players my question is whether there is any other rational
explanation than the desire for more $ on the part of the owners to explain the renewed interest in diluting the level of the existing talent through expansion, particularly to a 2X loser like Atlanta?
Money for the owners and more players in the NHLPA union. Both sides get something, and the fans suffer because we have to watch Glass, Tomisino, Acciari, Nieto, POJ, etc.
Mcgroarty, Koivunen and Pickering are still a few years away from really making a significant impact. Crosby can make anyone look good offensively, so Rust and Rakell as 1 line is probably the worst 1st line aside from Maybe Chicago or Seattle and that is because of Crosby. If they go after a free agent, they need a Marner level player. Then they also need to get another like Boeser or Sam Bennett. That will allow for options to put with Crosby. If Pittsburgh goes into the season with Crosby, Rust and Rakell as the first line, Gavin Mckenna has… Read more »
I could see (expect) 87 alone keeping the team out of the McKenna sweepstakes.🙂
Rust, Crosby, and Rakell, a line where each player scored 30 goals, is the worst 1st line in the league?
That wasn’t me. The top line is the only place we don’t need changes.
I think trade targets should be Byram, Hague, Peterka, Quinn, Dach, Howard(TB-college player who doesn’t want to sign there). Also let Hallender, Broz, Pickering and Brunicke play.
Not sure what the Pens have to trade that anyone else wants besides Crosby. This really looks a lot like the Red Wings when the bottom fell out. Overpaying the stars of the past and giving them term to show respect. Absolutely nothing wrong with that. They brought Cups to town, and that is the hardest thing to do.
The longer you try to win the longer the rebuild will take. Getting stuck in the “Mushy Middle” can last decades.
🎯 Greg, you made your pointed comment 10 days ago and no one has provided a substantive response; what does Dubas have to offer that anyone else would want that would generate a worthwhile return? The silence in response has been deafening. For example, there have been repeated suggestions since you made your comment that the Penguins should trade for two of the Buffalo Sabres best players; Peterka and Byrum (spellings??). To my fellow amateur GMs, if you were the Sabres GM who is it on the Penguins team you believe would get Buffalo over the hump and into the… Read more »
Anyone who doubts the value of what Dubas is doing have a look at this
https://capwages.com/trade-tree/2024-03-07-CAR-PIT
He turned Guentzel and Ty Smith into:
Koivenen, Lucius, Ponomorov, and Novak plus 2024 2nd & 5th, plus 2026 2nd, and a 2027 4th. That’s a young centre, three prospects, 2 2nds, a fourth and a fifth. That is how you accumulate assets.
Stop with the data! 🙂
This was his one good move. The rest were either a wash or a downright failure.