Kingerski: Penguins, Dubas Might Be Stuck

There is a brewing problem with the Pittsburgh Penguins’ rebuild.

Well, they’re not urgent issues, but they are troubles beyond the normal process of finding the right players, coach, and young players who are worthy of keeping around beyond the organization’s hopefully short transition period to rock bottom and upward in the standings toward Stanley Cup contention.

With human beings, there will always be mistakes, and general manager Kyle Dubas has already taken a couple of mulligans on contracts dished out during his first days on the job in 2023. But those contracts to goaltender Tristan Jarry and defenseman Ryan Graves were delivered when the mission was different; the Penguins were trying to salvage one more playoff run for Sidney Crosby and the championship core.

And so the trade for Erik Karlsson also happened.

Those moves led them to the need to rebuild post haste, as each played a role in the Penguins’ collapse this season. If not for a late winning streak, the Penguins were in contention for a top-five draft pick.

That high pick would have been a huge blessing for the rebuild. And the team might still get the required top-six center if Roger McQueen falls to them at No. 11 in the draft, or a bedrock middle-six pivot if Brady Martin is available.

In the moment, the late-season winning ways seemed to be beneficial as the team preserved its identity and pride, and made it easier to plug-and-play young players, including Rutger McGroarty and Ville Koivunen. There was real benefit if the team hoped for a quick turnaround. However, that was before Dubas pushed the reset button and cleansed the bench of Mike Sullivan, who wanted that short turnaround rebuild, and opted for coach Dan Muse, who was hired for his work with young players.

In the bright sunshine (or constant rain) of the early summer, the Penguins’ rebuild is taking on a new, and possibly problematic position: They might not stink next year.

In fact, they might be a competitive team, right in the middle, with a chance to make the playoffs. The Penguins’ top six might be quite good with McGroarty and Koivunen, in addition to one or both of Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell side-saddling Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

For the concern about Malkin’s natural late career regression, he makes just over $6 million. He remains a solid second-line center option, even if we think he’d be a better winger at this stage of his career.

Some younger players already in the organization, such as Tristan Broz, and younger players who will be trade acquisitions, could further burnish the production of the forwards crew.

Heck, if they add a player such as Nic Hague, K’Andre Miller, and/or subtract Erik Karlsson, even the Penguins’ defense could be significantly improved. What happens if the Penguins have a competent top six, solid bottom six, and an improved albeit mediocre defense?

What happens if Jarry is at least consistently average? Or if Sergei Murashov demands an NHL job by December and is as good as hoped?

You might be thinking, that’s the plan, dummy!

Well, not quite. The timing is off.

There has been a thought which has been percolating in various forms finally crystallized this week. The problem with the Penguins’ rebuild is that they’re still built on Crosby. Every good player that Dubas adds right now only increases the shallowness of the rebuild and the middling effects.

It would instead seem there is a great possibility that Dubas can add significant pieces very quickly, but eventually be left without a foundation for the myriad of complementary pieces, thus creating another transition period.

Is it possible to add all of the pieces around Crosby, and then fill the enormous roles which Crosby has filled when necessary to achieve the stated goal of returning to contention for a long period of time?

It’s a gambit that there will eventually be a free agent worthy and willing to lead the next era.

For those who have advocated a more significant roster purge leading to losing and high draft picks, the Penguins’ current position has changed to validate that position (though I can’t say it was necessarily true two months ago). It seems Dubas should indeed trade away as many veterans this summer and next season as possible, including Karlsson, Kris Letang, and Rakell. The cutting shouldn’t stop there, either, but the remainder of veterans such as Kevin Hayes and Noel Acciari are unlikely to bring much, if anything, in return.

If the Penguins are to return to contending for the long term, they’re actually on the verge of being too good, too quickly, to do so because they will deny themselves a high draft pick or two.

Too good to lose, not good enough to contend for more than a moment.

In fairness, it seems Dubas’s blitzkrieg acquiring draft picks could yield more immediate dividends via trade for young players or upwards in the draft, rather than waiting until 2027 for extra third-rounders. Or, next year, perhaps in two years, the proper free agent could spring the Penguins back to another decade of chasing the Stanley Cup with realistic intentions as Dubas’s potential cavalcade of young players reaches successful NHL readiness.

Right now, it seems more like a game of Perfection. The children’s game matching shapes to spots before the board explodes, throwing everything back into chaos. On the current pace, the Penguins’ Perfection board is about to pop in two or three years, setting everything back when Crosby steps away. Dubas has charted a unique course, and the race is not only against others but an inverted race against their own players maturing and becoming necessary trade chips for a revamped revamp already stuck in the middle.