Kingerski: Dubas Mistakes Cost Crosby; Time Running Out
Sidney Crosby is too diplomatic or loyal to think it, much less say it.
As the second season of general manager Kyle Dubas closes Thursday when the Penguins slide through Game 82 against the Washington Capitals in a game that will feature at least one all-time great who broke a long-standing Wayne Gretzky record, so too will the initial promises and goals set forth at the beginning of Dubas’s tenure officially end in failure.
The Penguins have turned the page toward the future, at least higher up. Coach Mike Sullivan rebuffed this writer last week when asked if the emergence of rookies Rutger McGroarty and Ville Koivunen added optimism to the current situation. Sullivan dismissively said, “No, that’s for you guys. You guys love to talk about that stuff.”
The coach sang a slightly different tune on Wednesday. At least this time, Sullivan admitted that he is involved in the conversations about the future direction.
“We’ve certainly had discussions about where we’re at and strategizing on where we want to go and how to get there. There are different ways to do that, and some teams want to strip the team right down to the studs; that’s one strategy. There are others that have reshaped their teams on the fly. Washington is an example of that,” said Sullivan on Wednesday. There are a number of those examples. I know Kyle’s done a deep dive on all of those different examples, and then (we’re) looking at our team and trying to strategize as a group on what makes the most sense for this organization, where we’re at right now and how to return this group to a Stanley Cup contender and competitive organization.”
But the focus is now on Dubas.
Mistakes and Misses
The decisions not only on direction but also the personnel to fill those spots rest on him. Two years ago, Dubas sought to build a competitive team around the Penguins’ core without compromising their future. That motivation was the impetus for acquiring Erik Karlsson, giving Ryan Graves a six-year deal, and signing Tristan Jarry to a five-year contract.
While it seems Jarry might rebound, the first two years of his deal were not adequate. Graves has been a square peg. Karlsson has defended with disinterest, and his 38 even-strength points this season are offset by a minus-27 rating, the worst of his career.
The defense was less than adequate last season, and Dubas’s solution was Matt Grzelcyk. Later, he added P.O Joseph, whose contributions were cut short by injury. Joseph would be a fine third-pair defenseman, but necessity has pressed him into much greater service.
The reclamation projects added this season have yielded tepid results. Philip Tomasino is a one-dimensional player trying to add layers to his game, but asking a player to remodel his game has gone about as well as it sounds. Tomasino has just 21 points (10-11-21) in 49 games, and 38% of his points have been on the power play.
Other additions denote a team not trying to win. Conor Timmins has been tough around the net but inconsistent elsewhere, while Matt Grzelcyk has been OK, and Kevin Hayes has been below average.
Dubas raked in a second and third-round pick for Hayes, but the Penguins have another year of Hayes and his $3.5 million salary cap hit.
Setting the Scene
Last season, the Penguins were a little bit of help away from being a competitive team. That help never arrived.
This season, the Penguins needed help at the beginning, as the situation was clearly teetering on the edge of a hard and fast decline. The mix was obviously wrong from the beginning, but the only move was for Tomasino.
Crosby and his linemates played with heart and carried the team. Without Crosby, the Penguins could very well be a bottom-three team. Yet, toward the end of December, they made a playoff push before the problems became too great.
January and February were abysmal. Marcus Pettersson and Drew O’Connor fetched a nice haul via trade with Vancouver, but lineup replacements or help in other areas were not found. The decline hastened.
The Penguins drafted 14th overall in 2023. They would have drafted 14th overall in 2024 had they not traded their first-rounder for Karlsson. And in 2025, they’ll finish between 7th and 9th worst.
The high pick is despite another unbelievable season by Crosby.
If history is any indication, he’ll get at least a point Thursday night in the season finale to finish with his third-straight 90-point season. He broke Gretzky’s record of consecutive point-per-game seasons (19) and has earned his fourth straight season with at least 30 goals.
Crosby has held up his end of the bargain. For that matter, so has Evgeni Malkin. While he’s obviously in decline, 50 points in 67 games is a fine output for a $6.1 million second-line center.
Dubas has necessarily changed his tune from retooling on the fly to revamping. Quite frankly, it’s a rebuild while holding onto three or four players. Crosby, Bryan Rust, and Rickard Rakell had spectacular seasons. The latter two had career years in goal scoring and points.
But no one else did. Until the recent rookie callups, Malkin was playing with a hodgepodge of wingers more suited for AHL or fourth-line duty. What could another scoring winger have done for the team?
Dubas painted himself into a corner with his early misses. There’s been no coming back from it. The rebuild at this time is not because Crosby is 37, but the direct result of those big plays that didn’t pan out. So, his efforts quickly shifted from trying to win to a managed decline, although he never admitted to the latter.
However, Dubas has a lot to prove. The “mode of being impatient” that Fenway Sports Group principal Tom Werner termed the ownership’s expectations means that Dubas must turn the team around quickly.
However, after McGroarty and Koivunen, there isn’t yet much on the way. Owen Pickering will be a nice defenseman next season. Tristan Broz may break through next season or by mid-season, but otherwise, acquisitions of Tommy Novak, Timmins, Dewar, and a cavalcade of draft picks are what the Penguins have to show for their efforts.
The draft picks Dubas stockpiled are second and third-round picks, which generally carry about a 9% chance of finding an impact player. That number shrinks dramatically if you’re looking for a top-six center or top-four defenseman.
Dubas missed his first chance to support one last run for Crosby. If there’s any hope to give Crosby another chance at the playoffs before he hangs up his skates and the hockey world is infinitely poorer for it, Dubas must come through this offseason.
He doesn’t have time to punt or wait. He must aggressively work to turn the corner now if Crosby is to take part. Crosby signed a two-year extension that kicks in for next season, but after that, there is no guarantee to see No. 87 on the ice.
This will be summer No. 3 for Dubas, and if the conversation hasn’t turned by next summer, he, too, will be working against time, just like Crosby.
The offseason begins tomorrow. Start the clock.
Categorized:Opinion Penguins Penguins Analysis
Very good assessment of the situation!
An excellent assessment of Dubas, but more succinctly, you could write “Dubas Stinks so far in Pittsburgh” and it would amount to the same thing.
I would almost say he missed it two times in a row. Trading for Karl’s was the first time he tried and and missed. This past year he didn’t even try.
Dan…..agree that he made some bad assessments on talent. But, let’s face it….he was cap strapped and had to get bargains where he could. Hextall and Burke already had Dubas painted in a corner with their lack of GM ability. Jarry and Graves contracts were huge mistakes. Karlsson has been because nobody they could pair with him is a shutdown, stay at home D-man. Graves was supposed to be that guy and Pettersson was supposed to be with Tanger. 2 years ago….this looked good on paper. Heck, 3 years ago these entire NHL thought Jarry was a breakout goalie who… Read more »
I think it was pretty knowable that when Jarry signed the contract it was a bad idea. We’d seen him melt down or be unavailable when the chips were down. Graves was a disaster too. So bad that it’s hard to understand the thinking. When Jarry, Karlsson or Graves are on the ice together in any combination, they threaten to undo an entire game’s worth of work at any time. We cannot hold leads in large part because of these 3. So, that’s 1/4 of the cap spent on abysmal defense and goaltending. Can’t win that way.
I dont think you can put Jarry in with Karlsoson and Graves. He tends to deal with the results. No goalie faired much better. Jeremy Swayman had a worse save % than Jarry yet he got paid a ton. I have said this all year, it is nkt the goaltending, it is the defense and total team defense.
Dubas needs to make some major moves to over haul the defense and infuse youth. The unfortunate part is can’t imagine any other team wants Karlsson or Graves. Maybe Letang goes to LTIR or retires. Should be an interesting off season to say the least.
Great stuff, Dan. Dubas walked into a mess, think busted gas station bathroom, and now he’s realizing there’s no TP either. Every fix seems to cause another leak, and he’s got to figure out how to clean it up with limited tools.That’s why he needs to go big. If Marner’s truly available, Dubas better throw the kitchen sink at it. No trade assets lost, just cap space, and the Penguins need an impact player with term in the worst way. Landing someone like that could also open the door to moving Rust or Rakell, freeing up room to inject much-needed… Read more »
Nice Jeff Reed reference!
Never want to root against the Pens, but really hoping for any sort of loss coupled with any sort of Sabres win against the Flyers. The Pens can’t get below the Flyers (6th pick) due to regulation wins but 7th pick would feel better than 8th or 9th. The easiest route to the 7th pick is any type of loss with any type of Sabres win. The Pens just really need Buffalo to get 1-2 points while the Pens get 0. 7th pick: any loss with any Sabres win, regulation loss with Sabres OT loss 8th pick: OT win, OT… Read more »
Totally agree, Aaron. Moving up just one spot or dropping 1 might seem minor, but in the right draft, it can be the difference between a solid pick and landing a legit impact player who unexpectedly slides. See Demidov and Michkov. Draft day is unpredictable, some GMs are geniuses, others… not so much. We’ve seen both kinds up close. Honestly, I’m hoping they lose in regulation tonight and Buffalo grabs at least a point. Picking 7th puts them in a stronger position to snag someone like O’Brien or Eklund, and it slightly bumps their odds for a top-2 pick. And… Read more »
mistake 1: Dubas kept Sullivan as Head Coach
mistake 2: nothing matters until he fix mistake 1
It’s dumbfounding to me that it always seems to be Kyle’s problem.
SPOT ON!!! FIRE SULLY!!!
Mistake #1 – FSG hired Dumbass
Amen!
”And in 2025, they’ll finish between 7th and 9th worst”.
I reckon Pittsburgh secured the 8th spot, since Anaheim lost their last game in ot.
And if the penguins lose their last game in regulation, and the Flyers beat the Sabres in ot, it’ll become a nr six pick, if I’m not mistaken.
If the Pens win in regulation, they will be tied with the Ducks in regulation wins but will have 2 more regulation/OT wins than the Ducks, thus sliding the Pens down to the 9th pick. They cannot slide into the 6th pick because they have more regulation and regulation/OT wins than the Flyers
Ok! Maybe I didn’t get that right. I thought total wins overall was the nr. 1 tie-breaker, and rw was nr 2.
Sorry
I wish the tie breaker was total wins, it would make more sense! Unfortunately it’s regulation wins, then regulation+OT wins, then total wins, then head-to-head. If they shifted to the 3-2-1 system (3 points for regulation win, 2 for OT/shootout win, 1 for OT/shootout loss), it would be much better.
“Joseph would be a fine third-pair defenseman…”
No. If he is on this roster as a #5 or #6, next year will be another miss. I’m tired of watching him get rag-dolled, bowled over, and pushed around at the front of the net. Time to move on. Or convert him to a LW on the 4th line.
Put away the violins already. Crosby is getting what he wanted and deserved. The guy knew what he was getting into when his two washed BFFs signed hideous contract extensions. He’s not a Kid any more.
Yep, seems like they won’t focus on the long-term organization until Sid’s gone. We already know you can’t build for the future while chasing a Cup and the results this season should have been expected and not surprising. What did folks upset about this think was really going to happen?
I really though this team had a shot at the cup this season. 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭
No you didn’t. And you won’t next year either, right Robert? 🙂
Truth. Unless Dubas can pull off a bunch of trades to vastly improve the team this offseason, they should be close to the bottom of the league.
The power play kept the Pens out of playoffs last season. This year, they fixed the power play but their lack of defense (only Chicago & SJ allowed more goals) ended their season early.
Fortunately, defensive Dmen tend to be cheaper than point producers. Unfortunately, the Pens have shown no interest in stiffening their blue line.
That’s a pretty simple fix to be more competitive and make the goalies better. It’s not exciting like signing Marner or Boeser but it might be more effective.
The Erik Karlsson deal may end up being the worst deal by Pens in Crosby era. It was a gamble, many of us worried about fit and tension with Letang, but tried to latch on to hope that the team would turn into NHL version of 90’s era Chicago Bulls. Instead, they became 80s era Denver Nuggets (score 150 and lose). I don’t think they get back to playoffs until they move on from EK 65 (or Tanger). Also, i don’t agree that PO Joseph is a solid NHL d-man. Hopefully Pickering, Brunicke and St. Ivany can have long AHL… Read more »
I would do the trade over again. The trade itself was 100% a win. Unfortunately, Karlsson didn’t fit on the team. Anyone watching this team could have made an educated guess that he wouldn’t mesh well. Dubas wanted to make a big splash, he did, but then he sank to the bottom. If he can find a way to reverse the moves which haven’t worked out will be a huge determining factor on how long the penguins will miss the playoffs.
Nope, the trade was good, Dubas in one swoop cleaned most of the Hextall mistakes. In the end Karlsson didn’t worked under Sullivan system, like most of the players too. You see him playing under Sweden coach or under Penguins coach, two different players.
I think the best they can hope for next year is a shot at the first round in playoffs. They need to rebuild their defense first and foremost then 2C and scoring wingers. They can do two of three next season. The rest will have to wait. I weight defense and strength in the center but who knows.
Lol, you guys were creaming in your pants when Duby traded for 65 and dumped 3 horrible contracts in the process. Graves was a career + 89 when he was signed and was one of the top sought after free agents that summer. For some reason these guys forget how to play hockey when they get here, but that’s another story… 71 and 58 put a huge drain on the cap space. Tanger would be a 3rd pair Dman on any decent team, Geno would be lucky to be a 3C.
Yes it is funny how many guys came in here and forgot how to play and/or left here and found success elsewhere! Sounds like Sully is THE PROBLEM to me! FIRE SULLY!
Yep
I think “that” is the *entire* story. Why does it happen and keep happening?
I know Sid has had a great season and EK65 has been horrible, but this is the 2nd article that you pointed out that EK65 is minus 29, while Sid himself(not you) had to mention that he is minus 22(entire line is about that). I think they are pressing to score too much and F3 not back enough. Also did not help that our genius coach put them out there with EK65 and Gryz for much of the season. (Pairing 2-175 lb. defensemen, what a great idea!!!)
Time for everyone to bring out the pitchforks and torches….. I don’t think Ryan Graves is a bad player. He had success in Colorado and New Jersey. When Dubas signed him, the consensus opinion from knowledgable writers like Friedman and Lebrun (plus many others) was the Penguins were getting an upgrade from Brian Dumolin – younger, better skater, better offense, equivalent defense. The only question I saw was the term of the deal and not the money, but since the Pens were trying to add and make the push for a cup, it was deemed to be worthwhile. Graves simply… Read more »
I’m so old I remember the old adage that since you can’t fire the whole team, you gotta fire the…
Unbelievable. Once again you give Sully a pass. 7 years without a playoff series win but he’s a freakin genius. I will not buy another ticket until they FIRE SULLY! His system sucks. His ability to prepare the team sucks. His ability to motivate sucks. He NEVER holds vets accountable for lazy stupid play.
Malkin is not an acceptable 2C anymore.
Pens needs:
1. New Coach.
2. At least 2 BIG real D men
3. 2C
No more small guys!!!
You’ll have to get over it
No skin off my nose if they want to stay stupid. Keep Sully, keep losing!
First it was RH, now it’s KD.
What is management thinking hiring these guys. Poor management, post ML.
If Dubas was as bad as yall making him out to be, he wouldn’t have been named GM for Canada in the upcoming tournament.. Dubas has done A Helluva job with what he walked into and what he’s been strapped with his first 2 seasons.. Being Handcuffed to An Aging core with limited or no move clauses would be enough, but add the state of things that were tossed in his lap from the real Incompetent jags before him and you have a monumental task undertaken… Bottom line, this teams in full rebuild mode weather anyone (Core Included) wants to… Read more »