Kingerski: Dubas Mistakes Cost Crosby; Time Running Out

Sidney Crosby is too diplomatic or loyal to think it, much less say it.

As the second season of general manager Kyle Dubas closes Thursday when the Penguins slide through Game 82 against the Washington Capitals in a game that will feature at least one all-time great who broke a long-standing Wayne Gretzky record, so too will the initial promises and goals set forth at the beginning of Dubas’s tenure officially end in failure.

The Penguins have turned the page toward the future, at least higher up. Coach Mike Sullivan rebuffed this writer last week when asked if the emergence of rookies Rutger McGroarty and Ville Koivunen added optimism to the current situation. Sullivan dismissively said, “No, that’s for you guys. You guys love to talk about that stuff.”

The coach sang a slightly different tune on Wednesday. At least this time, Sullivan admitted that he is involved in the conversations about the future direction.

“We’ve certainly had discussions about where we’re at and strategizing on where we want to go and how to get there. There are different ways to do that, and some teams want to strip the team right down to the studs; that’s one strategy. There are others that have reshaped their teams on the fly. Washington is an example of that,” said Sullivan on Wednesday. There are a number of those examples. I know Kyle’s done a deep dive on all of those different examples, and then (we’re) looking at our team and trying to strategize as a group on what makes the most sense for this organization, where we’re at right now and how to return this group to a Stanley Cup contender and competitive organization.”

But the focus is now on Dubas.

Mistakes and Misses

The decisions not only on direction but also the personnel to fill those spots rest on him. Two years ago, Dubas sought to build a competitive team around the Penguins’ core without compromising their future. That motivation was the impetus for acquiring Erik Karlsson, giving Ryan Graves a six-year deal, and signing Tristan Jarry to a five-year contract.

While it seems Jarry might rebound, the first two years of his deal were not adequate. Graves has been a square peg. Karlsson has defended with disinterest, and his 38 even-strength points this season are offset by a minus-27 rating, the worst of his career.

The defense was less than adequate last season, and Dubas’s solution was Matt Grzelcyk. Later, he added P.O Joseph, whose contributions were cut short by injury. Joseph would be a fine third-pair defenseman, but necessity has pressed him into much greater service.

The reclamation projects added this season have yielded tepid results. Philip Tomasino is a one-dimensional player trying to add layers to his game, but asking a player to remodel his game has gone about as well as it sounds. Tomasino has just 21 points (10-11-21) in 49 games, and 38% of his points have been on the power play.

Other additions denote a team not trying to win. Conor Timmins has been tough around the net but inconsistent elsewhere, while Matt Grzelcyk has been OK,  and Kevin Hayes has been below average.

Dubas raked in a second and third-round pick for Hayes, but the Penguins have another year of Hayes and his $3.5 million salary cap hit.

Setting the Scene

Last season, the Penguins were a little bit of help away from being a competitive team. That help never arrived.

This season, the Penguins needed help at the beginning, as the situation was clearly teetering on the edge of a hard and fast decline. The mix was obviously wrong from the beginning, but the only move was for Tomasino.

Crosby and his linemates played with heart and carried the team. Without Crosby, the Penguins could very well be a bottom-three team. Yet, toward the end of December, they made a playoff push before the problems became too great.

January and February were abysmal. Marcus Pettersson and Drew O’Connor fetched a nice haul via trade with Vancouver, but lineup replacements or help in other areas were not found. The decline hastened.

The Penguins drafted 14th overall in 2023. They would have drafted 14th overall in 2024 had they not traded their first-rounder for Karlsson. And in 2025, they’ll finish between 7th and 9th worst.

The high pick is despite another unbelievable season by Crosby.

If history is any indication, he’ll get at least a point Thursday night in the season finale to finish with his third-straight 90-point season. He broke Gretzky’s record of consecutive point-per-game seasons (19) and has earned his fourth straight season with at least 30 goals.

Crosby has held up his end of the bargain. For that matter, so has Evgeni Malkin. While he’s obviously in decline, 50 points in 67 games is a fine output for a $6.1 million second-line center.

Dubas has necessarily changed his tune from retooling on the fly to revamping. Quite frankly, it’s a rebuild while holding onto three or four players. Crosby, Bryan Rust, and Rickard Rakell had spectacular seasons. The latter two had career years in goal scoring and points.

But no one else did. Until the recent rookie callups, Malkin was playing with a hodgepodge of wingers more suited for AHL or fourth-line duty. What could another scoring winger have done for the team?

Dubas painted himself into a corner with his early misses. There’s been no coming back from it. The rebuild at this time is not because Crosby is 37, but the direct result of those big plays that didn’t pan out. So, his efforts quickly shifted from trying to win to a managed decline, although he never admitted to the latter.

However, Dubas has a lot to prove. The “mode of being impatient” that Fenway Sports Group principal Tom Werner termed the ownership’s expectations means that Dubas must turn the team around quickly.

However, after McGroarty and Koivunen, there isn’t yet much on the way. Owen Pickering will be a nice defenseman next season. Tristan Broz may break through next season or by mid-season, but otherwise, acquisitions of Tommy Novak, Timmins, Dewar, and a cavalcade of draft picks are what the Penguins have to show for their efforts.

The draft picks Dubas stockpiled are second and third-round picks, which generally carry about a 9% chance of finding an impact player. That number shrinks dramatically if you’re looking for a top-six center or top-four defenseman.

Dubas missed his first chance to support one last run for Crosby. If there’s any hope to give Crosby another chance at the playoffs before he hangs up his skates and the hockey world is infinitely poorer for it, Dubas must come through this offseason.

He doesn’t have time to punt or wait. He must aggressively work to turn the corner now if Crosby is to take part. Crosby signed a two-year extension that kicks in for next season, but after that, there is no guarantee to see No. 87 on the ice.

This will be summer No. 3 for Dubas, and if the conversation hasn’t turned by next summer, he, too, will be working against time, just like Crosby.

The offseason begins tomorrow. Start the clock.