Kingerski: Dubas Mistake, Lesson Learned Crushed Penguins Season
The Pittsburgh Penguins are technically still in the race for a spot in the Stanley Cup playoffs. A great run over the last 12 games could put the Penguins within shouting distance of the Detroit Red Wings, putting pressure on the young team with many players who have never been in this spot before.
Sure, the Penguins could do that, but realistically, the team obviously never recovered from the heartbreak of losing popular winger Jake Guentzel at the NHL trade deadline. Players thought he would stick around.
President of hockey operations/GM Kyle Dubas wisely traded Guentzel but, in the process, pulled the rug from beneath the players’ feet.
Since those conversations between Dubas and the team started, the team is 2-9-1, including the no-show 6-0 loss to the Washington Capitals on home ice the night Guentzel was traded.
To be clear, Dubas wasn’t wrong in trading Guentzel, but he’ll want to learn a lesson for future reference: He was wrong with the process and timing.
What if Dubas had put Guentzel on the market last summer during his pursuit of Erik Karlsson? It seems he knew the score then, and a bitter pill is often best swallowed when wrapped in a piece of cheese.
Call it the Calgary Principle. The Calgary Flames lost Johnny Gaudreau for nothing, then learned their lesson by trading Matthew Tkachuk during the summer before his lame-duck year.
Or, what if Dubas traded Guentzel over the two weeks of the bye and All-Star Game?
The Penguins likely could have gotten the same return for Guentzel then. Had Dubas done so at either juncture, it would have given everyone the space to process, vent, and rage, then come back to earth with the season still in front of them. Dubas also would have given himself time to figure out what the team needed to make the playoffs, thereby putting himself in a better buyer’s position to add salve to the wound.
Three or four more wins, and this would be a dramatically different season.
Instead, the problem festered until it may have been the infection that killed the patient.
Dubas’s First Answer Was Correct
Dubas set a few soft deadlines, only to erase them in deference to the team. The first fork in the road was supposed to be the trip to Florida in early December. Dubas walked back those comments made on his team radio show.
Then, he expected to know his direction by the bye week and All-Star break. He deferred using either exit ramp, trying to give the team time to find itself.
He was right the first time. And the second time.
The Penguins GM admitted again this week — though tacitly, not specifically — that players, including Sidney Crosby, were angry about the Guentzel situation. He admitted as much in his post-trade deadline press conference in the same indirect way.
Crosby was, or is, angry that Dubas shipped away the best linemate he’s ever had, thereby gutting the Penguins’ best chance at a playoff spot. Crosby is not wrong. However, neither was Dubas for deciding to add future assets, using Guentzel to acquire a trio of prospects and Michael Bunting for a team going nowhere.
Penguins Process Left No Alternatives
Make no mistake, the Penguins’ roster has significant problems. Their inability to put together a meaningful stretch of well-played games at any point this season should wave like a Camping World-sized red flag. When pushed, the Penguins have crumbled. Dallas humbled them Friday, and it sure seemed in the locker room at the American Airlines Center that even the Penguins know their larger fate.
There has been an immediate and noticeable problem with the team since the early season. Remember the ugly losses in November and December? Remember more in January and February?
The Penguins were never close in the standings. They hovered just outside contention. Good and bad. Bad and good. They were fighting, often against themselves and through the malaise of doubt.
But it wasn’t until the trade deadline approached, when the uncertainty of Guentzel’s future took center stage, that the Penguins absolutely collapsed.
The Penguins had needs that were never addressed. If the players felt hung out to dry, it would be understandable.
Had Dubas followed through with his original intentions — making the same trade, but much earlier — Bunting would have had more time to adjust. Perhaps acquired prospect Vasily Ponomarev would have adjusted to the system and provided a little spark of youth and enthusiasm to the NHL roster.
Dubas would have had time to make more adjustments and trades.
Underscoring the mistake, Dubas said the Penguins and Guentzel’s camp talked last summer but not since. Both he and Guentzel admitted they had no communication until the trade was at hand. In other words, the decision was made last summer. The Penguins needed something, or someone, to help for a playoff push, but by waiting, Dubas strapped himself into inaction before ripping their heart out instead.
Dubas made the same mistake prior GMs made by letting his emotions or loyalty to the Penguins’ core of Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang affect his judgment. Had he moved on his preferred timeline, he would’ve had more time to help the team instead of crushing it at the end.
Three or four more wins. Several lessons learned.
Categorized:Opinion Penguins Penguins Analysis
Good reflections, Dan. in the past I have repeatedly recognized the humanness of players and the impact of the relationships in the locker room. But, in the end, they are professionals who are being paid millions of dollars to win hockey games. I agree with you that KD should’ve pulled the trigger at his first deadline instead of bowing to the players for whatever reason. I also agree with you that they were never in it from early in the season. There is a mindset or psychological problem, if you will, with the teams current make up. Only significant change… Read more »
I have mentioned this before, but I don’t think Dubas is a significant improvement on hextall. I know that is blasphemous.. But as a pens fan in Toronto, I’ve seen first hand his approach to team building in Toronto. The key players on Toronto were not his gets or finds, he hands out too large of contracts always favouring the players (still evident here in Pitt,,,2 years for a player who has not succeeded anywhere, more money for graves than any other team was potentially considering and Jarry as well, with all the term).. He didn’t draft the key players… Read more »
This is so spot on , didn’t understand why he didn’t make trades earlier to help them , they for sure felt let down when no help came . Same mistakes last few years as Crosby see’s his last best chances wasted
Didn’t need to trade him. Could have signed him. Can’t believe otherwise. I’d be as pissed as Sid is pissed.
What? You’re saying that Bunting Smith, Nieto, Acciari, Bemstrom, Puljujarvi and all the other merry Pens are worth less than Guentzel? You’re saying that we coild have signed him if not for all the accumulated trash that no one will ever take off our hands and which is exclusively Dubas’ responsibility? Aren’t you happy that Graves is signed through 2029? But hey, it’s not that he made all those catastrophic decisions, just that he was handcuffed by the previous regime. That handcuffing was solved in the Karlsson trade, but what followed handcuffed everything and everybody for years to come. There… Read more »
Perhaps you missed the part where Guentzel was not interested and was not communicating
As a Pens fan in Toronto….I was not happy about the Dubas hiring. In toronto he was known for giving out more money and term on contracts then what was expected or anticipated as what should be given. He also didn’t draft most of the key players in Toronto. He had some good drafts, but most of the draft picks didn’t pan out. And lastly, with the exception of the Ryan O’Reilly trade, the trades he made never panned out, or provided the return that was expected. Doesn’t mean he is all bad, but by the end of his term… Read more »
The biggest error of Dubas was not having a complete new coaching staff by January 1st.
See that’s the current problem with this roster and their fan base, they live for the nostalgia and legacies as opposed to common sense and the long term health of the franchise. They missed the post season with Jake last year and we’re gonna miss them again with him this season. The timing of the Jake trade is irrelevant. Dubas kept stalling to give 87, 71, 58, 65 and the other underachievers time to make a push. Oh and please tell me who or what Dubas could have acquired to help this roster months ago? Who or what was he… Read more »
Everything keeps changing except the coaching/style of play with the same results. In October, it could be seen ( by some of us) that it looked like the same team as last year. If there are no changes to the coaching staff, I expect next season to be more of the same.
What crushed this season was what ended last season, uncompetitive performance on the ice.
Must get younger overall and also get bigger / tougher on the blue line. Good teams camp out in front of the blue paint and make it difficult for their opponents to do the same. Speed is great but is more of a necessity than a competitive advantage in today’s game. Watching POJ or Petey try to move Tkachuk or Kreider would be comical if it wasn’t so sad. EK65 doesn’t try (which is fine because that’s not his game) but Graves is an enigma. Maybe Ludvig, Shea, or St Ivany can do it and maybe not, but at least… Read more »
The problem for the Pens and their management started a few years back with the Jeff Carter contract. Maybe you give a contract like that to a generational player who has been with your team since day 1. We have only ever had 2 of them, Mario and Sid. Then we gave those stupid long-term 35+ contracts to Geno and Letang and created this concept of a core like they deserved treatment if they were generational players. They’re not! Offer them 1 or 2 year contracts until you shouldn’t. Unfortunately, we are at you shouldn’t for at least 1 of… Read more »
Dubas is a joke. He needs fired. He is trash.
Can’t handle the truth about Dubas.
All you who put negative doesn’t know crap about hockey.
I think you are completely right. ☺️
Dan, sorry to say one of the most off the mark columns this year. U are projecting insights into Jake’s contract negotiations that you can’t know. Poor Sid really? Sid knows there are no prospects in the system to help, Sid know the players own a horrible Power Play, Sid knows most of the Core have slowed and are mistake prone. Sid knows trading for help had to include Jarry, Sid knows Dubas was handcuffed by prior GM, Sid knows you can’t keep giving away #1’s you don’t have. Well done Dubas – keeping Jake and making the playoffs should… Read more »
Yep
I’ve been disappointed by how many people thought the column was against trading Guentzel. That’s not the case. However, the point was against the timing. As written, by waiting, Dubas trapped himself in sellers mode, never helping the team. Had he stuck to earlier deadlines, many things could have been different.
Good overall analysis but this whole decline started a few years ago. The Core wanting to stay is a huge part of this mess.
Hindsight, but to me its on the players and coaches, not Dubas. He gave them all every opportunity to string together some wins and contend. It was a nice show of faith, in my opinion. The players can be upset all they want, but its a business and they are professionals and should act as such.
If Crosby is this bitter over trading Guentzel I have to say I’m not impressed. Dubai waited ’til the end and now feelings are hurt? The core has too much power, and Dubas has few options thanks to his predecessors, we are now paying the price for the can being kicked down the road for years. If the attitude changes I will feel better but right now I have a hard time watching or respecting this. Alot of people pay alot of money and we get the NHL version of quiet quitting?
Dealing 59 before the season was the right move. Dubas had made up his mind that 59 was going and lost a considerable amount of leverage in the market by waiting until deadline day.
Get rid of the second best player was bullshit . Dubas is a pathetic GM. If you think he’s good. You don’t know hockey.
Unfortunately, the team cannot get younger by keeping all old players. Guentzel was the only tradeable asset.
It’s was a crappy move by crappy GM . That is nothing but trash. He didn’t do anything in Toronto but made crappy decisions and they are paying for it. Doing the same thing here. Fire him now.
So, it is your perspective that they could/should have signed Guentel to a big contract into his mid 30’s when the team is starting a rebuild?
No, I said build around him. Clueless that doesn’t know crap..
For all any of us know, Jake didn’t want to come back. He seems to be having a great time on a good team right now.
Tom, if you come to the PHN comments section and attack others again as you did Saturday, you’ll be banned.
Crap, crap, crap and more crap. Tom do you need your diaper changed?
🤣
Boy Wonder believes his own press clippings. The positive ones. Toronto fans have seen this half-baked performance all too often. You have our sympathies.
It’s pretty simple. Keep Sully, keep losing. 6 years of losing!
Never seen so many clueless people commenting on this site. Most have no clue . Dubas stinks, fire him now.
You must have a bunch of mirrors around you.
No , I know hockey better than you will ever know it. You’re are just blind
Just saying that no one else knows “crap” does not make you know more.
Mr Shoemaker, don’t feed the troll . . .
I don’t talk to dumbasses like you. That doesn’t know shit about hockey .See you idiot !
Sorry, something about him had me tiggered.I did try to steer the conversation in order to learn some of his vast knowledge. I failed. I’m done now
Almost gives one some empathy for Geno’s dumb retaliation penalties, eh? 😂
It is a real thing.
You are indeed top shelf sir 👍
Dude you don’t have a Legg to stand on. LMAO
You are really bad at this.
At no point this season did this team prove it was worth anything more than freebies. Trading Jake earlier probably would have meant a deal with Vancouver. Then we would have ended up with Kuezmenko who cost a million more and I’d certainly prefer Bunting. Good move!
There are no specific tactics that can unwrite the past 3 years of mismanagement. The Penguins are one of the worst teams in the league. They’re not a borderline playoff team. They’re a lottery team.
Great analysis, always the creativity of your writing. So much better than most sports journalism. You make a bad frustrating season entertaining.
Dan
I respectfully disagree with your assessment of the Guentzel trade. The players shouldn’t be mad at Dubas but at themselves – he gave them every opportunity
to right the ship which never happened and seemed hopeless. If their was any
mistake made by the organization / Hextall & Company it was allowing peer
pressure to send them down the sentimental path and sign Malkin and Letang.
It’s a GM’s job to make the hard decisions, Hextall couldn’t but Dubas had the
courage and backbone to do what was best for the team and organization going
forward.
As the story pointed out twice, Dubas was wise to trade Guentzel. Whether or not he should have isn’t the point of the story.
Dan does Sully’s contract count against the teams cap? I know it’s a big contract but if he doesn’t go the team will not be competitive until he does go. I believe some of the secure contract players have been purposely playing half heatedly since the Jake controversy. Even Sid lost his edge for a few games. My point is I agree Jake had to go but the timing was deadly. The only way that timing works is if Sully goes the same time Jake gets traded. But now just play out the season but Sully can not be the… Read more »
Dan – I understand, the point I was trying to make was hanging onto a player
to long (Malkin & Letang) and being stuck with them, their age and there salary.
I think in the Sports business you have to know when it’s time to move one of
your core players to maximize the return value.
Great job on the article.
How do you define insanity? There is the Penquins future!
It’s a business and everyone knew Guentzel was to be traded unless, maybe the Pens were a lock to make the playoffs. Even then, given recent playoff history I would have still traded Guentzel to get something in return.
whether or not to trade Guentzel wasn’t the point of the column. It was about timing and the reasoning for the timing.
Dubas is a terrible GM. We learned that in Toronto and most Leaf fans were thrilled to see him go, especially to world class organization like the Pittsburgh Penguins, a division rival.