Kingerski: Dubas Delivering on Promises, but Flirting with Trouble
Pittsburgh Penguins president of hockey operations Kyle Dubas has delivered on each of his early statements. He expected to acquire players who were cap casualties via trade instead of chasing free-agent splashes. Enter Reilly Smith via trade and a handful of modest free agent signings, none more expensive than 27-year-old Ryan Graves at $4.5 million.
Check and check.
Dubas also said he would evaluate goalie Tristan Jarry based on market forces and wanted a competitive training camp. Again, check and check. As we learn more about the asking price for the few goalies on the NHL trade block, they seem unaffordable to all but the most desperate seekers or buyers with rich surpluses of cash and prospects.
And Dubas has fortified his organizational depth very quickly. Vinnie Hinostroza and Andreas Johnsson were the Friday additions who could easily fill a bottom-six role or play in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. Ryan Shea and Radim Zohorna will also significantly upgrade a beleaguered WBS Penguins team that was malnourished under the previous regime.
Zohorna could be their No. 1 center, providing much-needed playmaking from the pivot position that they sorely lacked last season, leaving wingers like Valtteri Puustinen and Alex Nylander to fend for themselves in the offensive zone.
The other added benefit of increased depth is increased competition for jobs. Even those players who make the NHL roster in October can’t feel too comfortable knowing the depth behind them. Sometimes being uncomfortable is a pretty good motivator.
Ryan Graves was the best possible Brian Dumoulin replacement on the market. Reilly Smith will add some offensive pop and defensive responsibility to the top six and penalty kill. Additional free agent signings Noel Acciari and Matt Nieto also present significant upgrades and speed.
Even Jarry’s contract was a gamble born of circumstance that has better odds of succeeding than failing (and for everyone who criticizes the term, remember that negotiations are two-sided affairs, and the Penguins had few other options).
Those are the things Dubas has done well.
However, Dubas is also flirting with a massive upheaval. Yes, that means Erik Karlsson.
On the surface, an upheaval sounds great for a team that missed the playoffs for the first time in 17 years and failed to rise to the occasion when a playoff spot rested within easy grasp.
That kind of team should be ripped apart and put back together differently.
And yes, adding a great player is rarely a bad thing.
But Karlsson represents every bit as much, if not more, risk as Jarry’s five-year deal. Karlsson crested the 100-point mark for a terrible San Jose Sharks team last season. He won the Norris Trophy. He was also a minus-26, despite 74 even-strength points.
How can any player score so many points and be so deep in the red? Karlsson had a negative 17 differential with empty netters, which means he was also on the ice for 83 even-strength or shorthanded goals against.
Before last season, Karlsson’s previous point totals were 35, 22, 40, and 45, respectively. He played as many as 56 games only once in those four seasons.
Erik Karlsson was tasked with being the pillar of the Sharks, who built from the backend, including fellow Norris winner Brent Burns.
Instead, San Jose missed the playoffs in each of Karlsson’s first four seasons there.
Further, Burns’s production fell by about 25% in his four seasons with Karlsson. Burns fell from 277 points in the four seasons preceding Karlsson’s arrival to 208 in the four afterward, not scoring more than 54 points in the final three seasons.
Former Sharks GM Doug Wilson bet big on the two defensemen and lost. San Jose didn’t take a step forward but quickly and painfully regressed to four straight playoff misses.
Burns rebounded to score 61 points this season with the Carolina Hurricanes.
Don’t misunderstand, the above is not to bash Karlsson. He is an electric and dynamic player when healthy. It’s to point out that adding Karlsson to a blue line with Kris Letang will not be a doubling of offense but rather a lesser factor from each player because, for all of their talent, there remains just one puck, one top power play, and one No. 1 role.
But a coach must keep both happy. Sure, it could work if coach Mike Sullivan stripped away the top role from Letang and clearly defined him as a No. 2 with more penalty killing, less ice time, less offensive zone time, more defensive zone time, and less power-play time.
Sure, that would go over well.
And the Pittsburgh Penguins would need to pay handsomely for that privilege of getting less from both Karlsson and Letang.
As the Penguins sit on July 8, they appear to be a playoff team again. They have no glaring needs, both a starting goalie and goaltending depth should the starter falter, speed in their bottom six, a bit more physicality, a few actual prospects in the pipeline, and a fresh outlook with a significant number of new faces.
And Sidney Crosby.
It would be heresy for a Penguins GM to shop for a first or second-line center. This isn’t much different.
And we haven’t yet delved into Karlsson’s age. He’s already 33 with four more years on his contract. Regardless of how much salary San Jose eats and how much the rumored third team would pick up, Karlsson would be married to the Penguins, for better and worse.
And there is a significant risk that it could be for worse.
Dubas has done well to nibble around the edges and change the secondary pieces. While Karlsson confirmed his immense talent last season, his campaign stands in direct contrast to his three and five-year trends of soft production and significant injuries.
There seem to be plenty of other avenues to remake the team and players who could significantly contribute. The view here is that Dubas should continue with the astute smaller moves with less risk but high reward.
…At least until Mitch Marner hits the trade or free-agent market.
Categorized:Penguins
Even the Athletic is high on a Karlsson trade, but it doesn’t seem worth the risk and cost. If Jarry can’t stay healthy, the last thing you want is a leaky defenseman.
Josh Yohe knows more about hockey than any media in the Burgh, not that we’re blessed with a bunch of geniuses here or anything.
Letang is three years older, has a contract through 2028, and has known health problems. He had a good season, but missed 18 games. I don’t think it’s a bad idea to bring EK in, especially if it’s to replace Petry (I think he wants to end his career in DET anyway). Now for the small matter of making it all happen…
Dan agree 100% with your analysis. Karlsson is a defenseman in name only. He is a total liability & not a playoff type player. Dubais has done a remarkable job however signing Karlsson would be a disaster & seal the franchise fate for years to come.
He’s had one productive season in the past 6. The worst plus minus of any 100 point scorer in NHL history. Needs a GPS to find his own zone. He’s an awful defenseman. It’s funny that people who hate Letang are pushing for EK. He’s 3 times as bad in his own zone. Totally agree with you.
Thanks for pointing out that Letang haters want Karlsson. I am not sure how to understand that, it’s kind of a mind bender.
You got it wrong, brah. Letang lickers don’t want Karlsson, a first-ballot HOFer who is the more talented/accomplished of the two players.
Letang has a 3-0 advantage in the most important category. I am not anti-Karlsson, just don’t think that he is what this penguins team needs to get over the hump. It would be entertaining though and isn’t that what sports is all about?
Bang on Dan! If the Pens want to upgrade their blue line, I think they could get better return on assets, with MUCH less downside, by beefing up with a LH Dman on the 2nd and/or 3rd pair. Petey & POJ are too light to protect the net front. Plus, a good LH stay-at-home Dman should also be about 1/3 the cost of Erik the Great.
RJ, you and Mr Heyl are spot on. This defensive unit was really bad last yr. They need just a couple big stay at home Dmen. They need some youth, size and character. We have to get rid of Granlund, Carter, Petry. Really worried about Goaltending too.
I doubt anyone will take our old players in exchange for young ones. I cannot stress this enough. Not sure how anyone thinks this will happen. 🤷♂️
NO EK PLEASE.TRADE Petrey and Rutta and get a couple younger DMEN!
Why would anyone trade their good, young defenseman for older, more high priced players?
Ask hextall. Trading Matheson and Marino. For petry and signing rutta.
Marino was traded for Smith, who is younger, Matheson was garbage defensively and also overpaid. I get your point though. Maybe there is another dumb GM out there that Dubas can fleece. Or maybe a trade can happen like the Scuderi for Daley trade. Lateral move age wise but an upgrade in overall play.
How can any player score so many points and be so deep in the red?
Answer: He plays in a new system under a new coach along with goaltenders who combine for the worst save percentage (.881) in the league as well as passive/inexperienced skaters who largely consider defense to be optional. (BTW, Letang was -13 with noticeably better and more experienced talent around him last season.)
I feel like the debate will go on until something happens or it doesnt. I am not concerned about who should play point on the powerplay because EK is clearly and decisively better at this than KL. There are enough minutes for them to split. My concern is what they would give up if it does happen. Will it be worth giving up everything for another older player with another hard contract to move? Time will tell. I will be fine with whatever happens because complaining changes nothing. I am just happy that the team has a gm that tries… Read more »
Let’s be honest, our Cup window is pretty much sealed if we stay put, we need a game changer to add to Crosby-Malkin-Letang, I hoped that would had come in the net, but it seems that Jarry was the only option available, so we have to live with that.
Karlsson would be the game changer that maybe could elevate our team for one last push before oblivion. Or at least he would be fun to watch.
If Duby whiffs on EK65, he should come clean with the fan base, announce the team is in a full rebuild and trade Crosby to begin the process. Because this team as is doesn’t have a chance in hell to compete for even a division title let alone a Stanley Cup in what looks to be its final chance to be relevant again.
Thats dramatic. I think EK is fun to watch but i am not sure how he would help improve team defense enough to make this team a contender again. He would bring some excitement to the games. His forte is offense and the penguins need improved defense to be relevant so…
One more time: EK65 allows this team to play faster at a more up-tempo pace, which is what the head coach (and vast majority of fans) prefer. He allows it to play more with the puck, which in turn improves the defense because the other team cannot score without it (duh). As its QB, he significantly upgrades the PP in the role of quarterback. If you watched any games the last few years, you know this has been one of the major reasons that the unit has underachieved in recent years. He also safeguards against an extended Letang absence, which… Read more »
Good points. I think i will probably remain neutral in the karlsson vs no karlsson debate. Very good arguements both for and against this move. In the end, i always support whoever is on the team like it or not, its who we get.
OMG even a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while. As I wrote adding Karlsson, which seems unlikely, would be building the most expensive House of Straw the Big Bad Wolf could blow down with even less effort than last season. The real GM would love the added empty calories ,& even considering this move further shows Sullivans Svengali trance on FSG-Dubas . Even Kingerski seemingly is exiting the ether.Here’s a novel idea. Think about building a House of Bricks?
The penguins over the last few years haven’t been flirting with trouble they’ve been going steady 😎
That’s a pretty a good line!
Having Karlsson and Letang on the same team? You could sign Jesus to play goal and it really wouldn’t matter. 😂
Dubas checked in with his agent and they wanted more money. Jarry was the only goalie willing to play behind the penguins defense and less money than Jesus. (Looks for lightning strikes…)
Come on now. Jesus saves! 🙂
At PNC bank!
I appreciate hearing a no-Karlsson perspective. Thanks.
EK helps maximize the the regular season point total and seeding in the playoffs.
Then when playoffs begin and the physicality ratchets skyward, EK ensures an early exit. We see it year after year, the teams that grind you to a pulp and put their bodies on the line in unimaginable ways are the teams that do best. That description doesn’t fit EK. Hard pass. Let him screw up the Canes.
Trade Rust and Petry for draft picks. Bring in Tarasenko and Dumba and Buy out Grandlund.
Bring in Tarasenko before Carolina scoops him up.Forget about Karlsson.Dumba also if possible.
Many great points Dan, and I’m not sure EK is the best option. However, I don’t buy your argument about the problems you assume come with two top D. Just because it didn’t work in SJ, doesn’t mean it can’t. This is like saying you can’t have two top Centre’s. Sid and Geno have found a way to set ego’s aside over the years. If you were Letang you would be downright angry and jealous they brought in Karlsson? Your ego would be too big? Or EK’s is? These guys aren’t teenagers. Why assume D men are any different? Both… Read more »