NFL MNF Bets: Play Rodgers & His Rowdy Friends

The NFL Week 1 finale is a doozy as Aaron Rodgers makes his second New York Jets debut versus the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.

Are you ready? For some football? Can I invite you to a Monday night party? 

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I’m coming in hot with an 8-3 Week 1 handicapping record, so let’s keep it going. Here are my best bets for the spread and total for Monday Night. 

New York Jets +4.5 (FanDuel)

It’s the Aaron Rodgers show. The Jets have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, but they need a healthy and efficient Rodgers to make it all work. 

Rodgers will turn 41 during the season and hasn’t played a competitive game in over a year and a half, but he has weapons. 

RB Breece Hall is a dual-threat back who racked up a healthy 639 YAC and rushed for 994 yards in 2023. The Jets also have RB Izzy Abanikanda on their depth chart. Look for the Jets and Rodgers to utilize his 4.34 speed out of the backfield. 

But it’s the Jets defense that is the true star. They have talent all over the field, with CB Sauce Gardner locking down the secondary and Haasan Reddick getting in the grill of opposing QBs.

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And the Jets will be in Brock Purdy’s face all night long.

The 49ers, last year’s Super Bowl runner-up, have the talent. But they come into 2024 with an average to below-average offensive line outside of Trent Williams. And Willaims held out during training camp, so he’ll have some rust to shake off. 

Though Purdy only took 28 sacks in 2023, he’ll get challenged by the Jets defense in Week 1. 

The 49ers are also slow-starters. They’ve gone 2-5 against the spread in the opening week during Kyle Shanahan’s tenure. With Williams and WR Brandon Aiyuk missing time during training camp, I expect this San Francisco team to stumble tonight. 

Game Total Over 43 (DraftKings)

Unders are a solid bet during the opening weeks of the NFL season. Teams loathe playing their stars during training camp, so the offenses lag behind the defenses. 

Week 1 hasn’t been an under-fest, however. Only seven of 15 games went under the total thus far. 

What changed? 

Bookmakers adjusted their lines, knowing that unders hit 61.5% through the first nine weeks of the 2023 season. So blindly betting under the total in 2024 probably won’t be as profitable.

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I also like the over tonight because of Aaron Rodgers’ ego. He’s not coming back to hand the ball off. He wants to put up numbers on a national stage. 

Rodgers and the Jets will test the Niners early, trying to neutralize the Niners’ running attack led by Christian McCaffrey. If New York is successful, this game will go over 43.