Penguins Big Week Ahead; Why Trading Up Quickly Makes Sense

There are now multiple mock drafts that have prodigious talent dropping toward the back half of the top 10 in Friday’s first round of the NHL Draft. And with the fallible but insightful projections could come opportunity for the Pittsburgh Penguins to leap forward not only in the first round, but take a bigger step than expected in their rebuilding effort.

General manager Kyle Dubas very well might have a big opportunity in front of him.

The Penguins will learn by Wednesday if the New York Rangers will surrender their 2025 or 2026 first-round pick. Should the Rangers bet on themselves, the Penguins will get the 2026 pick. However, if Rangers GM Chris Drury has a little hesitation because of the sweeping changes he would like to make, both to clean a bad mixture on the ice and to make new coach Mike Sullivan happy, then he could forfeit the ’25 pick, which is 12th overall.

The Rangers haven’t decided yet, so any “rumors” as to the decision would be premature, at best.

We’ve already run the numbers on trading up, if the Penguins do get the Rangers’ pick: Trading Up? The Cost of a Penguins Draft Day Trade

Independent of getting the 12th overall pick, we know that Dubas is aware of the mock drafts. He knows who writes them and knows their work. So, when he sees Craig Button of TSN drop James Hagens to eighth overall, he might start to worry. When Corey Pronman both dropped Hagens to eighth and Porter Martone to ninth, perhaps it will add a little more desire for Dubas to move up in the 2025 NHL Draft.

It would be ideal for the Penguins to get one of the centers on Friday. They largely comprise the best group of players, and the Penguins organization has only one center prospect, Tristan Broz. With just one toy remaining on the shelf, we strongly opined that Dubas would do well to get one of Jake O’Brien, Brady Martin, or Roger McQueen.

However, if Hagens and Martone do indeed drop, that almost necessarily means that those three will be gone by No. 11. After the centers, there will be a run on defensemen, including prospects such as Radim Mrtka, Jackson Smith, and Kashawn Aitcheson. Unfortunately, defensemen are much harder to develop and take much longer to reach their potential.

We might not see one of those defenders in the NHL until 2028 or 2029. After all, Mrtka is just 17 years old and has two years of high school remaining.

As a side note, defenseman Jackson Smith chose to attend Penn State, which makes him eligible to begin his pro career after just one season in the NCAA. Compared to Harrison Brunicke, who must play a second season in the WHL if he doesn’t make the NHL roster, Smith could leap to the AHL after one year to continue his hockey matriculation, regardless of birthday or CHL transfer rules.

(Until the CHL relents and creates more equitable or common-sense transfer rules, expect to see more players jump from junior hockey to college.)

Not only would a forward be more readily available, but perhaps immediately ready for NHL duty.

Or, Dubas could cross off two issues with one move and trade up in the draft.

As the Penguins currently sit, you may be shocked to know that they aren’t a bad team. If the team doesn’t crumble as it did at the beginning and in the middle of last season, they’re good enough to be on the cusp of a playoff position.

After all, the Penguins’ top six forwards are still Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, Rutger McGroarty, and Ville Koivunen. It’s a spiffy top of the lineup that is competitive. If new coaches are able to get more out of the defensive corps, including struggle bus passengers Erik Karlsson and Ryan Graves, the Penguins could be firmly in the middle of the pack.

But middle is no good when you’re on your way down. And so a trade upward to Nos. 7, 8, or 9, using one of the Penguins veterans–IF, if, if … IF possible, would seem to make great sense. By getting slightly worse now, it could mean another high pick in 2026 but more young talent for 2027 and beyond.

Would Rakell and the 11th pick be a good foundation for a deal with Boston or Buffalo, which selects ninth? Could Erik Karlsson and No. 11 tempt Seattle with the eighth overall pick?

The line for a blue chip prospect may have moved back to No. 9, which gives Dubas even more opportunity.

Hagens was the consensus first overall pick last summer, but was eclipsed by other prospects over the course of this season. Hagens did not have a down year, but his smaller stature and the emergence of others shuffled him back a few spots.

Martone was the only draft prospect on Team Canada at the World Championships. Dubas was Team Canada’s GM and obviously took a shine to the power forward.

Dubas would need to make any trades north in the draft before the drama begins on Friday. If Hagens or Martone drop, those picks in the seven to nine range will carry a premium far more costly than buying groceries at a convenience store, likely punting the Penguins’ chances. But if the opportunity does indeed present itself to trade away a veteran for a higher pick, the Penguins would get better by getting worse.

It could be a big week for the Penguins’ future.