Penguins Blog: What to Do With Young Goalies & Forwards?
August is generally the tipping point for the NHL off-season. General managers and personnel who get precious little time with their families during the season set aside time now to be human rather than chasing a Stanley Cup. However, it was also Aug. 6, 2023, when the Penguins traded for Erik Karlsson.
So, the offseason is not necessarily over, but as Elliotte Friedman noted on his mid-summer 32 Thoughts last weekend, nothing is imminent with the Penguins trade talks.
That’s both expected and odd, but the Penguins’ transactions have begun to feel like my grandmother’s basement in North Huntington. My grandparents, who passed more than 20 years ago, lived in one of those small two-bedroom postwar housing plans that show up in movies and retro TV shows. And lining the shelves in the dusty and musty basement were cans of food. Cans and cans and cans of food. If the world had indeed gone to hell on Dec. 31, 1999, I was hiding out in that basement.
Wedged around the food that had probably expired before my birth were trinkets, knick-knacks, and uncollectibles from every yard sale from here to Erie.
And so, too, do the Penguins have lots of cans, and some that have passed their expiration date. Using rough numbers, the Penguins have 20 forwards who have played or could play in the NHL this season, and the defense group is 12 deep with three goalies … and Sergei Murashov on the way.
So, when we asked Penguins fans and PHN readers what they wanted to discuss this week, it all led back to variations of the roster gluts.
Yes, there are far too many bodies for far too few spaces. Whether Penguins’ general manager Kyle Dubas got caught between strategies of trading away veterans but found no suitors, or whether that simply isn’t a concern because Dubas will waive a large number of them, is an answer in waiting.
Last season’s training camp and preseason were the most competitive in years, but next month could be chaos personified as new coach Dan Muse attempts to get a hold of his team with new ideas and systems, while also evaluating a dozen roster battles.
We received a lot of questions about what the Penguins will do with this veteran, that defenseman, or the goalies, and the blunt truth is: we really don’t know. We can project that Arturs Silovs will be the backup goalie and that the coaches will give Harrison Brunicke every opportunity to make the team. Still, their success is far less of a certainty than grandma having lunch ready at noon.
Projections
We’ve done a few projections over the last month, but for the summer crowd to catch up, the goalie tandem is most likely Tristan Jarry and Arturs Silovs, who was acquired from the Vancouver Canucks for a fourth-round pick.
Dubas told the PDOcast podcast that the team had the necessary runway for Silovs, who was roughed up in 10 NHL games last season, but led his AHL Abbotsford Canucks to the Calder Cup championship with stellar netminding.
We think Brunicke will make the NHL squad, at least for a few months. If things go well, he stays, but if things are sketchy, he can be loaned to Team Canada for the World Junior Championships, then returned to the WHL for a few months. If he plays nine NHL games or fewer, he will not burn a year of his entry-level contract.
(But even if he does burn a year of his ELC, given the soaring values of second contracts in the NHL, there could be advantages to his contract expiring before he hits his full stride.)
The right-side battle between Connor Clifton, Matt Dumba, and Jack St. Ivany will be close, and player performance will determine the results, and the conclusion of the Erik Karlsson situation will determine if Dubas keeps one or two of them on the NHL roster.
However, while we can dabble with a good idea on the back end, it’s not really possible to project the forwards. If the Penguins are a youth movement, there will be some very financial ramifications to keeping players such as Tristan Broz or Filip Hallander over established veterans such as Danton Heinen, Kevin Hayes, or even Philip Tomasino.
As noted, Puckpedia.com currently lists the Penguins with 13 forwards on the NHL roster, but not among those 13 are Rutger McGroarty, Ville Koivunen, Broz, Hallander, Joona Koppanen, and Rafael Harvey-Pinard.
In a true youth movement, all but Koppanen would be assured an NHL sweater, with Avery Hayes chasing the dream and Sam Poulin getting a final shot at establishing himself in the big show.
It does beg the question if Dubas was left hanging on the trade market. If nothing changes between now and mid-September, we are also quite curious about what happens next.
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Dan, this weekend I looked up the Karlsson trade date. I was thinking it was mid-August and was surprised that it was 8/6.
With the new coaching staff, do you know if most of them are in Pittsburgh preparing for all the preseason activity?
You would think that most teams would like to finalize their rosters around mid-August. Plus, you would think they would give players a chance to move.
Maybe we’ll see some trades by the end of this week or early next week.
Your keyboard to God’s ears. It is getting depressing checking PHN each morning, lunch and evening to see if we are finally over the EK65 experience…
I’m completely over this offseason and the tired narratives surrounding it. The reality is hard to ignore, aging roster with a shallow NHL ready prospect pool. Better than last year, sure I can go along with that. So are other teams in the conference.Allot of those old basements had leaks & cracks in the wall, lol.
We shall see if Dubas is true to his word about not being worried about waiving veterans and losing them for nothing when they have to pass through waivers.
It is starting to get concerning how bloated this roster is. I like following starting lineup:
McGroarty Crosby Rakell
Rust Malkin Koivunen
Mantha Novak Tomasino
Brazeau Lizotte Accairi
With Dewar as 13th forward, seems like pretty good group. Hallander, Broz and Koppanen can be in Wilkes ready as call-ups.
But that still leaves Hayes (K), Heinen, Harvey-Pinard, Hayes (A), Imama. And seems nobody is beating down the door to acquire anyone in that group.
At least there can be some reasonable debates with forwards, though. Look at our blue line:
Karlsson, Letang, Pickering, Brunicke, St. Ivany, Dumba, Graves, Shea, Clifton, Alexeyev, Wotherspoon.
Yikes!
If this was last season, you’d be hyped if that was our defense core lol
They should give all the young guys a shot. It’s the only way they’ll know what they have. The problem is, they’re stuck with guys like Hayes, Acciari and Dumba. Sure they brought in extra draft picks but they also block the path of several key prospects. Until that’s resolved, they’ll be stuck in neutral in this rebuild.
I say Karlsson and letang play together. It’ll guarantee old school Penguins hockey, 5-3, 6-5 type games, let Crosby pile up points at tail end of career. And pretty soon one or both of 65 and 58 will be demanding trades and willing to waive no trades, etc. meanwhile uou let Pickering and brunicke play and develop on to next great d pair. And the two best remaining under 30 dmen can play together on 3rd pair. When you finally get rid of 65, plug best left side guy with Letang, plug next guy on 3rd pair.
It’s NOT the only way. That’s what baby Pens are for.
Dubas and co seem to want the kids to learn to win in the minors and bring some good experiences to the NHL. They’re putting a bunch of money into player development- including giving young players competent older players to play with in the AHL. It literally does not matter if the likes of Danton Heinen make the team, get traded or get waived and stashed in Wilkes Barre. It matters if the penguins get a high draft pick. It matters if the WBS Penguins have a strong playoff run. It matters that individual prospects make quick progress. The other… Read more »
Take an ANNOUNCED vacation. It is the only way we all will get out of these summer dolldrums.
You will get your wish this week.
As for the D, I can’t see brunicke making it, only reason he would is because he has to go back to the whl and camt play in the AHL. He won’t develop much in the W. After offloading a couple D at the deadline is when I see pickering make the jump, which I think is fair. Feel like on the goalie side of things they are focusing on silovs, this year. If he stumbles blomqvist gets a shot. But it’ll likely be a 50/50 split with whoever. Jarry has to get games and hopefully plays well enough to… Read more »