Penguins Future Finally Here; Predicting Veteran Moves

It seems a lifetime ago that the Pittsburgh Penguins wrapped their regular season and dispersed to vacation spots, golf courses, and homes across the globe. The uncertainty of the future, as players cleaned out their stalls and said goodbye, has only grown in the two months since.

For the first time since Barack Obama was president, the Penguins have a new coach, but the roster remains largely the same, with only defenseman Matt Grzelcyk not (and unlikely to be) re-signed. For a team in transition, there has yet to be much actual … transition.

After a couple of years of wondering when the figurative other shoe would drop, a third straight playoff miss despite an indomitable season by Sidney Crosby leaves the organization little choice but to move boldly in a new direction. It’s not like keeping the veterans is a winning strategy, and with a new coach hired for his work with young players (and veteran projects), there is no longer a reason to placate any other interests other than building a team capable of competing for a decade rather than a season.

The organizational meetings that commenced last week are over. New coach Dan Muse is seated. President of hockey operations/GM Kyle Dubas should be armed with more than enough information, insights, and second opinions to move decisively forward.

And so, we are finally here. The precipice of the great abyss. Navigate it well and success will follow, eventually. Make too many mistakes and getting lost in the abyss is a real possibility, as the Detroit Red Wings, Buffalo Sabres, and Anaheim Ducks will attest. The Ottawa Senators finally broke their seven-year playoff drought, but what comes next for them is a part of the building process to which Dubas can yet only aspire.

Good luck exploring the infinite abyss.

No, Dubas is still in Phase 1 as some parts of the team must be deconstructed and the stone for the next foundation set in place. There are just 11 days until the 2025 NHL Draft, which could net the Penguins one of those foundational stones, though it is more realistic for them to hope for a high-value complementary piece.

With any luck, Dubas and vice president of player personnel Wes Clark will emerge from the draft with a couple of complementary pieces and a few NHL players. Of course, between now and then, the Penguins may also add a few more picks, too.

Read More: New Teams are Calling; Dubas on Penguins Trade Talks, Free Agency (+)

Dubas told PHN at the NHL Scouting Combine that “the usual suspects” have been the target of trade talks, but new teams had joined the fray. Dubas described those new teams as teams looking to take the next step in their rebuilding processes and hoping to get back to the playoffs.

Actually, it is the Penguins who must take a step backward, lest they be just good enough to get stuck in the middle until age strikes its final blow at the heart of the roster and the rebuilding process starts over again.

Penguins Predictions

The players who could be traded away are numerous. The potential has fooled the internet analysts who claim a fire sale or mass sell-off is on the way. Another such implication was made over the weekend, but as much as those reports seek to be ahead of the news, and there will be trades over the next two weeks, there certainly will not be the sheer volume predicted.

In part, that wholesale turnover isn’t realistic for a pair of reasons. First, other teams must want what Dubas is selling and be willing to provide some desired assets. And two, the Penguins’ rebuilding process has not yet reached a point at which multiple roster spots can be filled by prospects and younger players who have been awaiting their turn.

Erik Karlsson: Traded, but not until closer to the season

Karlsson is no longer a first-choice option. He played himself out of that over the last two years. He must prove the Team Sweden version of himself is the player, not the occasional albatross, whose Penguins contributions were generally offset by his disinterested defense. Karlsson likely voiced his displeasure and desires during a long meeting with Dubas following the season, but Karlsson’s $10 million salary cap hit only serves as another impediment to moving on.

After the offseason tumult has settled and rival GMs see their team and assess their needs, Karlsson could become more attractive, or at least palatable. Another August trade?

Kris Letang: Not going anywhere.

Had Letang not undergone surgery to repair a small hole in his heart in April as a solution to preventing future strokes, his trade potential might be a three in 10 instead of a zero.

With three seasons remaining on his contract, Letang seems unlikely to reach the end as a healthy, contributing, active player. His 35+ designation means the holder of his contract is stuck with his $6.2 million salary cap hit unless doctors pull Letang away from the game and a team can place him on LTIR. The risk is not currently worth the potential reward until Letang proves otherwise.

Rickard Rakell: Luggage packed.

It was somewhat surprising that Rakell remained with the Penguins following the March 7 NHL trade deadline, but Dubas intimated he wasn’t wowed by any of the offers. Following the thread of our conversation with the Penguins GM at the Combine, Rakell might not command the price we expected, or that Dubas wants, but there is enough value to make the move.

Trading Rakell for less than hoped would be the move that allows the Penguins to take a step backward; future gain at the expense of the present.

Bryan Rust: Sticking around.

No one is untouchable except Crosby, but the Penguins do and should enjoy Rust’s work with the young players. His leadership and mentoring status are significant. Someone has to keep the train on the tracks, and Rust will be one of those conductors.

He loses no trade protection on July 1, and perhaps one of those younger teams comes calling with an offer too good to resist, but barring a “Are you serious” offer, we’re confidently predicting Rust will have his name called by PA announcer Ryan Mill 30 more times next season.

Tristan Jarry: Here, for now.

One of the most common questions submitted to PHN is about the Penguins’ goaltending setup for next season. If we take Dubas at his word, it’s going to be a camp competition, and the winners take all.

We expect Jarry to be one of the winners, but we also expect Sergei Murashov to progress quickly. There is no shortage of teams looking for goalies, but Jarry’s wild ride through the 2024-25 season has negated any trade possibility without the Penguins affixing an asset to make it happen. However, should Jarry start well next season, his solid end to this season could make GMs reconsider.

We don’t think Jarry will finish the 2025-26 season with the Penguins, but he’s safe this summer.

Kevin Hayes: Trade inclusion?

Hayes’s pedestrian performance this season neither cemented his status in the lineup nor deemed him AHL worthy. His salary cap hit is more than $3.5 million, but he would otherwise occupy a roster spot that Dubas could use for a prospect or draft pick ready to make the leap forward.

Perhaps Dubas could move him individually with a significant salary holdback. Still, Hayes is more likely destined to be a cap-hit balance or talent-gap balance for any summer trades because his roster spot would be far from guaranteed after Dubas acquires a few more young players via trades, offer sheets, and the draft.

Evgeni Malkin: Farewell Tour.

It is time for Malkin to speak to us lowly media types and say that it’s his last NHL season. He can backtrack later if he finds a groove on the wing or with some of the young guys, but no player in the game has as many back credits for praise. No one has been snubbed, overlooked, or otherwise more forgotten than Malkin, who has a Hart Trophy, Art Ross, and Conn Smythe among his trophy credits.

It would be nice to see other cities and the national media remember him and deliver the adulation that he’s earned, but is frequently denied.