Penguins Future Finally Here; Predicting Veteran Moves
It seems a lifetime ago that the Pittsburgh Penguins wrapped their regular season and dispersed to vacation spots, golf courses, and homes across the globe. The uncertainty of the future, as players cleaned out their stalls and said goodbye, has only grown in the two months since.
For the first time since Barack Obama was president, the Penguins have a new coach, but the roster remains largely the same, with only defenseman Matt Grzelcyk not (and unlikely to be) re-signed. For a team in transition, there has yet to be much actual … transition.
After a couple of years of wondering when the figurative other shoe would drop, a third straight playoff miss despite an indomitable season by Sidney Crosby leaves the organization little choice but to move boldly in a new direction. It’s not like keeping the veterans is a winning strategy, and with a new coach hired for his work with young players (and veteran projects), there is no longer a reason to placate any other interests other than building a team capable of competing for a decade rather than a season.
The organizational meetings that commenced last week are over. New coach Dan Muse is seated. President of hockey operations/GM Kyle Dubas should be armed with more than enough information, insights, and second opinions to move decisively forward.
And so, we are finally here. The precipice of the great abyss. Navigate it well and success will follow, eventually. Make too many mistakes and getting lost in the abyss is a real possibility, as the Detroit Red Wings, Buffalo Sabres, and Anaheim Ducks will attest. The Ottawa Senators finally broke their seven-year playoff drought, but what comes next for them is a part of the building process to which Dubas can yet only aspire.
Good luck exploring the infinite abyss.
No, Dubas is still in Phase 1 as some parts of the team must be deconstructed and the stone for the next foundation set in place. There are just 11 days until the 2025 NHL Draft, which could net the Penguins one of those foundational stones, though it is more realistic for them to hope for a high-value complementary piece.
With any luck, Dubas and vice president of player personnel Wes Clark will emerge from the draft with a couple of complementary pieces and a few NHL players. Of course, between now and then, the Penguins may also add a few more picks, too.
Read More: New Teams are Calling; Dubas on Penguins Trade Talks, Free Agency (+)
Dubas told PHN at the NHL Scouting Combine that “the usual suspects” have been the target of trade talks, but new teams had joined the fray. Dubas described those new teams as teams looking to take the next step in their rebuilding processes and hoping to get back to the playoffs.
Actually, it is the Penguins who must take a step backward, lest they be just good enough to get stuck in the middle until age strikes its final blow at the heart of the roster and the rebuilding process starts over again.
Penguins Predictions
The players who could be traded away are numerous. The potential has fooled the internet analysts who claim a fire sale or mass sell-off is on the way. Another such implication was made over the weekend, but as much as those reports seek to be ahead of the news, and there will be trades over the next two weeks, there certainly will not be the sheer volume predicted.
In part, that wholesale turnover isn’t realistic for a pair of reasons. First, other teams must want what Dubas is selling and be willing to provide some desired assets. And two, the Penguins’ rebuilding process has not yet reached a point at which multiple roster spots can be filled by prospects and younger players who have been awaiting their turn.
Erik Karlsson: Traded, but not until closer to the season
Karlsson is no longer a first-choice option. He played himself out of that over the last two years. He must prove the Team Sweden version of himself is the player, not the occasional albatross, whose Penguins contributions were generally offset by his disinterested defense. Karlsson likely voiced his displeasure and desires during a long meeting with Dubas following the season, but Karlsson’s $10 million salary cap hit only serves as another impediment to moving on.
After the offseason tumult has settled and rival GMs see their team and assess their needs, Karlsson could become more attractive, or at least palatable. Another August trade?
Kris Letang: Not going anywhere.
Had Letang not undergone surgery to repair a small hole in his heart in April as a solution to preventing future strokes, his trade potential might be a three in 10 instead of a zero.
With three seasons remaining on his contract, Letang seems unlikely to reach the end as a healthy, contributing, active player. His 35+ designation means the holder of his contract is stuck with his $6.2 million salary cap hit unless doctors pull Letang away from the game and a team can place him on LTIR. The risk is not currently worth the potential reward until Letang proves otherwise.
Rickard Rakell: Luggage packed.
It was somewhat surprising that Rakell remained with the Penguins following the March 7 NHL trade deadline, but Dubas intimated he wasn’t wowed by any of the offers. Following the thread of our conversation with the Penguins GM at the Combine, Rakell might not command the price we expected, or that Dubas wants, but there is enough value to make the move.
Trading Rakell for less than hoped would be the move that allows the Penguins to take a step backward; future gain at the expense of the present.
Bryan Rust: Sticking around.
No one is untouchable except Crosby, but the Penguins do and should enjoy Rust’s work with the young players. His leadership and mentoring status are significant. Someone has to keep the train on the tracks, and Rust will be one of those conductors.
He loses no trade protection on July 1, and perhaps one of those younger teams comes calling with an offer too good to resist, but barring a “Are you serious” offer, we’re confidently predicting Rust will have his name called by PA announcer Ryan Mill 30 more times next season.
Tristan Jarry: Here, for now.
One of the most common questions submitted to PHN is about the Penguins’ goaltending setup for next season. If we take Dubas at his word, it’s going to be a camp competition, and the winners take all.
We expect Jarry to be one of the winners, but we also expect Sergei Murashov to progress quickly. There is no shortage of teams looking for goalies, but Jarry’s wild ride through the 2024-25 season has negated any trade possibility without the Penguins affixing an asset to make it happen. However, should Jarry start well next season, his solid end to this season could make GMs reconsider.
We don’t think Jarry will finish the 2025-26 season with the Penguins, but he’s safe this summer.
Kevin Hayes: Trade inclusion?
Hayes’s pedestrian performance this season neither cemented his status in the lineup nor deemed him AHL worthy. His salary cap hit is more than $3.5 million, but he would otherwise occupy a roster spot that Dubas could use for a prospect or draft pick ready to make the leap forward.
Perhaps Dubas could move him individually with a significant salary holdback. Still, Hayes is more likely destined to be a cap-hit balance or talent-gap balance for any summer trades because his roster spot would be far from guaranteed after Dubas acquires a few more young players via trades, offer sheets, and the draft.
Evgeni Malkin: Farewell Tour.
It is time for Malkin to speak to us lowly media types and say that it’s his last NHL season. He can backtrack later if he finds a groove on the wing or with some of the young guys, but no player in the game has as many back credits for praise. No one has been snubbed, overlooked, or otherwise more forgotten than Malkin, who has a Hart Trophy, Art Ross, and Conn Smythe among his trophy credits.
It would be nice to see other cities and the national media remember him and deliver the adulation that he’s earned, but is frequently denied.
Categorized:Penguins Penguins Offseason Analysis
This: “…other teams must want what Dubas is selling…”
I suggest that Dan put this phrase on a loop to post each time it is suggested that GMKD should trade the Nailers back up goalie to the Islanders for the first pick in the draft…I confess; I exaggerate. The trade should more realistically be to Utah for the 4th pick.
That’s true, but we have no specifics on what the 32 GMs have in mind in regard to trade targets and/or prices they’re willing to pay; speculation ranging from optimistic to pessimistic, but that’s all. I’m confident in Dubas when it comes to trades and drafting – FA signings, not stellar so far. Did anyone think Grandlund and Ceci would command 1st and 3rd round picks as rentals (granted this was TDL) ? Prices fluctuate and it only takes one, sometimes two to tango, or something like that 😉
I think the first overall pick would at least cost the Nailers starting goalie, Taylor Gauthier
Wait a second. You’re saying we can’t trade all our bad players for all their good players with salary retention to make it work?
Hopefully with new suitors and very few teams selling Rakell can get close to KD’s price. I’d have to think with the goalie log jammer – one of Jarry or Ned will be traded maybe early in the season, after camp ? Also if KD retains 50% on Karlsson, I’d think the return would be much more significant in the likes of top tier prospect/young NHL’er – probably not many upper echelon contending teams have their 2026 first left . EK65 at 5 mil for the next 2 years would be attractive to the right club, but getting him to… Read more »
Trade to Dallas.
Karlsson, retain $5m for Bourque, 2026 second, and Dumba. The cap hit for 2025-2026 for Dallas would be $1.25M.
DAL is certainly close to the cap with about 5 mil in space and they’re going to need some cheaper forwards. Not a bad idea, I kind of thought Karlsson would end up back in West. I’d rather take Bourque and Mason Marchment for EK65 50% RS, and send 2 or 3 of Heinen, Acciari, Bemstrom, Poulin, Puustinen.
They don’t have the room to do it still.
So then we would have Dumba AND Graves!!!
Interesting take, Dan. In my opinion, it’s not truly a full reset unless Karlsson, Rakell, and Rust (must be the right deal) are all moved. That shift really began when Guentzel was traded—the clock started ticking then. I get the argument for keeping each of them, and I understand their value. But with a thin pipeline of NHL-ready prospects, a shallow free agent pool, and your most valuable assets being core players from today’s roster—what move sparks a faster reboot than dealing them? If the goal is to avoid being stuck in the middle, then holding onto even one of… Read more »
I wouldn’t get your hopes up for celebrations of Malkin in other cities. I can’t see a Penguins crowd going nuts during the last few minutes of a game for Stamkos, Tavares, Benn, Leon, or Kuch.
Or McDavid.
Who ?
Malkin is so under rated that even when articles are written about how underrated he is they dont mention that he actually has 2x art ross trophys.
Malkin should be going if there’s any way possible to make him or persuade him – Washington always wanted every Pittsburgh player they could get – but that may have changed. That’s this year – why stall for another year with baggage? Rust should also be gone, but not Rackell. Rust is a selfish player but if Sid and Rackell had a young smart player on their line, it would be a joy to behold and something to REALLY build on! They will be a long time getting another “Rackell”. He is such a delight to watch and you could… Read more »
What about the rest of the vets?
Dan was just discussing the ones with trade value. 😁
ouch.
See Dan is much like the rest of the fanbase by foolishly believing that there is a way out of the abyss when the team enters it. Ha what a joke, when Sid is gone everything surrounding the Pens will disappear for good. No more superstar players (only average players will play for the Pens), no more roaring crowds, no more reasons to watch games in fact when Sid does retire they will end up just like Buffalo: Irrelevant but seeing as how Pens Fans and Writers truly want enjoy being miserable for the rest of your lives.
Have you considered a career writing greeting cards?
Honestly No. Have you considered telling Sid to his face that the team is better off without Rust and Rakell and that it would be more prudent to just tank the season? Don’t answer cause I know you media types. Your the kind of person who talks a big game posting these kinds of articles but push comes to shove you ain’t got the guts or balls to repeat your articles to the players face. Am I on the right track about that Dan?
Wow, you’re a jerk. Please just consider yourself banned for an absolute lack of contributions. People can be negative here, but those who come just to throw shade at people and do so at other commenters aren’t welcome.
Rakell needs to be traded to a team with cap space, so a Hayes or Graves type can be attached.
We don’t need cap space, Rakell value has to be maximized to obtain something. So no need to anchor is value. Hayes is out at the end of next season, and maybe Graves can re-learn how to play hockey under the new Head Coach.
Keep EK, try to get rid of Letang, Graves, and Shea. EK defense sucks but these other guys isn’t much better especially Letang. It would save money, make room for some of the kids or at least some bigger more aggressive DMan.
It’s a pipe dream but then so is the Cup for quite a few years.
This “Bryan Rust has to stay to provide leadership to the next group” talk is such bullshit. He is JUST like Rakell in that his value right now will never be higher. Teams looking to take “the next step” want Bryan Rust for all the reasons you think he needs to stay. Can play up and down the line-up; on the power play and penalty kill. Rust goes after 7/1/2025. I hated when they traded Recchi many years ago, but the TEAM MUST COME FIRST. And guess what, if Sid ain’t happy about it, then he can let them know… Read more »
Too many people here are all in on trading Rakell and/or Rust. If they do, they need to get equal value which doesn’t seem likely and I have little faith in our scouting department. Sure, they could probably get it right on the top 10 prospects but beyond that I have serious doubts. If one cares to check, just Google the Pens top draft picks over the last several years. It’s an abomination. Granted, we can”t expect a Lemieux or Crosby every draft but throwing darts at a dart board would bring better results…or maybe that’s what they’ve done.
Vegas could be a dark horse for Karlsson depending on what happens with Pietrangelo and how much salary is retained. If AP (8.8M) goes on LTIR, 65 could definitely step in there and fill the void for about the same salary. The amount of salary retention can be determined by who or what else is included in the deal, but there could be a fit there.