Can Drew O’Connor Skate with Sidney Crosby? Is that a Good Idea?
Drew O’Connor finally had his breakout later last season.
The easy going kid from New Jersey was in his first full NHL season. He scored 16 goals and 33 points in 79 games, and there was no more shuttling in and out of the press box, no more hauling back and forth to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.
He was finally in the NHL, and he earned positive reviews from teammates and coaches alike. His game grew.
“I think watching them is one thing. When you’re on the ice with them, you kind of learn how (Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin) see the game a little differently, and you try to pick things up like that,” O’Connor told PHN back in January. “So I think it’s been a good experience for me, just being on the ice with them and seeing how they see the ice differently.”
He began the season with third-line center Lars Eller, but it wasn’t long before he was being shuffled around the lineup. His growth in aggressiveness and confidence was obvious as injuries, ineffectiveness, and eventually, a blockbuster trade opened top-six spots. For a spell, he consistently skated beside Evgeni Malkin, then finished the season beside Sidney Crosby in place of the traded Jake Guentzel.
All things considered, it wasn’t a bad match, putting the 6-foot-3, hard-skating O’Connor beside Crosby. However, coach Mike Sullivan wasn’t flush with options, either.
The nightly decision was between O’Connor and a terribly vanilla version of Reilly Smith.
It wasn’t bad. O’Connor flashed his power forward potential as he barreled into corners for loose pucks and played the low-zone game with Crosby.
It wasn’t great, either. The raw data is a small bucket of ice water on the probably opening night top line. The data was enough to change my mind.
Crosby-O’Connor By the Numbers
All stats are according to NaturalStatTrick.com.
For context, we’ll give O’Connor the unfortunate comparison to Guentzel, Crosby’s long-time sidecar and consistent 30-goal scorer. It’s not fair to O’Connor but it’s also the reality the Penguins must face in the 2024-25 NHL season; they need to score more goals.
Only 13 teams scored fewer goals than the Penguins, putting them tied for 18th in the league. Considering they boasted the reigning Norris Trophy winner, Erik Karlsson, who broke the 100-point barrier in the previous year, as well as a few Hall of Famers and received an other-worldly performance from Crosby, scoring only 255 goals in a campaign was, at best, sad.
Without Guentzel to pour in the goals beside Crosby, the duty and obligations will fall on O’Connor.
Last season, in 50 games, Guentzel and Crosby boasted a 60% goals-for ratio, 57% expected goals for, and 58% of all scoring chances when they were on the ice.
The bottom line total was 42 goals for, only 28 goals against in 622 minutes of ice time.
Crosby with O’Connor was underwater in the important category: They were outscored 18-15. The duo had a 51% expected goals-for and only 50% of the scoring chances.
Considering Crosby’s play last season, that’s a big dip, and that’s just another lineup deficit facing the team that is stuck at the train station between rebuilding and winning now.
There is one more free agent on the market which could help the Penguins, but it’s July 15 and it’s a bit of a stretch.
Digging deeper into the O’Connor with Crosby line, they allowed 11 goals on high-danger chances but scored only six, while the Penguins goalies posted only an .869 save percentage with them on the ice.
The typical 5v5 save percentage for the other lines is somewhere around .910. Crosby and Guentzel were at .914. While many might hurl an insult or three at the goalies for that number, realize that also includes the furious 14-game charge at the end of the season.
President of hockey operations/GM Kyle Dubas plainly stated he viewed Kevin Hayes as a center so that Hail Mary is unlikely to occur. The other options would be breaking up the successful combination of LW Michael Bunting and Evgeni Malkin or elevating newly signed Anthony Beauvillier to the top line.
With respect to O’Connor, he very well might take a step forward this coming season. He might score more, hold onto the puck more, and force more offense.
To create an equal to Guentzel, O’Connor would need to raise his output by over 30%. Since Dubas likes numbers and analytics, he’s probably seen even more detailed breakdowns.
O’Connor, with Hayes on the third line, would elevate that unit to a firm and reliable unit.
Perhaps the Penguins’ offseason isn’t done yet.
Categorized:Penguins
It’s absolutely horrible that O’Connor is even on the team!!! He’s a complete bum and as a fan it’s sickening when he is at best.. an AHL player and definitely has no business being on a top line, let alone a line with Crosby!!! It’s completely insulting to Crosby and to the fans!!!
One of the more hockey-related delusions I’ve read lately. Congratulations!
Go watch another sport
Did he kick your dog?! That’s certainly a take.
Dan, some of he numbers could be inaccurate due to two reasons: DOC not receiving any power play time and Crosby pouting for 22 games
Those numbers are 5v5.
i think he meant the numbers could be misleading. After the Guentzel trade Crosby wasn’t the same player for a while.
I like O’Connor on the team if he’s in the right role. Playing with Sid on a regular basis means you need 20 goals minimum unless you’re putting up 50 assists. Filling in temporarily is fine, but when you’re counting on the top lines to generate most of the offense, you can’t have people there who don’t make it happen. I’d love to see his game take the next step and see him score 25 goals while using his size and speed to retrieve pucks and help control play.
I don’t see why he can’t play a decent role on Crosby’s line.DOC took a pretty big step upmin my opinion last year.He had 16 goals,33 points..Not bad at all.He didn’t look lost and held his own..I would like to see him play more physical.He is a big kid.Wouldn’t mind seeing him get some pp time either.Don’t see why he can’t be a 20-25 goal scorer on the top line
Hey Dan, I really enjoy this site. At some point, can you do an article addressing the size (or lack of) of this team? It looks like the team has bet on and signed a bunch of undersized players. I have been pining for more size and aggression for this team. I can see other teams playing the Pens and absolutely destroying them physically, that can lead to more injuries. ( I’m still cheezed we didn’t get Zadorov) I realize its still July and the team is likely not set, but this team looks awfully undersized and old. Thoughts anyone?
You are correct sir! The contenders have BIG guys!
They are definitely behind the times as far as acquiring bigger players. The game has changed again since 2017. Problem is that if a team has big and skilled players, those are the players that teams keep! No one is looking to trade size.
Sullivan is stuck in 2017.
The old part is pretty difficult to fix. The size–I’m not sure. For years, I made a lot of Pens fans mad by advocating for some thump in the bottom six, but there are more ways than just size to achieve that “hard to play against” identity. I’ll have to study the top 6-8 teams and get a sense–because the league is changing
The team has limited cap space. If the majority of the market is looking for big/heavy players, their cost goes up; Zadorov’s contract is crazy. Given limited resources, it seems like good GM’ing to focus on smaller, skill guys because their cost will be down relative to big guys. In a perfect world, I would prefer a big/heavy team like the Caps but that’s not where the team is now.
I don’t see O’Connor having the hands and finish to play consistently with 87. Like his speed and grind and feel a 3/4 left wing spot would be ideal
Try Ville Koivunen or Tanner Howe if they have a good camp.
That’s a lot to ask. Not sure if you followed my camp scouting and my scouting of Koivunen last April. Even if Howe makes the roster, not you want a rookie beside Sid–though of the longshot possibilities, he’s got the best chance, imho. Koivunen needs a lot of seasoning.
Yes it is, but Dubas has stated the plan is to get younger and have the core mentor those players. The wisdom of the veterans had to be passed down to the players of the future.
Dan, what are your thoughts on Dominik Kubalik? Looks like he had a down year in OTT last year, but remains unsigned. I guess I don’t know much about him, but was once a 30-goal scorer and currently a 29yo UFA.
O’Connor is not a regular top 6. He is the ideal 3rd liner that could sometimes fill in up top if injuries were to occur. Two words…Patrik Laine!
Yes please
I think the Guentzel trade was a bad one. You need big guns if you want to win, even if wanting to win is in 2 or 3 years. It took Sid’s whole career to find a guy like Guentz that meshed and had the hockey IQ to play with him, and they dominated when they were on the ice……to think you will just find a replacement when it took 12+ years to find someone in the first place is not playing the odds…..I would have given Guentz 8 mil for 8 years if he asked. It is worth it…..instead… Read more »
Unfortunately, if there was no trade, Jake would still be gone today.
He’s kind of the same type of player as Dupuis, so maybe it will work.
I’m probably the minority but I like DOC on Sid’s wing. Someone has to get the puck and DOC is a puck hound at times. He is not Guentzel but no one on this team is. It is not like Sid disappeared AFTER he accepted the loss of Jake, he finished the season very strong. So yeah, DOC wont get you 30 goals but he fits well on the line.
It’s that “After” bit that kept them out of the playoffs. Had they not been so bad for so many games, they make the playoffs. Sigh. Odd how that can happen.
This is the best argument for O’Connor on Sid’s line. Pens need young, fast and fearless puck hounds with a little bit of finishing ability (particularly at net front) to play on wings for Crosby and Malkin, especially as they get older. But Laine would be ideal sort of upgrade for one of those top-6 wing spots, especially on PP.
My breakout player of the year is none other than DOC. He will put up 25 G minimum if he plays 75 games or more.
I am hoping that Laine can get his *&^ together and get reinstated, and that Dubas can go get him (maybe include Jarry and roll the dice with Ned and Blomqvist). Laine could score 15 goals on the PP alone from the left wall (a la Kessel). As Dan alludes, that move should have a huge positive downstream effect on lineup.
Laine, Crosby and Rust.
Bunting, Malkin and Rakell.
Beauvillier, Hayes and O’Connor.
Lizotte, Eller and Accairi.
With Puusti, Neito Puljujarvi and a bunch of young players in the wings to sub in.
Also, i just looked, and Laine’s cap hit is $8.7M for two more years. (1) Someone tell Sid that this is a sign Laine should be a Penguin; (2) Trade Jarry with his $5.3M hit, maybe cut one or two of the ham and eggers on minimum contracts; and (3) Laine fits with existing cap space of $3.2 million. This assumes Laine is healthy, though (both physically and mentally).
Enough with the trade Jarry BS. You trade Jarry you have no options for starting Goaltender. Blomqvist is not an option cause unlike you Dubas and the scouts have more tape on Joel than you have good ideas. Since you cannot get that through your head well as somebody once said: “That’s a you problem”