Penguins Q&A: FSG Involvement; Erik Karlsson & Other Trade Talk

With the Pittsburgh Penguins hanging onto the tail end of the draft in the fight for a Stanley Cup Playoff spot, questions of ownership, Penguins trade potentials, including Erik Karlsson, and some of the less often discussed players who are available.

While the plucky Finns are offered up as sacrificial lambs to Team Canada on Monday, setting up Round 2 of USA vs. Canada on Thursday, a TV audience eagerly awaits. ESPN public relations released the ratings from Saturday, and any fears of a bogus tournament and subsequent audience disinterest evaporated as 4.4 million people watched the Saturday slobberknocker.

It is absolutely true that the tournament means nothing, but it’s also true that it means everything. Historians will not write about this event, nor will it stick in the public consciousness as a bellwether moment to be revered for all time. There will be no ESPN 30 for 30 about it. However, its immediate value cannot be overstated.

To explain, I’ll rewind the clock 30 years. I was a Freshman in college (30 years?! I’ve just ruined my own day), and a History professor had a trick he annually played on students by holding up a dollar bill and asking, “What makes this worth $1?”

He promised to give the dollar to anyone who could explain why. For years running, he kept his dollar, but he didn’t expect me–the oddball in high school who wrote papers on trickle-down economics, studied political trends, and was a national qualifier for debate. Yeah, the ladies couldn’t get enough, but I digress.

Sad that no one knew and too shy to be “that” guy as a Freshman, I sat quietly as a few people answered silly things like the Gold Standard or the Federal Reserve. It wasn’t until he smugly said no one had ever answered that I raised my hand and said, “Because we believe it is.”

He looked at me in shock. That was the right answer. And that’s also why the Four Nations Face-Off matters: Because the players believe it does, because we believe it does. And that’s all that’s needed to grab the almighty dollar.

For the record, I was too shy to take the dollar. One of my classmates quickly volunteered to take it, and I learned another lesson the NHL already knows—grab the money when it is available because it won’t be there for long.

To your questions…

Penguins Q&A

Q1:

Thoughts on keeping RR and EK…long term?

What about Rust??

— Citizen Dick (@bondoa6) February 17, 2025

Answer: In full transparency, I still have a hard time wrapping my head around the end of the world. The Penguins’ championship core is done. Finito. Yet the Dead Man Walking has a couple more years and valuable hockey and culture to impart to the youth before banners are hung, statues are commissioned, and jerseys become retro.

I find myself struggling to know the line between keeping a competitive core and recouping the volume of assets necessary to contend. Trading one player too many can send the team over the cliff, and all of the acquired assets won’t be enough to rebuild the mess. But if they trade one player too few, they’ll be stuck in limbo.

I suspect general manager Kyle Dubas has pondered the same on some of his flights while crisscrossing the continent.

First, Erik Karlsson. A summer trade makes the most sense unless someone comes to the table with a first-rounder before the deadline.

Karlsson wants a Stanley Cup and turns 35 in May. Dubas has a choice—quickly build around him or trade him. The Penguins’ style and roster would need to complement Karlsson, but that’s not going to happen. His performance with Team Sweden shows just how dynamic he can be, but it has not been that way in Pittsburgh. Coaches have publicly admitted they’d like more of THAT version of Karlsson but have instead been given a modified, more traditional defender. He’s played well, but that elite-level gear is all too visible in this Four Nations tournament, drawing a sharp contrast to Pittsburgh.

The NHL salary cap spike, combined with his tournament performance, should tempt a few GMs to make that move.

Second, keep one of Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell. It sure would be nice to keep both because they’re a perfect fit with Sidney Crosby, but I think that’s the line. Keep one. Rust has a no-trade clause through June 30. Rakell is a guy on a 40-goal track. He should be worth a first-rounder, a prospect, and an NHL player. A mere first-rounder for Rakell–probably a late first–isn’t nearly enough and not enough to make a trade.

I suspect Rust will draw less in return than Rakell because Rust has a few more miles–hard miles–on the odometer. Also, Rust is incredibly valuable as a transition piece for the Penguins.

Q2:

Why is Ned playing anything but back to back? Bloom should play almost every game and half way through Larson should come up and play the rest of the year. Can’t make evaluations on the bench or the minors

— VicBlankenship (@vic_blankenship) February 17, 2025

Answer: The simple answer is that the Penguins are trying to make the playoffs, and Nedeljkovic has been playing out of his skates since the team waived Tristan Jarry. You don’t have to believe they can make the playoffs for them to believe they can, or at least try. When Blomqvist becomes the better option in goal to win the next game, he’ll be in the net more often.

I think you’ll see a more balanced net share after the break, but not if Nedeljkovic keeps stopping everything.

Blomqvist is not a star goalie, but he’s going to be a solid goalie. There’s plenty of time to develop him. Patience.

Q3: 

1) Do you think there will be a “surprise” trade of a bigger Penguins name / player with term before the trade deadline?

2) Over / under on 4 Penguins trades still to come before the deadline has passed?

— Matt Meagher (@Flux_cc) February 17, 2025

Answer: No one outside the core three would be a surprise. Michael Bunting, Rakell, Kevin Hayes, and down the line would not be surprising. The biggest name would be Kris Letang, and that might be a conversation for the summer, not the trade deadline. We should strenuously note that there have been no Letang rumors, whispers, or other actionable intelligence beyond conjecture.

2. Under. Dubas made his big move (probably) by dealing Marcus Pettersson and Drew O’Connor to Vancouver. I like two or three NHL deals.

None of the Penguins’ prospects except for Owen Pickering have kicked down the door to the NHL yet, so the Penguins have time. Dubas doesn’t need to immediately clear space for the boys.

Q4: 

Does the increased salary cap mean FSG might load up for one more shot at the Cup? Or at least a number 1 goalie?

— WildPotRoast (@WildPotRoast) February 16, 2025

Answer: Nope. That would cost future assets, but that’s not where the Penguins are going. Also, why would the Penguins trade for a No. 1 goalie (which can be quite expensive) when they have Joel Blomqvist and Sergei Murashov on the way?

The Penguins are building. They would need to acquire several pieces to be a contender, and even then, they have a mountain to climb just to make the playoffs.

Q5:

Where do you see Grzelcyk ending up? With the injury to Heiskanen, I could see him in Dallas running their power play.

— Jim Stripsky (@JimStripsky) February 16, 2025

Answer: Grzelcyk has played very well over the last few months and can run a power play.

But where? Grzelcyk’s modest $2.75 million salary means he could have a dozen suitors, including the Penguins, who might find the market return tepid because Grzelcyk isn’t a front-line defender or a physical playoff type.

Would Columbus choose to upgrade their left side, allowing 20-year-old future sensation Denton Mateychuk to play lower-pressure third-pair minutes while he acclimates to the NHL? Calgary, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Colorado could also use him, and the list keeps going.

It will be interesting to see the Grzelcyk situation unfold. This will be one of those surprise announcements we didn’t see coming.

The final rose:

Answer: 

Fenway Sports Group allowed Dubas to spend over $7 million at the 2024 NHL Draft to acquire a second-round pick (by acquiring Kevin Hayes). Fenway is publicly and privately committed to giving Dubas the resources he needs. FSG chairman Tom Werner was pretty clear about that earlier this season, and conversations during the year have echoed the initial declarations.

Certainly, FSG watches its money closely. Not a penny is spent wastefully or without oversight, but the key takeaway is that they will spend money—they just want a return on investment. A player who helps them win represents a return on investment while spending to the cap needlessly is not a wise investment.

They are the opposite of Pittsburgh Pirates owner Bob Nutting.

The Penguins may or may not spend to the cap ceiling in the coming couple of years, but that will be because they have a handful of young prospects in the lineup (who generally cost about $950,000 against the cap), not because ownership said no. Make no mistake, Dubas has a blank check from the owners.

In fact, it is my impression that Penguins’ on-ice success almost solely depends on Dubas and the organization he’s building. There are no meddling old guys like Jerry Jones, no temper tantrum throwing hedgefund babies, or dorks from the tech sector using the team like its PlayStation. These are professional business people and the first group of professional sports team owners.

If they decide Dubas is on the wrong track, history suggests they will make a move, albeit more methodically than fans expect. FSG will never have the local cache of Mario Lemieux or be beloved like the Rooneys, but spending money won’t be an issue.