Penguins
Penguins Rebuild: The Undeniable Lesson from the NHL’s Final 4
As rebuilding strategies go, gambling on several years of having the top picks in the NHL Draft might have the same odds of rebuilding a team as a handful of scratchers from the local convenience store.
Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas has also alluded to the uncertainty of chasing top draft picks at the top of the draft, and the 2025 lottery rewarded that view as the 11th and 14th teams won. The New York Islanders, not the Chicago Blackhawks or San Jose Sharks, or even the surprisingly woeful Nashville Predators, got the first overall pick.
Teams selecting between fourth and 10th actually lost two draft spots because the Utah Mammoth won the lottery for the second pick, thus moving up 10 spots to No. 4 (teams can only move up a maximum of 10 spots).
Even the Philadelphia Flyers, who held the fourth overall pick, slid back to sixth. That’s a significant difference for a team that made sure to lose a few more games down the stretch, while others like the Penguins and Seattle Kraken were reinforcing their culture with wins.
Fortunately, as the NHL winds to the dramatic conclusion of the 2024-25 season, there is a lesson that should sing to the Penguins and Dubas:
Depth over stars.
Sure, the star-studded Edmonton Oilers, led by all-time great Connor McDavid, might look like favorites to reverse last year’s heartbreaking Stanley Cup Final loss and restore the Stanley Cup to the Great White North, the first Canadian team to win it since 1993. Still, they also have the toughest road in recent memory to get there.
The top-heavy Oilers stand in contrast to the other three teams remaining.
The other top-heavy teams are already at home. They either didn’t make the playoffs (*Ahem, Penguins) or were summarily dismissed from the aforementioned proceedings (See also: Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights).
The term superstar or star player is rife with semantics, the primary example being the very, very good Winnipeg Jets players Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck, and Vegas, led by Jack Eichel and some very well-paid defensemen, Noah Hanafin, Shea Theodore, and Alex Pietrangelo.
The Deciding Factor
Skipping the tedious and pedantic arguments over superstars, the simple lesson for the Penguins to learn is: Lineup depth is the key.
The Dallas Stars have only six players who make more than $6 million, and we’re counting Miko Rantanen, whose $12 million average annual value deal kicks in next season. Otherwise, Dallas doesn’t have a player in eight figures, and they are flush with players who fit their role perfectly, from the top line to the third pairing.
Roope Hintz, Matt Duchene, and Wyatt Johnson are the first, second, and third-line centers, respectively.
Dallas is perfectly balanced and deeper than the Gulf of Mexico. Or America? You can pick which.
Brad Marchand is a third-liner in Florida with center Anton Lundell and left-wing Eetu Luostarinen, and the line is unstoppable. Winning and championships may have elevated Florida’s salary cap structure. Still, the players Florida is spending on are highly productive role players, like Sam Bennett (who will get a hefty payday next season, either in Florida or elsewhere via free agency) and Swiss Army knife Evan Rodrigues.
Remember when the Penguins balked at paying E-Rod just $2 million? Yeah, that was another whiff by former GM Ron Hextall. But I digress.
There’s not a bad contract in the Florida bunch, though goalie Sergei Bobrovsky had to play his way into his $10 million cap hit that he signed six years ago.
From Sam Reinhart to the Selke favorite Aleksander Barkov at the top of the lineup to Nate Schmidt on the third pairing, they don’t have a weakness.
The third of the four teams to prove the theorem is the one that does it the best: the Carolina Hurricanes.
Perhaps Sebastian Aho would be a star player in another system or another city. Still, the blue-collar Hurricanes are the most tenacious, gritty, annoyingly hard-to-play-against team to grace the NHL in a long, long time.
The team resembles third-line center Jordan Staal, who lacks the flash or panache of star players, but has been a bedrock of consistency and responsibility. Defenseman Jaccob Slavin is the most underpaid D-man in the NHL, by a country mile.
Slavin might finish second or third in the Norris Trophy voting this season, but he won’t make more than $6.3 million for three more years.
Aside from Carolina’s top line with Andrei Svechnikov, Aho, and Seth Jarvis, there aren’t many players who strike fear into opponents. There aren’t players for whom opposing coaches need to game plan against, but instead, teams must steel their patience and prepare for a 60-minute battle for every puck when they play Carolina.
One of those four teams is going to win the Cup, and depth will be the deciding factor.
Fortunately for the Penguins, depth is a replicable, achievable goal that Dubas can chase. It’s not as fun or sexy as having the best in the world. After all, that’s how the Penguins should always rebuild, right? Lose for a few years, get a few top overall picks who will make the Hall of Fame, win a couple or few Stanley Cups, and do it over again.
If only it were that easy.
It’s quite possible that many of us will never see a player like Mario Lemieux or Sidney Crosby in a Penguins sweater again. Many organizations haven’t had one player even close, yet Pittsburgh has snared four generational players (Evgeni Malkin and Jaromir Jagr are the others). The lottery and the rarity of those types of players at the top make rebuilding that way an iffy proposition. Finding the next hero is up to fate and the lottery gods, but what Dubas can achieve is rock-solid, impenetrable depth if he wants the Penguins to win more championships.
I fully agree. Draft and develop good complimentary and role players who can play a good all around game. Use salary cap space to bring in better players who play a good all around game. Don’t need superstars. Have great team balance 1 through 20. Be tough to play against and focus on defense.
Depth for sure. But I’d go one step further and add the roster profile as the 2nd layer. FL put on a clinic vs. the Matthews, Marner, Nylander led Maple Loafs. They smothered them. Why? FL is big, physical, fast, and skilled. They can play any type of game the opponent wants to play. They have an answer for anything and everything. The DL roster is loaded with size and physicality. They have no popsicles on D (I’m looking at you POJ). So I hope KD adds size and physicality. This also points to Mr. Love, who is 5’11” 175lbs… Read more »
To be fair, in two of those games, TOR didn’t look like they wanted to play _any_ type of game. 🙂
You nailed it. Got to get physical.
Depth > StarPower ; But ideally you’d like to have both. I still think you need a player or two who is able to take a game over when the situation calls for it – like Crosby or Rantanen during the DAL playoffs. Good thing for KD, we already have the rare superstars in Crosby, Malkin and Karlsson. If he can acquire a few depth pieces which compliment the new HC’s scheme, they should be heading in the right direction for the re-build. We’ll see what happens, but I’d say McGroarty, Koivunen, Brunicke and Pickering should be assisting with the… Read more »
Malkin is a HOF player. He WAS a star. He can no longer handle 2C and needs to be replaced if we want the 2nd line to produce. You don’t need to be a pro scout to see that his age has sapped his game.
I think Malkin can play that 2L center role if he has very good, strong 2-way wingers. He needs to adjust his game though…his full tilt game is glitchy and only good for like 25 second shifts most nights.
You totally miss the point when you include over paid prima Donna Karlsson. This team won’t ever win a Cup with him and his $10m cap hit
He will be gone at some point anyhow. There is no need for Karlsson on a team that is rebuilding. Regardless of how you feel about him, he is still a good/sometimes great player.
E-Rod wanted more money and longer term. It was said he turned down a 3 year $10.5 mil deal from someone else. He fired his agent and accepted the 1 year $2mil from Col after receiving no other offers!
Well, the Pens have 1 player making 8 figures (Karlsson), 3 others making over $6M (Crosby/Malkin/Letang), and 3 others making over $5M (Rakell/Rust/Jarry). So the problem isn’t the lack of salary cap space to play solid depth players, but the actual players they are paying. Adding McGroarty and Koivunen (and Pickering) with the entry level contracts will help the cap numbers. Unfortunately Dubas needs to shed some players to bring in better replacements which is never simple and getting better replacements means bidding against other teams to get them.
The way the fans reacted towards the end of that Game 7… #1993forever
After watching the Leaf/Panther series I need to have my memory refreshed. Why did Dimitri Kulikov not capture a spot on Pens blue line a few years back? He seems more than capable.
SULLY!
Let it go, he is gone, man
A question was asked. An answer was rendered. Stop being a Sullivan sycophant. It is embarrassing.
It’s more embarassing the other way. He is gone, no need to discuss him any further. So, Kulikov getting hurt is bamed on Voldemort?
No. You got it backwards. Voldemort is responsible for not pounding the table to bring back Kulikov oin what would have been a very affordable contract. Voldemort’s reasoning was Kulikov wasn’t a puck-moving defenseman. Voldemort was also responsible for shunning E-Rod…too many stupid penalties. Voldemort also doesn’t care for younger players. Throw enough his way and he runs with tail tucked between his legs, most likely for a gunnysack full of cash..
It is cool that you had access to those meetings and not making things up.
He was also responsible for the area 51 cover up. 🙄
Didn’t he get injured shortly after joining the Pens??
Yes he did.
100% agree. Dump Karlsson, add some Kunitz, Hornqvist types (Sam Bennett?), and 1 or 2 very good defensemen to go with new forwards and d-men coming up from Wilkes, and we are in business very quickly.
YEP! They are all over the place!
Dan, there is no hyperbole in suggesting that none of your current subscribers will live to see another tandem of Lemieux and Crosby. There are only 4 faces on Mount Rushmore but lots of room at its base for the Lilliputians du jour. Bottom line is that 30-40 seasons from now the 4 players you mentioned (the 2 giants plus Malkin and Jagr) will still be the best hockey players any Penguins fan will have seen play. It’s not just hockey. Hank Aaron, Roberto Clemente, Michael Jordan, LeBron James are not coming again during the lifetimes of anyone reading this… Read more »
Paul Maurice stated in an interview that the 3rd and 4th lines as grinder only lines is antiquated, and that now you have 4 lines playing the same way. Certainly, he did not imply that all four lines would be equal in talent, but that they would play the same game. He also alluded to the fact that home ice advantage has been minimized because of the parity in the lines, in his opinion, the grinder lines either had more impact or were impacted by the home crowd.
I agree on the depth, if you have the talent to fill it out. If you don’t, you better be the Oilers.
100%
🎯 🎯🎯