Analysis: Are Dubas and Sullivan on Same Page? Did Letang Throw Shade?

The Pittsburgh Penguins’ overall trajectory was always going to be down before it could go up. Such is the nature of salary cap sports run by human beings who must look forward and not make decisions with the benefit of perfect hindsight. Yet several factors are specifically crushing this Penguins team that should have been avoidable, if not foreseen.

Eight blown leads in 21 games? Wait, that’s eight multi-goal leads in 21 games.

The baseline facts are easy to cite and easier to clench your teeth and demand better. The team is demanding better, so there’s no reason that fans shouldn’t either. It seems the Penguins have many culprits, but the same few seem to be at the center of the storm when problems arise.

Did Kris Letang throw a little shade their way Wednesday in the locker room when trying to explain why so … so many lost leads?

“I think, for the most part, the problem is individual. And I think it translates as a team performance. We play two good periods where (the opponent) goes one, it’s enough to lose you the game,” Letang said.

Huh.

We didn’t get a chance to follow up, but it’s an interesting take.

Individual Problems

There’s no question that goalie Tristan Jarry has failed to provide timely goaltending this season. In his limited starts, the former presumptive No. 1 goalie has given up bad early goals and bad late goals, such as washing away a fine performance against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday by completely losing his net in overtime, allowing Brayden Point an easy stuff-in.

Of course, Point was able to score without much resistance from Matt Grzelcyk, who Point also burned for the first goal of the game. Grzelcyk has been on the ice for far too many goals against. At even strength, Grzelcyk is a minus-10 in just 21 games. But if you prefer the advanced analytics at NaturalStatTrick.com, they’re only slightly better, with a 44% expected goals-for ratio.

As a top-pairing defenseman, much responsibility to defend falls upon Grzelcyk, but he’s been visible in more of the opposing team’s highlights than his own.

Erik Karlsson’s work in the defensive zone is often a problem, too. The Karlsson calculus has always included shaky defense but enough offense to overcome it. However, as the Penguins struggle to defend leads, Karlsson’s defensive shortcomings and sometimes less-than-maximum effort defense are glaring.

With a lead, the game can shift to a defensive position–at least for a moment while the other team pushes back–and the Penguins simply struggle to defend or keep the puck out of their net.

The forwards have rotated their scapegoat positions, though those responsible for shutdown defense have indeed struggled, too.

Dubas And Sullivan

In full disclosure, nary a hint of disagreement has been whispered or heard through the walls at PPG Paints Arena. No, this is more about understanding which players will be/would be successful.

To date, very few of Dubas’s acquisitions have worked well. Goalie Alex Nedeljkovic might be the biggest success story, but certainly no skaters have overperformed their expectations, and most have underperformed.

Now then.

Tracing back the Penguins’ acquisitions over the last two seasons raises a legitimate question to the fore. Did or does general manager Kyle Dubas understand coach Mike Sullivan’s system?

Actually, Sullivan’s system borders on philosophy, but we’ll save that for another day. First, some working knowledge of the structure is important before we ask the pressing question.

In No Pucks Given, Episode 6, we played the extended clip of Sullivan answering a question about Michael Bunting, but in doing so, really laying bare the decisions and responsibilities of the forwards as part of the “system.” It’s at the 15:45 mark.

“He’s tracking back into the D-zone and recognizing which forward he is. Is he the first forward back and the low man? Is he the second forward back, is he the third forward back, and with all of those things, there come responsibilities,” Sullivan replied on Nov. 11. “(Bunting) is doing better just recognizing which guy he is (when) tracking back.”

Another set of situations and decisions follows regarding puck battles and positioning. Sullivan was correct when he quipped that if he explained it all, we’d be there for three days.

Here is the important thing: It also takes a certain elevated hockey IQ to succeed. Sullivan designed his system to give star players maximum leeway to do things only star players can do because star players see things or anticipate things in a much different way.

So, did Dubas truly understand Sullivan’s system when he began acquiring players?

Karlsson was most consistently successful in Guy Boucher’s 1-3-1, tight defensive system in Ottawa, though he did an enormous amount of freelancing. Karlsson could do unpredictable things because the remainder of the team was in the structure. The last time Karlsson was on a playoff team was under coach Pete DeBoer–another tight systems coach.

Such isn’t the case now.

At the risk of pulling things out of context, Karlsson hates summer hockey because of the lack of systems. He says he’s terrible without one.

A measure of speed is also required for Sullivan’s system, but over the summer, Dubas acquired Kevin Hayes and Cody Glass because they arrived with some talent and a commensurate draft pick(s) attached.

However, neither are above-average skaters, especially Hayes.

Visibly, Grzelcyk is not the zippy skater he was, either. Worse, Grzelcyk succeeded in coach Bruce Cassidy’s defense-friendly system but not nearly as much in Jim Montgomery’s fast, uptempo system. Grzelcyk became a healthy scratch in a system that more closely resembled Sullivan’s.

Defenseman Ryan Graves is an extreme case. He was serviceable in Lindy Ruff’s rigid New Jersey structure but has otherwise swam upstream in Pittsburgh.

It seems like Dubas and staff should have accounted for some or much of the above.

So, the Penguins are left to defend leads with a subpar defense corps and a mismatch between the coach’s whiteboard and the real-life Xs and Os on it.

This team wasn’t supposed to be this bad. It was supposed to give Sidney Crosby a chance to make the playoffs, but instead, it’s on pace to give Dubas a chance at the first overall pick. The incongruencies on so many levels are so large that they would be visible from the space station.

Assign blame as you will. That’s the situation.