Unfiltered: Next Penguins GM Pick a Lane, or Why Keep the Core?
The beginning of this story was written somewhere between Denver and Dallas in late March. The thoughts then were the same as the thoughts now. The Pittsburgh Penguins were a jumbled, sloppy mess. Somewhere beneath their disheveled and sometimes frustrated exterior still lies the heart of the champion. It’s old. It doesn’t beat like it once did, and it takes a little more drama or fear to get it pumping at its ideal rate.
A new GM will soon get a crack at open heart surgery, but to repair the blockages and damage, very difficult decisions will be made about the present vs. the future.
One ideal must be pursued. They cannot both serve as dominating pursuits simultaneously. One can balance the other, but pursuing both means neither is served.
The new GM, almost presumably Kyle Dubas or his hand-picked choice, must revitalize the Penguins’ lineup. I’m not sure even the players would tell you they should be back in the same form. However, the blockages that must be cleared can’t be removed easily.
Jeff Carter is on a 35+ contract. That means whether he plays in Germany, Wilkes-Barre, or sits at home, he counts full boat against the Penguins’ salary cap.
PHN has been shocked to learn how little trade value Mikael Granlund has. The deal to acquire him from Nashville was every bit as bad as some Penguins fans feared. Through a mutual friend, one potential GM candidate was quoted as saying the first act would be to buy out Granlund.
While I disagree, because it would mean four years of paying Granlund, that should give you context for how difficult the next GM’s job will be.
We’ll table the Tristan Jarry and Jason Zucker decisions for now.
To revamp the Pittsburgh Penguins, the new GM must move out players other teams won’t be keen to acquire. Translation: Dubas, er, the new GM, would necessarily affix assets to those players to facilitate a trade.
Putting the decision into context, is it worth giving up Owen Pickering to move Carter or Granlund? Is it worth giving up the first-round pick to move anyone?
Here’s an armchair GM absurdity I can’t stop pondering: Trade down in the first round, use the acquired assets to move players, and maybe keep a piece for themselves. It would require prime Craig Patrick-level horse-trading and a lot of luck.
The other armchair GM absurdity I can’t stop pondering is trading up in the draft for Matvei Michkov. If Columbus balks at No. 3, all bets are off about where he could go. Michikov is under a KHL contract through 2026, but he’s probably the second-best player in the draft, and the Penguins have a player who is owed a few favors back in Russia. Evgeni Malkin is no Alex Ovechkin in terms of “friends of Putin,” but perhaps he has some pull.
Trading up would cost a real asset, such as an All-Star winger. Or it would take a top prospect and an additional significant piece.
Those are absurdities, but they point out that the next GM will have to figure out a way to revamp the roster. Some of the moves will be gambles because the Penguins are not in a position of strength.
But if they don’t revamp for the present, what’s the point of keeping Kris Letang and Malkin? For that matter, what’s the point of keeping Sidney Crosby?
There, I wrote it. Loyalty is admirable, but what’s the point of loyalty if it serves no greater purpose? Without purpose, loyalty becomes comfort and nothing more.
Those players are too proud to be dancing bears in a sideshow of failure.
And yet, with a few moves, I firmly believe the Penguins could become a playoff team again. A revamped third line, targeting speed through free agency, and the team could again be more competitive than frustrated.
The good news is the game is absolutely moving toward puck-pursuit instead of possession, and that next evolution opens a window for the Penguins to target speed — cheap speed — through free agency. Get players who can forecheck and transition. Even use the Penguins’ tradition and existing structure to rescue a few castoffs from other organizations.
See also: Vegas Golden Knights. The next William Carrier and William Karlsson are out there. Covering the Golden Knights, I see them as the 1970s Oakland Raiders, a team of misfits and castoffs desperately wanting that second chance. Or third. And they can feel the opportunity to be different in the desert sun.
Revamping the Penguins’ blue line won’t be easy, either, but either size or speed is needed. The Penguins’ blue line is caught in the middle, with a little bit of speed, a bit of size with Jan Rutta and Jeff Petry, and a bit of offense.Â
They have a little bit of everything, but not enough of one thing to execute a strategy built on an identity.
But for now, Kyle Dubas, er, the next Penguins GM, is inheriting a mess.
Whoever the new GM is GB him if he can fix this Hextall DEBACLE !!
This story should have been written one year ago. Instead, all we got from fans and media was You can’t trade Geno or Tanger! Not fair, not fair, not fair! #TooLate
Nah. The blunders were the third and fourth lines and lack of quality goaltending, not re-signing Geno or Tanger.
Invest $16 million in two average players who are well past their primes, and it limits the ability to add depth pieces. Worse yet, they’ll be on the books for the next three-to-five seasons with diminishing returns. As the Blackhawks and Kings have confirmed in recent years, that’s a formula for failure. #LessonUnlearned
Are you talking about Letang and Malkin? Collectively they make just over $12 mil.Put the numbers of Malkin and Letang up against players who made a similar salary and you may be surprised. How many players making around $6mil had 83 points last season? 🤔
Well, there are some that are close. And if you factor in +/- and determine the AAV per point, you might be surprised a bit to see who was close. Then check the Age column. (You can even ignore the ones in EDM.)
My desire of “trading” 71+42 for Trocheck and Nino would have paid off this year. And, likely, going forward. Ah well. Maybe when 16 walks we can get 42 back. 🙂
Its a case of the grass isn’t always greener. Replacing Geno with trocheck would not have helped the team because they would have had a great 3rd line center for 2nd liner money. Neiderreiter is just as streaky as Kapanen and slightly less soft so it would have been almost as much money for way less production. No second liners but a way better 3rd line.
Well, Trocheck and Nino were my ideas. Obviously I’m not a GM but you and I see things a bit differently (although I tend to agree with you more than just about everyone else here). You asked for point comparisons and I did a little research. Shrug, no harm. However, I don’t agree that Nino is ‘just as streaky’ or ‘slightly less soft’ than 42 (no big). There’s something to be said about Nino always seeming to be of interest to playoff teams (42 never). And I think Trocheck would be a better all around player than 71 for more… Read more »
I kind of agree about Geno in the sense that he won’t continue to produce like he did last season for the remainder of his contract. That would not be realistic to believe that. In all likelyhood it would be totally realistic to think that next season he ends up around 50 points and he doesnt play all the games. Does that mean it was a bad contract? Well, no. The penguins needed to sign a 2nd line center and got the best one available on a bargain deal. Trocheck is a great 3rd liner, but not having a 2nd… Read more »
Letang had his worst stats in five years. Was re-signed despite a history of heart problems, suffered another stroke and sat out 18 games. Malkin scored about 45 percent of his points on the PP. Was a non-factor 5×5 as usual. Also was a minus player for the fourth time in the last five seasons. Neither fared well in most of the key metrics categories. But they’re Geno and Tanger, so they get free passes here. According to Spotrac, each was paid $8 mil with $6.1 mil cap hits. For a team that had zero chance to be a SC… Read more »
You’re damn right.
Stop with the Letang/Malkin crap. They are the best players Pens have for peanuts. Look at their performance, and stop the bs.
New management needs to fix the bottom half and goalies. Look, many other teams have much harder things to fix, and remember only 16 out of 32 teams make the playoffs, and only one team wins the Stanley Cup. The pens have 3 with these guys. Be proud, and move on, and up
That is never going to happen. These people are relentless complainers. I honestly don’t know why i engage. Maybe i like arguing with a wall.
I think some of us look at the team’s trajectory and would rather “pull up” then increase speed. The “core” isn’t going to get any younger so we can all watch the what happens or do something about it. Shrug.
You mean Petry, Granlund and Carter, right?
“What’s the point…?” Some of us got skewered for asking the same question last summer before the contract drama. Ah well… here they are.
(I’m still not convinced 87 signs a new contract. I think it’s going to take more than two seasons to fix and, really, what else does he have to accomplish? IOW, what’s the point? Personally, I hope he pulls a 68 but I don’t see it right now.)
Ding-ding-ding-ding! Turns out we were the smart one, brah.
A mess is an understatement. Stay put at 14 & move out what you can. The cup even with this core is no longer in reach. Playoffs? Yes. Cup? No
One thing stands out about these last few series: every square inch of ice surface is being contested hard. The play is several notches elevated from the regular season in terms of physicality. That’s not a forte of the current Pens roster. Another observation….Whichever team can establish dominance of the middle in both O zone and D zone will flourish. The other team will get pushed to the perimeter, which happens to be where the current Pens live. Finally, size seems to matter. All 4 semi-final teams are big. Something the Pens aren’t. So the next GM needs to do… Read more »
Hahaha totally agree on the puck pursuit nonsense. Its just the new shiny word for forechecking. Its a staple of the game to GET POSSESSION of the puck.
You lost me at “shocked” that Granlund has little trade value. Every Pens fan knew that the second (pun intendent) the trade was announced. He will be bought out, no way another high draft pick will be waste on him. Or worse, waste a roster spot of 5 million $ in cap space.
I wouldn’t buy him out (too costly over too many years). Either roll with him or send him away in a trade (if he is, indeed, that bad).
Yes. Trade them all. Start over. They’re not good enough and with a low salary cap, it’s almost impossible to improve.
I’d look to trade back to get assets to deal along with the “dead weight” aka 90% of the pens roster —– tear it down to Geno Sid & Chris and quality prospects like Joseph and the kid we got from NJDevils
There’s an article on the Athletic about Hextall, contracts, Morehouse… It just scratches the surface, but it was obvious that players don’t want to play under these people or conditions. Hextall’s trades look like someone that says: OK, here you go if you’re so angry. Let’s see what you’ll do when I ruin your last couple of seasons. Sour relationships within an organization never lead to anything good. Granlund we must keep and just let him grind on 4th. Carter should be retired and paid to watch from home. The problem is Petry. Would someone want him? I highly doubt… Read more »
I’d like to see the team taken out of their “comfort zone”. It’d be fun to watch Sutter as coach.
Let’s face it short of a miracle there is no qick fix to this mess. If they dont make the playoffs again next season what is everyone going to say? Theyve got to start rebuilding some day. Maybe it should have happened before this past season.