Analysis: The Penguins Blown Leads and the Two Difficult Answers

ELMONT, NY — The Pittsburgh Penguins have squandered, punted, and otherwise blown the last four two-goal leads they’ve earned, not counting the 3-1 win over the Montreal Canadiens, which included an empty-net goal.

Prior to that, the Penguins gagged on a trio of 2-0 leads, including a pair on the recent four-game road strip. Tuesday night, while the world watched election returns, the Penguins dropkicked a 3-1 third period lead to the New York Islanders in a 4-3 shootout loss.

That’s four leads in 14 games. Four points are gone (they rallied to win against Buffalo on Oct. 16).

The season is a little early for that many lost leads, isn’t it?

The Penguins have a serious problem, but it’s not the system that has earned them the leads in the first place. Many who cite coach Mike Sullivan’s system insist a trap would be the solution. Unfortunately for that argument, the new and fast NHL game will eat alive any attempt at playing backward. It would fail as often as it succeeds.

The Penguins’ problem is … drum roll, please … the Penguins. The problem lies between 18 players’ ears. The problem lies with a lack of shutdown defensemen.

How does a player as dynamic as Kris Letang get beat by Kyle Palmieri to a loose puck near the net? Letang had a step and position, but Palmieri got a free whack at the puck anyway.

How does Simon Holmstrom beat Blake Lizotte, a defensive specialist, to a rebound on a third period power play?

Evgeni Malkin and Matt Grzelcyk allowed Jean-Gabriel Pageau unfettered access to the low slot for the game-tying goal. The Penguins had five players between the dots and protecting the net. Yet Pageau still had feet of space.

Five players in position. None defending.

This only further illustrates the conundrum Sullivan faces: Puck-watching and mental breakdowns in the most crucial moments.

“We just need to play better. We should have played the way that we played in the first two periods,” Sullivan said with a bit of a snarl. “We would have been fine. You know, we played a straight-ahead game (in the first two periods). I think we weren’t as diligent with the puck. We didn’t play as much north-south.”

The trap wouldn’t prevent spectating like that. In fact, it might encourage more. After beating Anaheim on Saturday, both Sidney Crosby and Alex Nedeljkovic alluded to ongoing and team-wide conversations about the need to defend well. Crosby spoke of adhering to fundamentals; the little details add up to big details.

Of course, the Penguins beat both Montreal and Anaheim without amassing a two-goal lead before the final seconds. Heaven help them if they had gotten a 3-1 lead on either in the second period; this could have been a nine-game winless streak.

The immediate solutions are not easy. The Penguins do not have multiple rock-ribbed shutdown defensemen. Ryan Graves and Jack St. Ivany are the third pair but have been inconsistent this season. Graves followed his best game as a Penguins Saturday, with a couple of potentially crucial turnovers Tuesday. St. Ivany had shaky moments, too.

The Penguins are supposed to have defensive forwards, but the second goal was scored against the sixth-ranked penalty-killing unit, and the tying goal was scored against Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang.

The frustration naturally flows to a singular point. For a moment, external blame split between goalie Tristan Jarry and Sullivan. Now that Jarry has been removed from the equation temporarily, Sullivan bears the brunt of public frustration as leads become losses, and hope becomes disappointment.

The immediate solution is a reckoning within the locker room to rebouble efforts with a lead rather than sit back. Rickard Rakell admitted to PHN last night that “maybe” they did. The immediate solution is to keep drilling into the players’ consciousness that every shot matters in the final 10 minutes, and they need to play like that.

The bigger solution rests with general manager Kyle Dubas. A team with a shaky blue line is going to squander leads. A team built for offense with Letang and Erik Karlsson on the blue line that doesn’t score is going to toss a few more leads into the garbage—which the Penguins have done for three seasons running.

It’s not the chef, it’s the ingredients. But all involved need to figure out a way to make a better dish, or it is the season that will soon be cooked.