Penguins Fork in the Road; Players, Dubas Difference

With plates of hot wings and nachos downed leading to high fives in sports bars across America in the first week of the NFL season, it’s a far better signal than falling leaves that hockey season is soon here. It has been a different sort of offseason for the Pittsburgh Penguins, acquiring draft picks instead of star players, reclamations instead of stable contributors, but the questions will soon have answers.

And what happens when we start getting some of those answers?

Hope springs eternal, but perhaps even in the Penguins’ locker room, not many would count them as Stanley Cup contenders. Instead, captain Sidney Crosby recently spoke of reversing a recent trend and getting into the playoffs.

Read More: Penguins Blog: Was That So Hard? Crosby Insights, Understands Dubas

That will be the fundamental difference between the players and president of hockey operations/GM Kyle Dubas when approaching this season. Recall that Dubas outright dismissed merely making the playoffs as a goal when he spoke at the 2024 NHL Draft in Las Vegas.

“For me, the range is looking beyond just the one season, and I wouldn’t deem it a success if we got into the playoffs next year by a point. We want to get back to being a contender,” Dubas said at the Draft. “I mean, the coaches and the players have to look at it day to day. They’re trying to win every day. I have to look at it with a much broader lens–for Pittsburgh to be a team that just squeaks in (isn’t good enough). I understand that would be nice to be in, but we want to be a contender.”

Sure, in the heat of the battle, if the group he’s assembled shows some promise, Dubas may change his mind and add reinforcements later in the season. However, the same situation faced Philadelphia Flyers general manager Daniel Briere last season.

The upstart Flyers were almost a lock for a playoff berth, but Briere also steadfastly reminded everyone that making the playoffs isn’t the goal, but building a Stanley Cup contender is. Instead of acquiring talent, Briere traded top-four defenseman Sean Walker to the Colorado Avalanche, receiving a late first-rounder as part of the return package (the Flyers also took on Ryan Johansen, which has proved to be its own can of worms, eventually culminating in their contract termination attempt that the NHLPA is contesting).

Dubas could face the same mighty decision, but unlike Philadelphia, Dubas has Crosby. Erik Karlsson. And Evgeni Malkin.

Karlsson allowed a trade to the Penguins because he wanted to win a Stanley Cup, and by making that trade, they tacitly promised that effort. Any team with Crosby will have a puncher’s chance in a playoff series. In fact, the Penguins badly outplayed their opponents in each of their last two playoff series (Islanders in 2021, Rangers in 2022), but they couldn’t overcome goaltending issues and unique bad luck.

With stars capable of winning, would Dubas waffle?

He probably should, if even just a little.

However, using the Philadelphia example, it’s certainly conceivable that Dubas could trade pending free agent defenseman Marcus Pettersson—in the same way Philly traded Walker—if the return is a similar first-round pick. Lars Eller, also a pending free agent,, could be trade bait for a draft pick.

Penguins Downturn

If we flip the script, Dubas will have far more options and decisions, but they would probably not be as difficult. If the Penguins are headed for a third-straight playoff miss, there would be little reason to hang onto veterans outside the core who are not protected by a no-movement or no-trade clause.

Even some of the veterans with those clauses could be asked to waive them. Bryan Rust’s no-movement clause expires next summer, and if he chose to allow it, he would be an extremely valuable scorer and leader to an inexperienced team headed for the playoffs.

Rickard Rakell and even Karlsson would or could be fair game, as would the new players on short-term contracts, such as Matt Grzelcyk and Kevin Hayes.

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Some salary holdbacks or help may be needed, but the fork in the Penguins’ road would be clear and there would be little reason to hang on to what isn’t working.

Of course, it is coach Mike Sullivan’s job and the players’ job to avoid the nuclear scenario. As Dubas conceded, it’s their desire and job to win, but his job to look out for the franchise and future of the club.

It’s an interesting storyline. I suspect it could even divide Penguins fans, some of whom seem to be rooting for an aggressive and thorough rebuild. Of course, a few divisions would be nothing new.