Analysis: Dubas’s Very Narrow Path, Why Penguins Can’t Tank or Succeed
It is an issue for many that falls into mere semantics, but for Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas it means defining the core of his strategy. What exactly is tanking, and should the Penguins do it?
“Tank for McKenna” is the slogan that the Penguins fanbase and others will adopt this season. Wins will be met as losses, and losses as wins, as fans operate under the assumption that losing gives them the best chance to land the latest phenom who could instantly turn a franchise’s rebuild into a quick contendership.
As a starting point, 93.7 The Fan host Jason Mackey and I debated this very topic Monday evening. In fact, it was Mackey’s contention that the Penguins should tank that spurred this column. You can hear our debate here.
Now, remember this key detail: Finishing with the worst record in the NHL only gives a team an 18.5% chance at drafting first overall. That means even losing the most games gives a team an 81.5% chance of NOT getting the first pick.
Edit: As some readers pointed out, there is a small chance of teams from outside the top 11 winning the lottery. The worst team does indeed have an 18.5% chance of winning the lottery, but a 25% chance of getting the top pick. PHN doesn’t feel that the statistical difference changes the column.
As a cautionary tale, the 10th and 14th place teams won the 2025 NHL Draft lottery. Are you picking up what I’m putting down?
Before jumping for joy each time the Penguins lose in the 2025-26 NHL season, we must lay out the full breadth and consequences in explicit detail. Not only does losing merely give a team a paltry two in 10 chance to win the lottery, but the consequences to the players and culture can be quite harsh and long-lasting.
How is a player such as Ville Koivunen or Owen Pickering supposed to grow into a “Pittsburgh Penguin” with full pride and their best game if they go into games not believing they can win or that their best doesn’t matter?
It’s a real question. Many organizations before them have earned the stench of losing. The Penguins have been extremely lucky to have been gifted by the hockey gods a pair of legends named Mario Lemieux and Sidney Crosby. In fact, the Penguins had just a 6% chance of getting Crosby because the NHL allowed all 30 teams into the 2005 Draft lottery on the basis of the canceled season, necessary to force the players’ union into accepting a salary cap.
Also, the NHL had long tired of teams tanking for the top pick — see also the 1983 Penguins, who waived their starting goalie for the unspeakable crime of getting on a hot streak. The NHL introduced the draft lottery in 1995.
So, tank, lose, stink, and get rewarded, right?
No. That tightrope between providing hope and limiting the team’s chances to be successful this season is a very fine and wobbly stretch of cable, if it can be navigated at all. Yet, Dubas must appear to be trying to build a winner because that weight of losing changes attitudes and cultures.
The Buffalo Sabres weren’t always a downtrodden laughing stock. The Detroit Red Wings were once the kings of the universe, and late-round draft picks blossomed into stars, in part because the culture and atmosphere brought out their very best. It’s not a coincidence that the Dallas Stars and Toronto Maple Leafs have been able to plug into their lineup young players who quickly reach their potential. Being surrounded by some measure of talent and direction helps enormously.
Those are the very reasons that Crosby had a mutual negotiating partner for a two-year extension last summer; the team understands he creates culture, which provides a stepping stone to growth, and that absence would be a boulder upon the back of prospects getting their first taste of the NHL.
That’s also a strong argument to keep Bryan Rust.
The inverse is an unhappy place. What happens when the unending pain of losing and hopelessness crushes the locker room? That stink sticks to players. It affects them beyond the next game or week, or month. Bad habits emerge, and motivations change.
In bad situations, young players with promise become faded prospects.
If losing meant getting Gavin McKenna, this would be a different discussion. Evgeni Malkin, Rickard Rakell, Erik Karlsson, and Kris Letang would have been given handshakes and suitcases following last season. But not even the most fever-pitched gamblers would push all of their chips into the middle of the table and risk disaster for an 18.5% chance.
Dubas cannot cast the growing pool of prospects that may very well be 20 or 25 deep into the wilderness with only Crosby to lead the way and no guardrails.
Semantics? Perhaps. The narrow path Dubas must walk is maximizing his chances to call McKenna’s name while minimizing his chances to suffer greatly if he doesn’t. Call it whatever you like.
Categorized:Penguins Penguins Analysis
If the difference between tanking and winning were merely semantics then why bother keeping score…in hockey or any other sport?
No one. I like it because it is folksy
I agree that culture matters, and the Penguins are lucky to have Crosby, Malkin, and Letang to maintain that standard. But I’d argue that trading Rust, Rakell, and Karlsson this summer isn’t tanking, it’s smart asset management. If Dubas moves those veterans for picks, under-24 NHLers, and high-upside prospects, yes, the Pens will likely finish in the bottom 8. However, that’s not a failure; it’s a necessary step in a genuine rebuild. And with Crosby still in the room, the culture won’t collapse. It might thrive as younger players learn from one of the greatest leaders in hockey history. The… Read more »
As long as Dubas continues to win trades, I feel like the rebuild won’t be too long. A little lottery luck would be nice but shouldn’t be counted on, for sure.
Who made it a rule that you have to be one of the worst teams in the league in order to get good again? And how are things really going to go in the locker room if the Pens are losing every night? Oh boy, the kids will be starstruck by Sid and get to see him frustrated over the constant losing until he starts to resent their rookie mistakes. What a great culture that will be. The best way to speed up the rebuild (outside of divine intervention giving us another perfectly timed #1 pick) would be for the… Read more »
This Tanking and trade Crosby is getting really stale. Crosby is going no where for a long time and as long as he’s skating with this team, there is no tanking, so take it out of your vocabulary. When he’s finished with his playing career there will be a job for him waiting with the Pens when he’s ready. ESPECIALLY if Mario is back as owner of this franchise, he will then have a significant position.
the mou t Rushmore guy on the team has not led us to the playoffs for 3 straight seasons. Just sayin.
There is no “I” in team
Agree. It is not only stale but annoying. Good comments.
The only responsible thing to do is to go about your business as if you wont get McKenna.
Team still needs a 2C and 2 BIG D men that actually play D.
If 71 is at 2C then Pens will still be a 1 line team.
Malkin’s productivity will be directly impacted by Rust and Rakell. Geno looked so much better when McGroarty and Koivunen came up and he had legitimate top 6 wingers to play with. No, we’re never going to see 2017 vintage Malkin again, but at least what I saw was elite playmaking skills with guys who could finish. He looked rejuvenated and was a better than average 2C. He can’t carry that line by himself, but is very capable of being part of a good second line with solid help on the wings.
That is why we need to get 2 top 6 wingers in the trades. They just need to be 24 and under. Plus the Pens will have Mantha at least until the trade deadline. If he is healthy, he is good.
The last ranked team, or team that tanks best, has a 100% chance of a top 3 pick and 65% odds for a top 2. The risk of not getting #1 is off set by still getting a guaranteed elite pick.. The losing culture piece is important too if a short rebuild is desired but might be overstated for the sake of argument- which good debaters are entitled to do.
Fun Fact: Of the 61 Players Drafted 1st Overall, 18 Have Won the Stanley Cup, 13 of Them With the Franchise That Drafted Them. Players That Won the Cup With the Team That Drafted Them: Rejean Houle (with Montreal in 71, 73, 77, 78 & 79) Guy Lafleur (with Montreal in 73, 76, 77, 78 & 79) Denis Potvin (with NY Islanders in 80, 81, 82 & 83) Mario Lemieux (with Pittsburgh in 91 & 92) Mike Modano (with Dallas in 99) Vincent Lecavalier (with Tampa in 04) Marc-Andre Fleury (with Pittsburgh in 09, 16 & 17) Alex Ovechkin (with… Read more »
Great odds of winning cup with first overall pick especially since 2009
I don’t think it’s a narrow path, because “success” at the lottery doesn’t just mean landing the top pick. There is often a pretty big difference between picking in the top five and at pick 11 as the Pens did this year. It will probably be necessary to pick in the top 5 to get elite players with all the tools. Speaking to what’s likely- teams are more likely to draft close to where they finished in the standings. So it’s not a failure if the pens play out this one season as they should – building assets methodically, not… Read more »
They finished two games below .500 — and that’s not even factoring in the loser points. If they had dropped just three or four more games in regulation, they would’ve ended up with a higher draft pick and possibly a better prospect (Martone/Hagens). So no, full-on tanking isn’t the answer, but being slightly worse than last year might not be a bad thing — especially if it means more meaningful development for their young talent. The prospects they have aren’t difference makers at this point, & who knows they if they ever will be.The team lacks a difference maker in… Read more »
Perhaps, as Penguin fans, we’re simply used to ‘tanking’ and getting a generational player with the first pick. There are other ways to rebuild a roster. Let’s look at keeping a few veterans who know how to be pros and win and will teach that to young guys. Stock up on prospects. This increases the odds of getting solid, maybe even a few stars on the roster. As the new roster grows, the team gets better and gets close to making a run at the Cup. Staying away from high priced free agents gives cap space to bring in 1… Read more »
Actually the odds of getting the 1st overall pick is 25% if you finish 32nd overall. Teams can only advance 10 positions if they win the lottery. Teams 12-16 can win the lottery and not have the #1 pick. Still 25% are not great odds.
That’s a good bit of math. I suppose the NHL should publicize it that way, too. Obviously, I used the NHL numbers.
You need Scott Steiners Math of 33.3rd% lol
create a losing g culture??? Hello??? we’ve missed the playoffs 3 straight seasons. that’s the definition of a losing culture. so yeah let’s keep Bryan rustbecause he can show all these young players how to miss the playoffs.
horrible take and article.
NO young players were played by Sully in this 3 year time frame so YOU have the horrible take, we had to cater to veterans like Jeff Carter and Matt Nieto, castoffs like Jansen Harkins and Cody Glass(even Matthew Phillips!), not young guys like Poulin, Hallender(he had the balls to call Sully out!), Pickering and St. Ivany.
My goodness, that narrative still rings of stubbornness. we’re just going to scrub Tomasino, 25 games for Pickering, running St. Ivany until he forced their hand, 50+ games for Puustinen, putting McGroarty and Koivunen the top six…and on and on… It’s like people came here for years but didn’t read a thing.
Dan, I’m sure you’re familiar with my favorite when someone ignores the facts:
“Please don’t confuse me with the facts; my mind is already made up!”
Sounds appropriate here after watching two neophytes finish the season in the top 6.
Or as apparently must have been the case two old guys stole McGroarty’s and Koivunen’s uniforms and snuck out onto the ice? Who knew?! Obviously not Sully!
Your reply does not refute the facts that he played washed up Carter and Nieto. Also he waited until the end of the year in put McGroarty and Koivunen into the lineup and it was quite obvious their youthful energy invigorated the team. As for Pickering and St. Ivany a few mistakes and they were sent down. Also does not explain the fascination with Harkins(40+ games, 4 points!!!), Glass and Phillips! Sully was the stubborn one, he won his Cups by going with youth(Murray over Fleury, Sheary,, Dumo, Maatta, Scott Wilson, Rust, Kuhnhackl, etc.).
You know there are rules and limits to the active rosters, right?
McGroarty and Koivunen weren’t ready for NHL earlier.
It’s wasn’t Sullivans job to decide roster movement. For all we know he could have asked to get McGroarty and Koivunen to help earlier, but waa denied. He just does what he thinks is best with the guys that are in his disposal. On that we may argue how good of a job he did.
Let’s keep it simple: who plays to lose? NHL players have spent their entire life (probably from 4 or 5 yr old) learning to play hockey and to excel at the highest level. Winning is the manifestation of that drive. The SC and its pursuit is the ultimate realization. ALL NHL teams are filled with players and Staff wired that way (in varying degrees) and, for them, to go against that grain is both unthinkable and unsustainable. If my favorite organization had anybody that was willing to accept a losing mentality, I would hope that they would be gone immediately… Read more »
I would love getting McKenna but even if you do it takes shrewd moves to build around him. No one player wins the cup, even Mario needed help! Tanking just causes fan frustration and they take it out on players who are trying to get better. Besides I like what Dubas is doing with quantity leading to hopefully finding some quality gems!
100% agree. A rotten team around one great player can’t win in this league. McDavid doesn’t have a cup yet and he’s a generational player surrounded by a good team. I like what we’re doing, and what we’re doing is trying to win.
Tanking is for losers. Sid didn’t extend for 2 years to participate in tanking. If he even so much as gets a whiff that KD is trying to tank, he’ll be gone to either the Avs to join his buddy MacKinnon or the Habs his hometown team. Stop the nonsense, nay stupidity.
Not only Sid not wanting to lose, but how about a new coaching staff who want to prove themselves? Frankly, i wouldn’t be surprised if the team wins even more than last season. The roster isn’t even complete yet, but it is slowly inching its way to being a winner already. For me, as long as the team puts in a strong effort and plays organized, smart hockey, i will be fine win or lose, no matter what the draft order ends up being. That part is completely out of their hands anyhow.
It feels like KD isn’t even half done. I like just about everything he has done. Very methodical and consistent. They’ve got a shot to slide into the playoffs if they jettison some of the dead weight that remains then add smartly. Also, the kids will be hungry and want to make a great impression.
Time to trim the tree, Kyle. And 4 all players from the Soo, come live with Tyler or Big Jeff as mentors.
Fantastic article 👏 👍
I don’t really understand the mindset of people rooting for losses. It must be those guys that don’t go to games or watch them on TV. It’s beyond me how one could pay for a ticket, or a subsription, to watch a game where they root against their team. I can’t watch if I’m not rooting for a win. I know we’re going to lose more than a fair share of games this year, but why would I be happy about it? McKenna? I mean, McDavid? What guarantees a cup if you get your hands on the no. 1 pick?… Read more »
Uros, your closing point about the coming sensation, G McKenna is spot on. Solely for sake of argument, assume that Edmonton would trade McDavid to Penguins without impacting our currently projected starting lineup other than McDavid becoming either 1C or 2C and each center sliding down accordingly. Do the Penguins then sweep 🧹 the Stanley Cup finals? No; why not? The point is that the focus on drafting the next Bedard, Celebrini, etc. is no panacea and thus orienting the team’s strategy around the possibility of drafting the next Crosby is a fool’s errand. Will the Penguins go 82-0? No… Read more »
If we’re talking about tanking for McKenna, all that matters is getting the top pick, so the 25% figure is the one that matters, not 18.5%. 71, 59 and 65 all have NMC’s so it would have been up to them to be given handshakes and suitcases at the end of last year. Plus I can’t even make sense of the first sentence in this article. This article misses all around sorry.
Good lord, that first graf was awful. I apologize. I don’t know if my autocorrect changed it after I edited this piece or what happened, but that wasn’t what I wrote and it was a trainwreck. Thank you for calling it out so I could change it.