NHL Inflation Makes a Granlund Buyout Good Deal for Penguins, Here’s Why
The first NHL buyout window occurs 48 hours after the Stanley Cup is awarded, and Pittsburgh Penguins winger Mikael Granlund may be one of the likeliest candidates across the league to receive a paycheck and bad news.
A coming financial windfall for NHL teams makes such an expensive move far more feasible, and current operating conditions give the new president of hockey operations, Kyle Dubas, even more incentive to act.
The NHL salary cap will increase by just $1 million for the 2023-24 NHL season as the players continue to reimburse owners for the salaries paid during the COVID stoppage, which were based on projected revenue the owners never received. Of course, the value of NHL teams is skyrocketing, and the folks at the top of the food chain are seeing record returns on their franchise investments, but that will not matter in the day-to-day finances relating to paying player salaries.
The NHL revenues continue to climb upwards of $6 billion and counting, which means when the NHLPA makes good on its debt, presumably next year, the 2024-25 salary cap will launch faster than a SpaceX Starship.
Conservative estimates place the future salary cap uptick at $3 million. More realistic estimates open the possibility of a $4-5 million hike, putting the salary cap around $89 million, a $6 million increase from current levels.
On the cons list, Granlund had a respectable 41 points last season. Those are not exactly the numbers of a pariah. However, he had just five points, including one goal, in 21 games with the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Granlund’s teammate Corsi — what players did with and without him — is a mishmash of bad news. Jeff Carter’s shot attempt rate increased slightly in his 45 minutes of ice time with Granlund. Danton Heinen’s numbers were unchanged, as was Drew O’Connor’s rate.
Ryan Poehling’s shot attempt rate went up by five points with Granlund, but that could also be a coincidence for getting healthy and being reinserted into the lineup in a more advantageous spot with a little more offensive zone time.
Top Defensemen generally saw small possession fluctuations with Granlund.
However, almost all players saw substantial declines in expected goals-for.
That’s bad news. It means even the maligned Carter had a greater chance of scoring without Granlund than with him, and it means Granlund failed to make the type of positive, meaningful impact expected of a $5 million player.
The numbers show the Penguins’ bottom six was less likely to score with Granlund than with him. For those who followed the team all season, that’s almost an implausible sentence.
Granlund Buyout:
As the Pittsburgh Hockey Now surveyed the hockey landscape during the Fenway Sports Group’s hunt for a Penguins GM or president of hockey operations, the Granlund issue was a discussion topic in hockey circles.
Some hockey executives said they would strongly consider it if they were in the Penguins’ situation. Actually, the language was a little more colorful and sure. If some current hockey execs were in the Penguins’ chair, the buyout would be in process already.
It’s hard to ignore talk like that.
Granlund’s deal runs two more seasons with a $5 million AAV.
According to CapFriendly.com, a buyout looks like this:
2023-24 Cap Hit: $833,333
2024-25 Cap Hit: $1,833,333
2025-26 Cap Hit: $1,833,333
2026-27 Cap Hit: $1,833,333
So, the Penguins would save more than $4 million this season and $3 million next season before getting hit with a $1.8 million penalty for two seasons.
Presuming there are no takers on the NHL trade market, a buyout makes more sense than affixing a prospect or high pick to move Granlund.
Another little-discussed point is that teams are still pressed tight to the salary cap this summer. The paltry $1 million bump offers little relief, which could keep short-term free agent prices lower.
Next summer? Look out. GMs could be spending like sugared-up kids at Disneyworld, committing their parents’ money without a care.
Inflation is coming. I’m sure you’ll try to relate.
It would seem a dollar used in 2023 could buy more than a dollar in 2024. So, this summer could present greater value on the UFA market, making every dollar more impactful.
What could an extra $4 million buy for the Penguins on July 1? Could it lead to re-signing Jason Zucker?
Also, with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang reaching their later 30s soon, NOW is more important than two years from now.
Just as FSG and Dubas have executed a near-clean sweep of Hextall people, perhaps that attitude will extend to the ice. Now is the time. A Mikael Granlund buyout makes sense.
Categorized:Penguins
Even better…money to sign Barbrashev to play with Malkin…I never could understand why management never really signed or traded for a Russian winger to play with him…I mean Fedotenko worked out…
Assuming vegas doesn’t offer him a contract? I am pretty sure they will re-sign him as he is currently on their top line, if i am not mistaken
Vegas very tight against the cap…need to move money..price of winning
Maybe, but they will still have to make tough decisions on their own free agents like every other team. I fully expect the pens to re-sign Zucker right after they buy ou granlund, but you never know…
I still would let Zucker walk. I don’t trust his health and the way he plays (although it’s the way he needs to play). I just don’t.
Don’t bet on it lol. Dubis isn’t as connected with any of the player’s and that’s why I think the Penguins ownership hit a home run with hiring him and I understand he comes with baggage however the positives outweigh the negative’s. Let’s go Pens
Dan, you will see a major changes with Dubas. Dubas is very aggressive and has no problems with Russian players. Like you have seen with Steelers once they brought in a good GM and Weidl, the Steelers Roster changed drastically this year! They have complete control of the Roster and want a Super Bowl instead of happy to have a winning record. Dubas will have the power or the roster. Thank God
I agree 💯%
Wasn’t Fedo Ukrainian?
Tak (ukrainian for yes)!
I’m covering the Cup Final. Barbashev would be a great … GREAT … get.
Two summers ago so would have Montour.
Totally agree with you and Management wasn’t smart enough to think outside the box to try and at least make someone actually feel confident in his game again someone that can bring that game out of him just by being on the same page. Let’s go Penguins
We won’t recognize this team by the time Duby gets done with it this off-season. And that’s the way it should be. Remember, this is the guy who traded a late first-round pick to Carolina so they would take a washed-up Marleau off his hands. I count as many as a dozen regulars and semi-regulars who won’t be back next season. This is gonna be a fun summer, people.
Amen, thank God! Remember that he has a major chip on his shoulder because of Leafs deal. He knows how bad the Penguin’s fell. He wants to win this division 1st. This Roster will change. I’d watch for maybe a couple certain Free Agents brought in Watch changes also at WBS. His people coming in. Watch Spezza, Metcalf among 1st group.
He’s really close I heard to Ryan Hardy and Wes Clark too. I could see up to 6/7 Maple Leaf employees coming to help him with Pens and WBS
Expect Spezza or Clark to be his right-hand man as GM in name only. The TMLHC had plans for Spezza as their interim GM, which prompted him to resign instead.
I hope so!
I feel bad for Granlund. He got to play with the riff raff on the 3rd line. Of course his numbers would be bad! Its not his fault he has a bad contract and Hextall was dumb enough to trade for him to fill a role he would not be good at. I hope they do buy him out and he goes on to have a solid career from there!
Great strategy! Has anyone asked Mario & Burkle what hey saw in Hextall & Burke? This is the key, what were they thinking???
Interesting question but no longer relevant.
Jeff understand not relevant now, just bugs me Mario no longer affiliated with club.
Yep, for sure. Although I’m happy he got whatever he did for the team. Fewer people deserve whatever he got for all he did for the franchise. And if he wants to minimize his involvement and that makes him happy, who am i to want otherwise?
(My first memory of hockey was seeing him play on a black and white TV in my room as a youngster (me, not him). I was hooked. CBC carried the game and I still remember Racicot Chrysler doing the commercial every week that led into the broadcast.)
Could have something to do with being embarrassed for the horrible hire.
Granlund….small and non-physical with average speed, below average shot, and above average passing/playmaking. Fits right in with the Pens’ perimeter offense emphasizing too many passes!
Amen
It’s a shame the O’Connor Heinen and Poehling line didn’t stick because of Poehling going down again. They clicked right away and we’re scoring and very noticeable when on the ice.Even Heinen.
So for 327 minutes of Granlund we pay a 2nd and 4 years of dead cap space. Thanks Ron.
I’m still pissed about some of the things and just cocky comments that Brian Burke made about Kyle Dubas recently LMAO, coming from a guy who just helped put the penguins in the toilet over the very little time they were there? Which tells me Kyle Dubis is the right man for the job. Let’s go Penguins