Yeah, Penguins Could Win NHL Draft Lottery, But …

Pittsburgh Penguins Jordan Staal: Photo by Michael Miller

The Pittsburgh Penguins did something this spring they hadn’t done since 2006: They failed to qualify for the Stanley Cup playoffs.

As a result, they’ll do something else they haven’t done in 17 years: Participate in an NHL draft lottery.

It’s scheduled for shortly after 8 p.m. Monday, and will settle precisely where the Penguins — and 15 other clubs — will select in the opening round of the NHL Draft June 28 in Nashville.

The Penguins enter the lottery in 14th place in the draft order, which is based on points earned during the regular season.

They have a 1.5 percent chance of winning the lottery, but because teams can move up no more than 10 spots in the draft order, would only select fourth, even if they do.

That means that even defying the overwhelming odds stacked against them would not be enough to get the Penguins the rights to Regina Pats center Connor Bedard, the most celebrated prospect available since Edmonton claimed Connor McDavid with the top choice in 2015.

Anaheim, which finished at the bottom of the overall standings in 2022-23, has the best chance of ending up with the No. 1 pick, 25.5 percent.

This year, for the first time, there will be a second drawing to determine which team will select No. 2 overall. The Penguins will not be eligible for that because of the rule limiting clubs to jumping 10 spots.

The last time the Penguins participated in a lottery, St. Louis retained the top choice and ultimately spent it on defenseman Erik Johnson.

The Penguins, picking second, selected Jordan Staal. Chicago (Jonathan Toews), Washington (Nicklas Backstrom) and Boston (Phil Kessel) followed.

They got Staal one year after recording one of the biggest victories in lottery — and franchise — history.

The NHL, coming off a 2004-05 season that had been wiped out by a lockout, used a weighted lottery to determine the order in which the league’s 30 teams would select during the opening round in 2005.

The Pittsburgh Penguins had a 3-in-48 chance — that’s 6.3 percent — of winning that lottery, tying Buffalo, Columbus and the New York Rangers for the most favorable odds.

However unlikely it seemed, the ping-pong balls bounced in their favor, and the Penguins ended up with the top choice, which they invested in Sidney Crosby.

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D Heyl
D Heyl
2 years ago

I wonder if FSG knows the fired GM brought mostly his people in for scouting & draft prep. Where do u think their loyalty is right now. What a disaster!!!

Stanley Kupp
Stanley Kupp
2 years ago
Reply to  D Heyl

Maybe with the people who pay them.

Jon Stowitzky
Jon Stowitzky
2 years ago
Reply to  D Heyl

Hextalls kid is director of player personnel. 😂

Gary Kern
Gary Kern
2 years ago
Reply to  Jon Stowitzky

Not true

Flori
Flori
2 years ago

i don’t want jordan stall anywhere near…

Rob
Rob
2 years ago
Reply to  Flori

I read years ago The reason Staal left the Pens was because he felt he deserved to be more than just being a 3rd center behind Sid and Geno and knew he couldn’t be anything more that in the Burg.

Nathan
Nathan
2 years ago
Reply to  Rob

Yes, and he wanted to play with his brother as well. Makes you wonder if he regretted that decision. His success in Carolina would suggest yes.

Jeff Young
Jeff Young
2 years ago

…they’d still miss the playoffs.

Rich Filardi
Rich Filardi
2 years ago

This a deep draft, if they happen to get 4 or 5, they have a potential top 3 forward and at 14, they would be getting a potential top 6 guy. Who knows who might slide. NHL is a hard one to predict since your dealing with 18 yr olds, basically high school srs.

Last edited 2 years ago by Rich Filardi
Nick P
Nick P
2 years ago

So us being in the draft with outstanding odds of success during the 2020 COVID Cup doesn’t count as us qualifying for the draft? 17 years is a bit of a stretch by my numbers.