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Evgeni Malkin Value: Comparables, Performance, and Replacement Cost

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Pittsburgh Penguins, Evgeni Malkin

So, what exactly is Evgeni Malkin worth to the free-agent market or the Pittsburgh Penguins?

That is the question that agent, player, and organization have been trying to figure out since last summer. Now just three weeks and a few days from the free-agent frenzy, the clock is ticking loudly. Answers will be forthcoming, but perhaps not until the entirety of those three weeks expires.

Evgeni Malkin’s career resume has few equals. Not only has he won the Art Ross Trophy twice, but the Hart Trophy and Conn Smythe. When his career is over, he’ll likely finish as the second-highest scoring Russian player of all time, ahead of Hall of Famer Sergei Federov but behind Alex Ovechkin.

There’s no other active Russian player within 600 points.

When healthy, Malkin’s recent production has been exemplary, too. This season, Malkin hit the 20-goal mark for the 13th time and scored 42 points in 41 games.

Last season, he slipped to 28 points in 34 games, but the season before, he put the Pittsburgh Penguins on his shoulders and carried them while Sidney Crosby recovered from core muscle surgery. In 2019-20, Malkin soared to 74 points in 55 games.

However, in that 2019-20 season lies the microcosm of the risks and rewards of re-signing Malkin. He carried the team and garnered Hart Trophy consideration and votes but also wore down late in the season and was injured. He played just 55 of the 69 games before COVID wrecked the season.

Malkin was injured in 2020-21 and played just 34 of the 56 games. In addition to recovering from an injury, he also suffered a severe knee injury later last season, which required major surgery in June.

And of course, he was out until Jan. 11 this season.

Malkin poured in the points, but he wasn’t necessarily effective until later in the season.

In the last seven seasons, Malkin has played more than 80% of the games twice and only thrice in the last nine years.

In other words, expect Malkin to play no more than 68 games in subsequent seasons if he and the Penguins settle on an agreeable number. Given the severity of Malkin’s knee injury in March 2021 and the surgery, the risks of a catastrophic injury would seem to be increased, too.

So, what is a soon-to-be 36-year-old center who can score a point per game but is expected to miss at least 15-20 games each season? The list of comparables is small. There aren’t many players like Malkin, and fewer hit free agency.

Perhaps the best method is to look at other centers in the same age bracket with similar production and compare salaries, regardless of when the center signed.

Anze Kopitar, then 28, signed an eight-year, $80 million contract in 2016.

Nick Backstrom, then 32, signed for five years and $46 million with the Washington Capitals.

Logan Couture, then 30, signed an eight-year, $64 million contract with San Jose in 2019.

The comparables take the players to 36, 37, and 38, respectively. They also carry $10 million, $9 million, and $8 million cap hits.

Working backward, GMs were willing to pay centers at Malkin’s age between $8 and $10 million.

The first comparable free agent would be Joe Pavelski.

Pavelski was a fine player but not in Malkin’s stratosphere in San Jose. After three successive 60-plus point seasons, Pavelski signed a three-year, $21 million contract with the Dallas Stars in 2019.

So, we can point to a market range of $7-$9 million after removing Kopitar’s deal that expires at age 36.

That’s the financial market, now the on ice…

Evgeni Malkin On-Ice Value

Points are nice, but they’re not exactly the story. If a baseball player hits 50 home runs but strikes out more than anyone else and leaves more runners stranded, what do the home runs mean in context?

Similarly, goals and points can be a slightly flawed metric on which to base a contract.

How does the player affect the team game, momentum, and that pesky stat–goals against.

Despite 42 points in 41 games, Malkin was a minus-10 this season. In the last four seasons, Malkin is a minus-32 combined, including his disastrous gong show campaign with Phil Kessel in 2018-19, in which he was a minus-25. Last season, Malkin was a minus-4.

Boiled down, Malkin is getting a goodly number of points on the power play, but at 5v5, the other team is scoring more.

He’s a damning statistic: when Malkin’s line was on the ice this season, the goalies had just an .896 save percentage.

Conversely, when Jeff Carter was on the ice, the Penguins goalies stopped .902.

Worse, Malkin had a 61% Corsi, meaning his line had the puck but still yielded many goals against. Malkin’s line is giving up Grade A scoring chances and lots of ’em.

Over an 82-game season, Malkin was on pace for about 44 even-strength points and 40 power-play points. He was on the ice for 23 even-strength goals for and 29 against, according to Natural Stat Trick.com.

Evgeni Malkin Replacement Cost

Let’s examine the projected 44 even-strength points. Over 82 games, Malkin would have been on the ice for 46 even-strength goals and 58 goals-against.

Vincent Trocheck had 39 even-strength points (15-24-39), so now we’re getting somewhere.

Trocheck was also a plus +21. He was on the ice for 48 goals-for–two more than we projected for Malkin, but only 29 goals against, half of what we projected for Malkin.

Yet Trocheck scored only 51 points in 81 games, whereas Malkin popped 42 points in just 41 games. So, don’t rely strictly on points. Trocheck’s value and benefit to his team were statistically greater than Malkin’s.

(We’re using Trocheck as a reference point because he could be the most highly sought center on the UFA market if the Colorado Avalanche can re-sign Nazem Kadri). 

Ryan Strome would also rank ahead of Malkin and possibly cost less than $7 million.

Nor have Trocheck and Strome been hindered by injuries. One would expect them to play more than 80% of the games over the life of a new contract.

Other UFAs like Paul Statsny and Andrew Copp would mathematically improve upon Malkin’s performance, but probably not with the same second-line responsibilities.

So, what is Evgeni Malkin worth? We can estimate the replacement cost at about $7 million, which would improve the Pittsburgh Penguins. So, based on replacement cost, which could improve the Penguins, Malkin’s value is less than $7 million.

Perhaps $6 million?