Penguins One-Timers: Biggest Thing Dubas Must Change
If you look at the history of the Pittsburgh Penguins drafts of the past 10 years, many players made their NHL debuts or spent their careers elsewhere. Such travels are expected for many prospects on elite teams because they reach their potential only to find that their team has greater talent already on the NHL roster or that they are more valuable as a trade chip.
However, the Penguins’ recent draft history has zeroes. Lots and lots of zeroes.
The last time the Penguins drafted a player who made it to the NHL was 2019. First-round pick Sam Poulin has played a total of six NHL games and does not figure to be a strong contender to increase that total this season, at least with the Penguins. Valtteri Puustinen was the 2019 seventh-round pick and has played 53 games, 50 of which were last season.
And no, it’s not because coach Mike Sullivan hates young players (but I could hear your keyboards already typing that).
No, the reason for the absence of successful prospects is quite simple. It’s not bad luck or any conspiracy theory; it is the immutable fact that the Penguins have drafted terribly.
Only three players from the 2019 first round have played fewer games than Poulin. 2020 second-round pick Joel Blomqvist holds some promise, but it appears if he’s able to make his NHL debut this season, it will be as an injury replacement. Four of the six players drafted immediately after 20202 third-round pick Calle Clang have played more than 10 NHL games.
Read more: Joel Blomqvist Scouting Report (+)
Meanwhile, 2021 second-round pick Tristan Broz is finally in the Penguins’ fold and is showing some promise. Still, three players selected in the next nine picks at the back of the second round have already made their debut, and J.J. Moser selected two picks later, has played in 162 games over the past two seasons for the Arizona/Utah club.
2022 first-rounder Owen Pickering could make his NHL debut this season or next, but numerous players selected behind him have surpassed him in prospect rankings.
Broz and Pickering represent some hope for the Penguins’ future and very well could become NHL players within the next 18 months. Broz appears to be a late bloomer who nearly lost his lineup spot at the University of Denver before exploding in the second half and becoming an integral cog in Denver’s national championship.
Pickering, 20, might still be growing. His upside appears to be as a stay-at-home second—or third-pair defenseman in the Marcus Pettersson mold. That’s not bad, but the Penguins passed on more dynamic players who are poised to make bigger contributions.
The Penguins’ draft malaise isn’t attributable to one person or even one management regime. The end of the Jim Rutherford era overlapped with the beginning of the Ron Hextall era.
The Penguins’ top pick in 2018 was Calen Addison, who, at 24 years old and having played 253 NHL games with Minnesota and San Jose, looks like he’s headed for a career in the AHL. No players from the 2017 draft class played in the NHL. And in 2016, the Penguins top pick was second-rounder Filip Gustavsson, who is a backup in danger of being banished to the hinterlands of minor league hockey.
The last time the Penguins drafted an impact player who played in the top league for them or anyone else was in 2015 when the team selected now-journeyman Daniel Sprong.
The failures can’t all be blamed on Hextall and his band of closed-door marauders. Nor can we solely blame Nick Pryor, who survived the Hextall regime to work two drafts with the current president of hockey operations/GM Kyle Dubas.
The barren pipeline hasn’t only resulted from the lack of prime first-round picks. No, it has also been a long series of bad drafts.
2023 first-round pick Brayden Yager did not impress PHN during in-person scouting trips, nor did he impress other amateur scouting services. Elite Prospects dropped his rank to 85th in their top 100 despite being the 14th overall pick. The Penguins traded him for Rutger McGroarty last week.
Several Penguins prospects currently have a chance to become productive NHL players, including Pickering, Broz, Blomqvist, and 2022 fourth-rounder Sergei Murashov.
Yet only Murashov has the potential to be a star player. Such is the challenge of rebuilding; filling the bottom of the lineup is much easier than finding players who can be impactful at the top.
If there’s one thing Dubas must fix if he’s to have any chance of success, it’s drafting and player development. It would appear he took a big first step in July when he pirated Wes Clark from the Toronto Maple Leafs as the Penguins’ new vice president of player personnel.
You Didn’t Ask, But…
I think Patrik Laine will score 30 goals this season. The fizzy excitement building in Montreal, combined with understanding a rebuild, will create a supportive and electric atmosphere similar to that of the 2006 Penguins (who made the playoffs). He seems anxious to resume his career.
Young players will be paramount this season. The compressed schedule doesn’t have many awkward breaks like last season. The Four Nations Face-Off in February will be fun, but it created some compact road trips. It’s conceivable the Penguins have a great start but wear down in the home stretch, especially because Sidney Crosby will lead Team Canada in February. It’s going to be a lot of hockey for the Penguins’ star players.
I think Penguins fans are underestimating Rickard Rakell. It’s funny how one bad season or one bad half can change perception. Over the final 52 games last season, Rakell was perfectly “normal” and produced at career norms. His playmaking ability and slick work might be useful for the power play, too.
The Penguins’ roster glut continues to confuse me. Could Dubas create the highest-paid team in the AHL by dunking some of the veterans in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton? It would go against convention, but it would align with his goal for young players in the lineup while Crosby is still here.
After the McGroarty trade, it also feels like there is another Penguins shoe waiting to drop. What am I missing on Lars Eller? It would seem a rival team would have snapped him up.
I feel for Poulin. He really should get a crack at the NHL, but the path is clearly blocked again. Last season’s cup of coffee, in which he was invisible, may have been his moment that sadly came and went.
Teflon Mike had no use for McCann and Matheson, both in their mid-20s at the time they “escaped” his doghouse. Wouldn’t KD love to have those 2 on the Pens roster right now?
I’m not sure you’re correctly remembering McCann and Matheson’s usage. Both were well used, and to say Hextall and Sullivan were on the same page would be incorrect.
Mr. K, here are the facts on usage:
Matheson PIT Avg TOI = 18:42 mins
Matheson MTL Avg TOI = 25.00 mins
McCann PIT Avg TOI = 14:42 mins
McCann SEA Avg TOI = 16:42 mins
Last year, Sid had 10 PPG, McCann had 9 PPG, Geno had 6 PPG. Next highest on Pens was 4 PPG.
As best I can tell, Teflon Mike makes all calls on TOI and PP staffing, not SexyHexy. Teflon Mike ownsthe under-utilization and subsequent losses of these 2 younger players.
KD would LOVE to have both those players on his roster.
Hardly fair comparisons. I get it, you have to prove a point, but I’m trying to tell you both players were valued by the coaching staff. They tried McCann at several spots. In Pittsburgh he was better as a third liner. They tried him beside Crosby. Beside Malkin. That’s pretty good usage.
I don’t feel any need to “prove a point”. I simply study the data and draw a reasonable conclusion.
As for “being valued by the coaching staff”, there’s words, and then there’s actions. The MTL captain and best D-man is Matheson. SEA’s top scorer is McCann. And McCann seems to be an asset on the PP for them. Other than that, I guess I’ve got nothing.
That’s because if Seattle had either Sid or Geno McCann would not be there top scorer. McCann is a “good” player but not a fit for either Sid or Geno and you knew that. Also McCann has no pressure on him cause nobody expects the Kraken to anything more than a maybe team.
Only your logic can dismiss a LW who has put up 96 goals over the past 3 years and regularly scores on the PP. Compare those 96 goals to any other FWD on the Pens not named Crosby or Malkin or Guentzel. Watcha got? Yeah, I thought so. Rust has put up 72 over the 3 years. He’s the closest, and he gets more ice time than McCanngets with SEA. Do your homework!
McCann is good but not at level of a Rust or Rakell. I stand by what I said. Jared has no pressure on him and is able to score as much as he has because of that why can’t you see that?
Exactly.
Sully was handed a gift and won. He is NOT a good evaluator of talent and he is horrible at using players and getting them ready to play. And he absolutely will not hold 71accountable any more. What happened to “shut the f#$% up!”?
McCann got a fair shot but just didn’t find a lineup home. Matheson was a mistake — should not have traded him, he would have continued to be a better fit than EK has been.
The biggest thing that KD must change is the head coach.
Fire Sully!
Dubas said he’s not worried if players put on waivers to go the the AHL get claimed by another team. Of the players who would pass through waivers, which ones do you think might get claimed?
Dubas has blocked the youth movement with mediocre nhl players (feels like he took a page from the pirates competition). A few good trades now before/during training camp. Team depth needs are, grit defensively to tighten up the voids the fans see in this roster. View is on defense get to Graves and beyond, bottom six defensive forwards you turn your view to the Goalies in desperation seeing possibility of .880sv% & +3.00 gaa this season no sugar coating it.
What he did was make sure that the younger players take the spot by earning it. Let’s face it, if players like poulin and ponomarev can’t play better than the vets in front of them, then they don’t deserve a spot on the roster. Dubas will make the necessary roster moves to free up space for the younger guys if he needs to. That’s how every job works. Would you like it if in your job you were let go to be replaced just because someone was younger than you?
Come on Robert you and I both know that Centralia is not going to give you the right answer so why bother asking that question?
I like where Dubas is heading. We finally have a GM that is building a team with grit, and some size. These are important values, bigger guys just don’t take the punishment in the course of a season and playoffs like smaller guys. It will also be a nice change, to see the Pens be bullies. (wishful thinking) Getting guys like McGroarty, Bunting, Lizotte, Howe …this guys are more in the Patric Hornqvist mold than say a Patrik Laine. At first I was upset Dubas didn’t get Laine, but more I thought about it, and seeing more of the bigger… Read more »