Penguins One-Timers: Biggest Thing Dubas Must Change

If you look at the history of the Pittsburgh Penguins drafts of the past 10 years, many players made their NHL debuts or spent their careers elsewhere. Such travels are expected for many prospects on elite teams because they reach their potential only to find that their team has greater talent already on the NHL roster or that they are more valuable as a trade chip.

However, the Penguins’ recent draft history has zeroes. Lots and lots of zeroes.

The last time the Penguins drafted a player who made it to the NHL was 2019. First-round pick Sam Poulin has played a total of six NHL games and does not figure to be a strong contender to increase that total this season, at least with the Penguins. Valtteri Puustinen was the 2019 seventh-round pick and has played 53 games, 50 of which were last season.

And no, it’s not because coach Mike Sullivan hates young players (but I could hear your keyboards already typing that).

No, the reason for the absence of successful prospects is quite simple. It’s not bad luck or any conspiracy theory; it is the immutable fact that the Penguins have drafted terribly.

Only three players from the 2019 first round have played fewer games than Poulin. 2020 second-round pick Joel Blomqvist holds some promise, but it appears if he’s able to make his NHL debut this season, it will be as an injury replacement. Four of the six players drafted immediately after 20202 third-round pick Calle Clang have played more than 10 NHL games.

Read more: Joel Blomqvist Scouting Report (+)

Meanwhile, 2021 second-round pick Tristan Broz is finally in the Penguins’ fold and is showing some promise. Still, three players selected in the next nine picks at the back of the second round have already made their debut, and J.J. Moser selected two picks later, has played in 162 games over the past two seasons for the Arizona/Utah club.

2022 first-rounder Owen Pickering could make his NHL debut this season or next, but numerous players selected behind him have surpassed him in prospect rankings.

Broz and Pickering represent some hope for the Penguins’ future and very well could become NHL players within the next 18 months. Broz appears to be a late bloomer who nearly lost his lineup spot at the University of Denver before exploding in the second half and becoming an integral cog in Denver’s national championship.

Pickering, 20, might still be growing. His upside appears to be as a stay-at-home second—or third-pair defenseman in the Marcus Pettersson mold. That’s not bad, but the Penguins passed on more dynamic players who are poised to make bigger contributions.

The Penguins’ draft malaise isn’t attributable to one person or even one management regime. The end of the Jim Rutherford era overlapped with the beginning of the Ron Hextall era.

The Penguins’ top pick in 2018 was Calen Addison, who, at 24 years old and having played 253 NHL games with Minnesota and San Jose, looks like he’s headed for a career in the AHL. No players from the 2017 draft class played in the NHL. And in 2016, the Penguins top pick was second-rounder Filip Gustavsson, who is a backup in danger of being banished to the hinterlands of minor league hockey.

The last time the Penguins drafted an impact player who played in the top league for them or anyone else was in 2015 when the team selected now-journeyman Daniel Sprong.

The failures can’t all be blamed on Hextall and his band of closed-door marauders. Nor can we solely blame Nick Pryor, who survived the Hextall regime to work two drafts with the current president of hockey operations/GM Kyle Dubas.

The barren pipeline hasn’t only resulted from the lack of prime first-round picks. No, it has also been a long series of bad drafts.

2023 first-round pick Brayden Yager did not impress PHN during in-person scouting trips, nor did he impress other amateur scouting services. Elite Prospects dropped his rank to 85th in their top 100 despite being the 14th overall pick. The Penguins traded him for Rutger McGroarty last week.

Several Penguins prospects currently have a chance to become productive NHL players, including Pickering, Broz, Blomqvist, and 2022 fourth-rounder Sergei Murashov.

Yet only Murashov has the potential to be a star player. Such is the challenge of rebuilding; filling the bottom of the lineup is much easier than finding players who can be impactful at the top.

If there’s one thing Dubas must fix if he’s to have any chance of success, it’s drafting and player development. It would appear he took a big first step in July when he pirated Wes Clark from the Toronto Maple Leafs as the Penguins’ new vice president of player personnel.

You Didn’t Ask, But…

I think Patrik Laine will score 30 goals this season. The fizzy excitement building in Montreal, combined with understanding a rebuild, will create a supportive and electric atmosphere similar to that of the 2006 Penguins (who made the playoffs). He seems anxious to resume his career.

Young players will be paramount this season. The compressed schedule doesn’t have many awkward breaks like last season. The Four Nations Face-Off in February will be fun, but it created some compact road trips. It’s conceivable the Penguins have a great start but wear down in the home stretch, especially because Sidney Crosby will lead Team Canada in February. It’s going to be a lot of hockey for the Penguins’ star players.

I think Penguins fans are underestimating Rickard Rakell. It’s funny how one bad season or one bad half can change perception. Over the final 52 games last season, Rakell was perfectly “normal” and produced at career norms. His playmaking ability and slick work might be useful for the power play, too.

The Penguins’ roster glut continues to confuse me. Could Dubas create the highest-paid team in the AHL by dunking some of the veterans in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton? It would go against convention, but it would align with his goal for young players in the lineup while Crosby is still here.

After the McGroarty trade, it also feels like there is another Penguins shoe waiting to drop. What am I missing on Lars Eller? It would seem a rival team would have snapped him up.

I feel for Poulin. He really should get a crack at the NHL, but the path is clearly blocked again. Last season’s cup of coffee, in which he was invisible, may have been his moment that sadly came and went.