Penguins One-Timers: Dubas Path Not Taken; Which Prospect Arrives First?

Like Taylor Swift concert tickets, the bumper crop of centers and top-six wingers that hit the NHL free agent market on July 1 were gone shortly after they went up for sale and quickly became the Pittsburgh Penguins path not taken.

The Penguins’ most expensive offseason get–to this point–has been Kevin Hayes. Penguins president of hockey operations/GM Kyle Dubas publicly thanked the Fenway Sports Group ownership for being able to swing the deal with the St. Louis Blues, providing him the budget to essentially buy St. Louis’s 2025 second-round pick by accepting Hayes’s $3.571 salary cap hit for two seasons.

(Hayes’s actual salary is $5.25 million for the next two seasons, with 50% retention by the Philadelphia Flyers, per Puckpedia.com).

With one outlier, Hayes has been a 30-40-point center for the last handful of years. The Penguins’ top six remained undisturbed, except for trading Reilly Smith for a 2027 second-round pick and swallowing $1.25 million with it.

Dubas has executed his plan to acquire draft picks while maintaining a competitive NHL roster about as well as it could be done.

However, has he executed the plan to the fullest to fortify the current lineup?

Most of the free-agent centers also had an LW designation, meaning they wouldn’t necessarily be “Evgeni Malkin replacements” if Dubas had moved to sign one of them.

A couple of the centers signed for well more than expected. The Seattle Kraken overpaid Chandler Stephenson, giving the 30-year-old a contract with a $6.25 million average annual value for seven years. Sean Monohan bellied up to the bar for a five-year deal from the Columbus Blue Jackets with a $5.5 million AAV.

Both of those deals were appropriately hard passes for most teams.

However, Elias Lindholm signed for seven years in Boston at an appropriate $7.75 million per season. Matt Duchene gave Dallas a big discount, re-signing after free agency began for one year and only $3 million.

Tuevo Teravainen, who is 29 years old and reliably a 50-60 point forward, signed a three-year deal with Chicago with a $5.4 million AAV.

We can’t know if Dubas put forth offers for any of the bargains. Still, we can theorize that if a player like Teravainen received a similar offer from the Penguins rather than the rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks, it would have been attractive. We also believe Duchene to be worth significantly more than $3 million.

Should the Penguins’ NHL lineup collapse, such players, Lindholm excluded, would have been sellable assets within the next year or two. Those players would have also added significant juice to the current lineup, perhaps pushing the Penguins ahead of the greatly improved Washington Capitals and improving Philadelphia Flyers and much closer to a playoff spot- without sacrificing any assets to do so.

That last line is the important part. Dubas is acquiring future assets, but the free agents don’t require assets to acquire. In this case, it would have meant forgoing the second-rounder gained in the Hayes deal, and that’s all.

Hayes and Penguins free agent acquisition Anthony Beauvillier will combine for just under $4.8 million this season. Dubas was clear that squeaking into the playoffs held no value for him but admitted it would for the players and coach.

Duchene, Teravainen, and others in that price range — that’s the path not taken. How valuable is that second-rounder from St. Louis because its cost was more than just acquiring Hayes?

First Penguins Prospect to Stick in the NHL?

Like a good Saturday night at the dirt track, we’ll separate the players into classes: Prospects over 20 and prospects under 20.

For the Under 20 division, the top contender is Brayden Yager. The 2023 first-round pick is a responsible center who piled up the points with Moose Jaw of the WHL and was the 14th overall selection.

Read More: Scouting Brayden Yager in Person, What Penguins Have on the Way

If he doesn’t play in the NHL by mid-next season, it’s a bit of a disappointment.

However, we’re calling the upset. Tanner Howe, the 2024 second-rounder (46th overall), is a gnatty winger with hands and courage to play around the net. He was invited to the Team Canada Summer Showcase in Ottawa, which runs this week through the next, and he’ll get a good look to make the Team Canada World Juniors team.

That’s pretty good for a kid in a sea of first-round picks like Yager. Howe has the intangibles and might have an easier path to the big show because he’s a winger, and Yager is in line behind a plethora of centers. Yager might get a nine-game tryout this season, but we don’t count that as sticking.

We like the unique qualities that Howe brings.

For the older prospects, it’s probably an easy call: Vasily Ponomarev.

The 22-year-old was part of the Penguins’ trade haul when the team dealt Jake Guentzel to the Carolina Hurricanes. Ponomarev made his NHL debut last season, playing two games for Carolina, scoring one goal and earning one assist.

He could be the perfect complement to Blake Lizotte and Noel Acciari on the fourth line or join Hayes and Valtteri Puustinen on the third line. Ponomarev has an urgency in his game that should play well with coach Mike Sullivan.

The other over-20 prospect that could stick in the show sooner than later might surprise you. Our pick isn’t Sam Poulin but Tristan Broz, who turned after winning the national championship with Denver last season.