About to Get Real: Why September, October Could Determine Penguins Fate

Like golden bookends, it will be with no small irony the Pittsburgh Penguins will begin their 2024-25 season in the very same outposts where their 2023-24 season collapsed. The trips might not only put this season in the balance but the direction of the organization, too.

The spots where the last season hit the rocks–Toronto, Calgary, and Edmonton–are first up this season.

Last season, the first alarm to blare like a rural fire whistle was the Penguins’ utter collapse against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Hockey Night in Canada on Dec. 16. The Penguins lost 7-0, and some cracks in the locker room appeared when a few new players didn’t mind criticizing unnamed players and the team for failing to give maximum effort.

Read More: Penguins Grades: Internal Frustration, Something is Deeply Wrong

The Penguins traded sideways for the next several months. Despite warnings and deadlines from president of hockey operations/GM Kyle Dubas, nothing shook the team from their maddeningly inconsistent ways. Losing leads, poor efforts, and a power play that generously gifted back momentum and goals to opponents with futile performances were running themes.

It came to a head on the Penguins’ Western Canada swing in late February and early March. With a decision to trade Jake Guentzel hanging in the balance, the team had a resounding win over Vancouver but then suffered a shutout in Seattle, blew a third-period lead in a loss to the Calgary Flames, and salted their fate by getting stomped by the Edmonton Oilers, 6-1.

Several days later, Dubas traded Guentzel to the Carolina Hurricanes.

This season, that same gauntlet awaits in October, and it could very well determine the fate of the 2024-25 Penguins. September and October appear to be the most critical months of this Penguins team and could have significant ramifications upon several big-name players, too.

No pressure, eh?

Perhaps for the first time in franchise history, September is going to be vitally important. Coach Mike Sullivan and Dubas will face complex roster decisions. While individually, each of those decisions will involve players who are far from being franchise cornerstones, they will be decisions in which the team could lose players for nothing as they pass through waivers.

Sam Poulin, Valtteri Puustinen, Cody Glass, and even new free agent signing Anthony Beauvillier aren’t safe. Getting the best team on the ice will be important, as there might be no redos.

Pittsburgh Hockey Now has examined the Penguins’ roster situation from several angles. There are 19 players (and more who are coming to training camp hoping to be considered part of that group) for 13 or 14 forward spots. When chalkboard’ing the situation, some loss is inevitable, and some players will be blocked.

Read More: Penguins Decisions: Exploring Crazy Number of Line Combos, Strategies

The bubble players will need to make September and October their best months, or they may not have a chance in November. The same goes for the team.

Make no mistake, Dubas is remaking the Penguins roster in a younger, hungrier way. On a parallel track to the veteran core, Dubas is swapping veterans and salary cap space for draft picks and looking for young players. The guillotine is hanging above the team–if they’re not successful, there’s no reason for Dubas to keep them together.

No-trade and no-movement clauses complicate the process, but players aren’t fools. If this iteration of the Pittsburgh Penguins is not successful early in the season and they find themselves outside the playoff chase by Thanksgiving –that line of demarcation when about 75% of teams in a playoff spot eventually make the playoffs–then the only sane course of action will be to deepen the cuts and trade more veterans.

Few players stay where they’re not wanted or needed; the no-trade clauses become collaborative efforts as the player gets a say in his destination, blocking undesirable spots.

The team will play 12 games in October, including through Toronto on the first road trip, then another Western Canada swing. In very significant and career-altering ways, the next two months could well define the Penguins’ 2024-25 season.

Even Sullivan could find his seat a little toasty.

It’s about to get real very quickly. In the words of color analyst extraordinaire Phil Bourque, buckle up.