Penguins One Timers: Karlsson Trade Must Involve Petry, Pens Still Oldest
The never-ending Pittsburgh Penguins offseason still has two months to burn before the percolating influx of players to Cranberry begins. The Penguins trade chatter surrounding Erik Karlsson is two weeks old, yet it feels like a lifetime ago the Penguins imploded against the worst teams in the league, missed the playoffs, cleaned house at the management level, and hired Kyle Dubas as the president of hockey operations.
I can share a tidbit about the Hockey Now network digging into the Karlsson trade rumors and why there has not been a credible report on the offers or asking price.
A good source responded to one of our network writers yesterday, “No fly zone.”
There was more to the text, but you get the idea. The principals in the matter have ordered an information lockdown.
1. Any Penguins trade for Karlsson must necessarily involve Jeff Petry
Dubas called Petry a “major part” of the Penguins next season, but there isn’t a plausible way Dubas could acquire another right-side defenseman and coach Mike Sullivan find enough ice time to justify Petry’s $6.25 million salary.
Further, with Karlsson and Kris Letang taking the top two pairings, Petry would be shoved into a limited but demanding role. He would be tasked with becoming a penalty-killing, shutdown defenseman who starts most shifts in the defensive zone.
That seems like casting w0rse than a Lifetime movie.
For salary cap reasons and to make room for Karlsson, it seems Petry must be part of the deal.
2. The Penguins remain the oldest
The gap between the oldest and second oldest has grown significantly since the end of last season. The Penguins remain the oldest team in the league, but the gap has grown from a small fraction to nearly a couple of years.
According to CapFriendly, the Penguins’ average age is 31.1. The Washington Capitals remain the second oldest team, but the difference is 1.5 years.
However, for everyone who insists the Penguins need to get younger, the reply is, “How?”
Free agents are older. The players must generally reach about 27 years old before becoming a UFA unless they are not tendered a qualifying offer by their team. The Penguins did well to get Ryan Graves as the new stay-home left-side defender with enough size to defend the net, but his age (27) was irrelevant to getting the best available.
Teams aren’t exactly lining up to give away young talent on the trade market, either.
This season doesn’t look good for a Penguins youth movement, but in two years, things should begin to turn around as first-round picks Owen Pickering and Brayden Yager enter the picture. Perhaps a few of those diamonds in the rough, such as Luke Devlin. will emerge, as well.
Based on current projected lineups, these teams have the oldest average ages.
Pittsburgh – 31.1
Washington – 29.6
NY Islanders – 29.0
Toronto – 28.6
Boston – 28.5
Edmonton – 28.5
NY Rangers – 28.4
Carolina – 28.4
Dallas – 28.4
Calgary – 28.2— CapFriendly Depth Charts (@CF_DepthCharts) July 10, 2023
3. The fourth line might be lightning fast
Penguins forward Noel Acciairi gave an assist to Brandon Tanev for his decision to sign with the Penguins. Acciari’s game resembles Tanev’s, including the powerful speed and not being afraid of a half dozen collisions per game.
The depth signing of RW Vinnie Hinostroza could appreciably increase the speed of the fourth line, certainly if Accairi fills the fourth-line center role and Matt Nieto lands on the other wing.
Fans might grouse as Alex Nylander could be the odd man out as the Penguins try to find production from Mikael Granlund, but at least the fourth line will have the jam and speed necessary to be a successful and productive unit.
Unlike last season.
However, the third line remains a work in progress. Only Lars Eller has a confirmed reservation. Perhaps Dubas can clone Acciari as a third-line winger, too? The Granlund and Carter questions remain.
Of course, there are still two months to go in this never-ending offseason.
Here’s more EK65 value: If he averages even one point/game, that’s nearly a dozen less that each of the four lines will have to score in the regular season compared to what Petry (31) had last season. So while it’s imperative that the bottom six contribute on at least a semi-regular basis, the need will be markedly less urgent.
I don’t buy all this old team rhetoric. Our stars are old, and you can change them only at the draft if you’re lucky to pick at the top. Almost all the other players are in the late-twenty/early-thirty, and they are in their prime, not old. Old is Carter that I hope sit in the press-box. Old is Petry that I hope is out in the Karlsson deal. So we aren’t really old.
They could use a youth infusion, but yes, the only way to do that is through the draft. Last year’s penguins team had too many of the same type of player. Too much skill can be a bad thing. Need some players to do the dirty work. Age doesn’t factor in much as far as that goes. I think Dubas has added some multi-dimesional players that can help in where the team lacked last season. All this team needs to do is get into the playoffs and anything can happen!!!
Poehling and Archibald were two of the fastest guys on the team last year and provided a good forecheck. Archibald was second on the team in hits. The 4th line was the least of their problems!
Those two played 53 and 62 games respectively. Archibald was supposed to be a primary penalty killer, and he missed a ton of time and the PK was 79%. They also chipped in a total of 26 points. Combined. That’s a big problem.
Nieto played 81 games and had practically as many points himself as those two did combined. Acciari played 77 games. He had 23 points.
Third line may have been the biggest problem, but the fourth line wasn’t far behind.
Yeah, that is when Poehling was in the line up and not on injured reserve. Also he wasn’t a very physical player for his size and Archibald was good for physicality but was hurt too for sometime.
Poehling was hurt too much and wasn’t physical for his size. Archibald was out longer term as well.
A lesson from Billy Beane (Moneyball) is appropriate here. A shrewd GM would look to buy low (and be selling high). Chasing EK is effectively buying high…last season was the outlier of his long career. He won’t duplicate 100 pts on the Pens. Conversely, unloading Petry, Poulin, and Smith as some have suggested is selling low. Poulin and Smith are at their lowest points of the past 3 years while Petry is coming off a meh season. Bring in Hanifin already, shipping out Petry, Smith, and the 2024 #1.
#AssBackwards
#NoahHanifin
Can Hanifin play the right side well consistently?
Graves signing closed the book on Hanifin. Why can’t people see this when discussing the acquisition of Karlsson?
Yes he did when needed. He’s got size, youth, good puck mover, and physicality when needed. Major upgrade to the D and protecting Jarry from being constantly run at with resulting injuries. Pettersson, Joseph, Petry, Smith….all softies with no backbone. 2 of those 4 need to be shipped out….otherwise no guarantee Jarry stays healthy the whole season.
You know that Hanifin isn’t known for his physically. He’s a very good player. But I make the over/under on fans calling him soft 30 games. Plus he is primarily a LD. Like said above, Graves makes Hanifin unnecessary. Graves, Pettersson, and Joseph are the opening night left side unless something drafting happens.
He’d be the most physical D-man on the entire roster. Moreso than Graves.
Hanifin plays Left D, we already have Graves and Petterson as top 4 LD. If trading petry, Smith, and a 1st to bring in another left D, it would put PO as the odd man out and mean Rudy or Rutta would play top 4 RD minutes. Wouldn’t work
Assuming EK65 comes aboard, Zadorov is the best LD option. He fills several needs at 6-foot-6, 247 pounds and 28 years old.
No need to take the injury risk with Erik the Great. Just figure out how to get Zadorov. POJ & The Dragon are just too light to protect the net front. Having size on all 3 pairs might help Jarry look like an all-star again.
In that regard, I would be far more concerned about Letang than EK65, who logged more minutes than every player in the league except Doughty last season.
Sam gets it. We’re not getting the EK of last
year. We’re getting this years version. May be worse, may be better, but definitely older. I’m not for trading for EK unless we can push out two bad contracts and only give up one or two younger pieces. Let them keep EK and his 11.5m salary. They’ll come crawling back by the tdl if not sooner.
Not convinced that Duby will have to cough up two first-rounders in an EK565 trade. Possible the Sharks would take DeSmith and two of Joseph/Pickering/Smith instead of a second first-rounder. They still remember when CDS stood on his head in a 3-1 robbery in San Jose last February. #SmokeEmDuby
Thinking more about Karlsson. I don’t love the idea. I think balancing his ice time and Letang’s will be tricky. BUT… 1) Is there a way this gets this far without Dubas talking to Letang about it? 2) Letang did yield number 1 PP duties to Schultz. That team won. 3) if Letang becomes a second pair D, then dang. What a boost he is there AND maybe he’s stronger come playoff time. 4) Letang and Kessel shared the points on the PP and got great results. Kessel’s a shooting threat perhaps more, but still it worked. 5) This team… Read more »
“That seems like worse casting than a Lifetime movie”. HA HA HA HA HA HA HA But I’m probably the only one who understood it.
I apologize for the grammatical error. It wasn’t until I saw your quote did I realize I should have transposed worse and casting.
Dan says it is hard to get younger on the cheap and without draft picks… and there’s two established ways to do so, at least on the fringes. In Toronto, Dubas brought over several European free agents, and it appears he gave handshake promises that if things didn’t work out satisfactorily with the Leafs or the Marlies, the team would look out for them and trade them to other organizations to ensure they got a fair shake in North America (which he has done). I think it’s likely he will continue to use this strategy, though it might take time… Read more »
The Penguins has signed a lot of Europeans and NCAA free agents in the last decade, and almost all of them were bust. Remember Pesonen, Plotnikov, Bengtsson, Lindberg, etc all highly toughed and then busted into nothing. The only one worth mentioning were Sheary and ZAR, maybe DeSmith (but he sucks anyway).
This article suggests the team will get younger as our FEW prospects develop and join the big club, yet all the prospects and draft picks are what’s rumored to be given up to get Karlsson. The Pens will continue to get older and more injured if this trade goes through. 1.5 years older than the second oldest team in the league. That’s significant.
After reading all the EK65 articles it seems like PIT is his preferred destination as a reunion with Brent Burns is not his priority. Since San Jose and EK are on the same page as far as a trade, PIT will not have to outbid Carolina. Keep in mind EK has a full NMC – so he has a sizeable say in the trade. I think the Poker game is about over and a fair but not grandiose trade is completed. Dubas gets EK at 50% (5.75 mil) and only has to part with Petry, POJ & 2024 1st rounder… Read more »