Analysis: Penguins’ Problem & Looming Gap in Kyle Dubas’s Plan

The Pittsburgh Penguins have won four in a row and are forcing themselves back into playoff contention.

And so the divergent worlds in which general manager Kyle Dubas is rebuilding the organization to re-attain Stanley Cup contender status and respecting Sidney Crosby and the championship core to allow them to remain competitive are on a full-speed collision course.

And, a Dubas divided against himself cannot stand.

Last season, Philadelphia Flyers GM Daniel Briere reminded fans that the playoffs were not the goal, but becoming a Stanley Cup contender was the aim. The upstart Flyers were in a playoff spot–third place in the Metro Division–and heading toward a strong regular season finish. But then Briere traded away veterans, including valuable defenseman Sean Walker, for future assets.

The Flyers’ free fall eventually landed them below even the Penguins and out of the playoffs.

At the NHL Draft in June, Dubas repeated words similar to those of Briere.

“For me, the range is looking beyond just the one season, and I wouldn’t deem it a success if we got into the playoffs next year by a point. We want to get back to being a contender,” Dubas said in June. “I mean, the coaches and the players have to look at it day to day. They’re trying to win every day … I have to look at it with a much broader lens–for Pittsburgh to be a team that just squeaks in (isn’t good enough). I understand that would be nice to be in, but we want to be a contender. And so we have to put the work in and improve the assets that are going to allow us to get there and do that, and that’s going to be our focus.”

If the Penguins are well out of the playoff race or lagging back, the players will have no one to blame but themselves. For the Penguins, the symbolic end of the regular season is days before the March 7 NHL trade deadline. If they firmly establish a chance to do something beyond simply making the playoffs, the team may stave off the GM’s black robe and scythe. If they fail to do so, Dubas has every right to dismantle the team like a chop shop and sell off the parts.

Or that’s one interpretation.

What will happen if the team does its job but rival GMs make good offers for valuable Penguins players now? What happens if the Penguins are indeed in a playoff spot, but Edmonton or Florida come calling for Marcus Pettersson? What if other teams decide it needs Bryan Rust’s leadership and scoring or Rickard Rakell’s silky mitts?

Would Dubas forgo assets at market value now to allow the Penguins to compete this season? Briere did not. Of course, Briere didn’t get Sidney Crosby to sign a discounted deal to remain with the team, either. Given the large-scale hurt and team-wide collapse that followed Dubas trading away Jake Guentzel, it’s not hard to see veterans losing faith when Dubas ships their comrades across the league for draft picks and prospects.

Reportedly, Dubas is prowling the trade market for young players, such as Philip Tomasino, whom he acquired from the Nashville Predators last week. But those types of players aren’t 1-for-1 types of replacements for the players the Penguins will give up.

How will the team react, as well as how will the roster look, after a few of Pettersson, Rust, Rakell, Bunting, or even Kris Letang head elsewhere while the team battles for a playoff spot?

It might be the hockey equivalent of removing Sidney Crosby’s heart and showing it to him. Will Dubas go through with it as Briere did to the Flyers?

The Dubas Roster Gap

Under current projections, there will be a huge talent gap between the end of the Crosby era and what we’ll term the Dubas era. Looking ahead to 2026, the team will lack enough impactful NHL players and young players carving their niche.

Every level of the Penguins organization, from ownership to management, has stated and restated that the purpose of all current roster moves is to restore the Penguins to contender status. Still, Dubas has balanced that forward-looking ideal with an expressed respect for the championship core who remain.

The roster moves since the 2024 trade deadline have largely been in keeping with rebuilding. Beginning July 1, 2024, no player received more than a two-year contract, and that was 26-year-old Blake Lizotte. The Penguins received draft picks to take on Cody Glass and Kevin Hayes while signing disposable one-year deals with Matt Grzelcyk and Anthony Beauvillier.

The strategy is simple. If the players succeed, they have trade value. If they don’t, there’s no long-term cap hit. Grzelcyk and Beauvillier probably represent each end of that spectrum, but the bigger question is “the gap.”

Dubas has acquired numerous draft picks in the 2025, but also as many in the 2027 draft. Assume four years, give or take one, to find out if those drafted prospects will bear fruit, so the future assets being acquired shouldn’t be expected to hit until 2028 at the earliest.

In the meantime, Evgeni Malkin will probably retire by then, and Letang will have well slowed if not retired, and, as much as the hockey world wants to see Crosby remain the indomitable workhouse superstar, he, too, will have slowed if not retired.

So, what about the three-year gap between 2025 and 2028 or 2029? Who will be left, and will anyone want to be here? It is a legitimate question: ” Who will be on the roster, and how bad will the Penguins be?

Thus far, Dubas has added Tomasino and Rutger McGroarty to his young players pile. McGroarty is currently getting a crash course in the rigors and difficulties of professional hockey, while 2022 first-round pick Owen Pickering seems to be acclimating well.

Pickering is showing to be a quick study, but he doesn’t project to be the type of player who takes over for Letang or Erik Karlsson.

So, how does Dubas get from here to there with any sort of competitive roster? There are two options: Don’t trade veterans and go down with the ship, or accept an undermanned team and let the remaining veterans deal with it.

Neither seems to be a great option.

Perhaps Dubas can fudge his plans and give away some of the future assets for young players to bridge the gap. Hello, Nick Robertson, Trevor Zegras, or Nils Hoglander.

There is a collision coming and the fallout will not be pretty, but rebuilds never are. Even if Dubas won’t use the word rebuild, that’s exactly what this is. Perhaps sooner than later, he’ll be forced to use that word.