The Penguins’ Two Biggest Needs for ‘The Run’
Elmont, N.Y. — The Pittsburgh Penguins were built for that one more glorious Stanley Cup run.
This season, the Penguins are on pace for a stellar 107 points, which would put them seven points clear of last season’s playoff cut line. Yet, despite the recent juggernaut roll that propelled the Penguins to third place in the Metro Division, they are tied with the New York Rangers and three points ahead of the New York Islanders, who are out of the playoff seeding.
The Penguins have two games in hand on the Islanders, so they have a 3-7 point playoff cushion. Despite taking 15 of their last 18 points, that’s all the cushion they’ve accumulated.
Sportsnet recently termed the Metro the “Division of Doom” because six playoff-worthy teams are battling for four, maybe five, spots.
The Penguins are having a great season and will be just fine if Sidney Crosby continues his Hart Trophy season, Evgeni Malkin continues his point-per-game pace, and Jason Zucker and Bryan Rust stay healthy.
All of that happening seems unlikely, doesn’t it?
In addition to some good luck, the Penguins have a couple of needs for “the run.”
Pittsburgh Penguins Needs
Despite a nearly $9 million third line, the Penguins have become top-heavy. The third line has become a point of consternation as Jeff Carter has just one point (1-0-1) in his last eight games. Kasperi Kapanen has no goals and three assists in eight games since his hat trick against the Buffalo Sabres.
Beyond the baseline stats, the Penguins’ third line has been pinned in the defensive zone.
In 21 games, the trio, including Brock McGinn, has just a 41% Corsi, an expected-goals rate of 36%, and 37% scoring chances.
In the past eight games, they have a nearly unbelievable 32% Corsi, 27% expected-goals rate and only 30% of scoring chances.
One player off his game can have an adverse effect, but not wholly torpedo a line. That’s a team effort.
Simply put, the Penguins need a better third line. However, they have few or no internal options unless coaches elevate Teddy Blueger to the third-line center or begin to reconfigure the bottom-six with the available forwards.
Perhaps the existing trio will rebound, but short of that, coaches will be forced to shuffle the lines to find a solution. And GM Ron Hextall could put this on the top of his NHL trade deadline shopping list.
Their biggest hope for a solution is for the duo, or at least one of Kapanen and Carter, to rise to the challenge.
More Needs
Before Twitter, owned by Jack or Elon, sports talk radio was where fans went to pile on struggling players. It seems Twitter amplifies the volume like a 1,000-watt Marshall amp pumps a six-string Les Paul.
Squarely at the bottom of the pile this season is Penguins defenseman Brian Dumoulin.
He’s had trouble with speedy teams and didn’t stop Carolina Hurricanes center Jordan Staal’s wraparound goal that tied the game in the third period of the Penguins’ 4-3 OT loss on Thursday.
It hasn’t been a great first few months for Dumoulin, at least 5v5. (Dumoulin is an integral part of the Penguins’ third-ranked penalty kill.)
Without Jeff Petry, who is on LTIR, Dumoulin and fellow stay-home defenseman Jan Rutta have comprised the second pairing. Fast and aggressive teams, like Carolina and the Buffalo Sabres, has success going after Dumoulin and Rutta.
Despite high minutes, the pair has been on the ice for five Penguins goals, but 11 goals-against. The Penguins’ winning streaks haven’t meant better numbers, including an expected goals rate and scoring chance rate of 45%.
Dumoulin had an upswing through November with reduced minutes, but Kris Letang’s absence, followed quickly by Jeff Petry’s injury, has thrust Dumoulin into the spotlight.
It’s a tough spot for the Penguins. Dumoulin provides valuable services, but without one of the top two defensemen, it’s an unbalanced blueline corps.
The actual need is fuzzy. There seem to be internal options to create more balance, but Mark Friedman, who played in six of the seven playoff games last May, hasn’t played an NHL game this season.
He doesn’t seem to be in the Penguins’ plans. At least, not yet.
Young defenseman Ty Smith, acquired from the New Jersey Devils in the John Marino trade, has been working on his defensive game at the AHL level, too.
However, an offensive defenseman in Dumoulin’s stead would create a problem for the PK.
The Pittsburgh Penguins have a chance. They also have needs, but few internal options and limited ability to obtain external options.
Of course, with about 20-22 teams at or within $1 million of the salary cap, many teams have needs, and few will be able to meet them.
Categorized:Penguins
I agree-2 biggest needs are replacing 8 and moving out someone on the 3 line for a player that is a better fit. Easier said than done.
Dan, any chance that Dumo has changed his playing style since his injuries. Either out of fear of reinjury or career extension. Just doesn’t seem like the guy he was pre injury.
I told Jeff and Jim on 93.7 the Fan this morning — maybe it’s confirmation bias, but I don’t think Dumoulin is moving as well, especially laterally.
The guy had a grade 3 MCL tear, not counting other injuries before. Of course he won’t be the same player in a blink of an eye. As far as I’m concerned he’s doing very well up to this point and will certainly up his game in the coming months. Just not exactly when we want him to by pressing the magic reset button that gets him back to factory settings.
This teams as the same problems they had the last couple of years. They are too small. When in the plaoffs. They get run over. They would need at least ONE or two bigger bodies forwards (not the Reaves type but maybe like..Lawson Crouse type of player….or a more agressive player like future UFA Max Domi) and one on D to clear the crease. Jarry will get run over almost every games. Very team knows it doesnt hurt to play against the Pens. If they are forechecking (on a good night (when they have their legs), its a fast but… Read more »
2 Albatross contracts in Carter and Kapanen…Without the ability to upgrade via trade the only solution would be to give Bluegers line third line minutes…I would put McGinn on that line replacing Archibald..Give Carters line fourth line minutes…no more than 8-9 per game…Carter needs to be a RW not a center..However one big problem here is Sullivan doesn’t trust young players with any kind of ice time in the third period..Look around all the Metro teams are putting younger guys in their lineup…and actually playing them..How do we know how OConner Friedman Nylander Smith might help out if they never… Read more »
Nick Ritchie and Jakob Chychrun. Said it before and I’ll say it again. Top LD to play with Letang and get Pettersson back with Petry. Big Body forward to play with Carter and McGinn. Two scoring lines and two checking lines. Dumoulin and Kapanen plus the next two 1st round picks gets it done. $7.3 million goes out and $7.1 million comes in. Do we really see an impact player picked at number 21 (or higher) that is going to come in and make an impact with Sid or Geno? How’s that Poulin kid working out? The time to win… Read more »
I do have to agree with this thinking. I do believe we need to be a bit more aggressive this season. Chychrun is the player I would spend picks and prospects on. He is young, he can help the team now, and in the future, and he has a great cap hit. He is definitely someone I would spend some draft capital on. Ritchie is a wildcard to me. I do like Crouse and Domi who someone brought up above. I think its time to say heck with it and blow the doors off of this trade deadline. This move… Read more »
Ok… I’m the Coyotes GM…I want this years number 1 next years number 1 Joseph and Blueger…What’s do you say ? Because this is a realistic trade request
The two No. 1 picks are definitely required. And Joseph may be a key piece, but they want more than Blueger. Also — no way. Vast overpay.
Agreed agreed agreed…need to get a serviceable third line center move Carter to wherever…a tough defenseman and hope that the old timers stay healthy…Het how about Colorados seventh d man Kris McDermid..big strong really tough and behind a wall of good d men
Poulin? 👎
Id love to hear what these valuable services are that Dumo provides.
Why did Adrian Dater leave Colorado Hockey Now?
We needed to make changes there, and this was the best result for both. It’s unfortunate some of the stuff I see on Twitter, but that’s as much as I need to say.
Health and Luck.
Ollie Maata is available from the DRW and we have cap space to let. Want size we have Lundqvist or Erne available too. Pick up the phone and talk to Steve Yzerman costs nothing but picks. Assets today for costs tomorrow sounds like our government. But,we all hear the window being slammed shut.
I think they are missing a sparkplug type player in the mold of Tanev or Talbot. Someone with speed who can throw a big check and be a netfront presence. Not sure who that could be if they are out there via trade. Also, Joseph has been steady this season but i have doubts that he will continue for the whole season and in the playoffs with added pressure and way more physicality and refs putting away the whistle. A solid defenseman with playoff experience and net clearing skills. Those would be my two needs.
I’ll reiterate what I’ve said already. 3rd line’s problem is Carter and nothing else. I’ll also repeat that I’m hoping to see him playing better. I don’t see him on the wing because he doesn’t have the speed anymore. Yeah, he might still pull off one or two rushes, but that’s not enough to play wing the entire game. We’ve already seen how that looks when he was a winger on Malkin’s line. Please, hockey gods, don’t let me watch that again. As I see it, this team is good enough. No trade required. Maybe a salary shed for recalls,… Read more »
Why on earth does Teddy Blueger always get mentioned as if he was good? You throw out these bad numbers over the last 8 games from the 3rd line yet those are comparable to Bluegers for the entire season. Dude has 1 goal. ONE. His advanced stats are miserable and while some of that can be attributed to zone starts, not all of it can. It also brings up another huge issue in that he is by far the worst center who takes regular face offs at taking face offs. And he hasn’t improved since turning pro. He isn’t the… Read more »