Predicting the Penguins Final Roster & Lines

“Still alive and kicking,” joked one of the Pittsburgh Penguins players, who was on the roster bubble but still at practice Saturday morning.

Indeed, the Penguins are getting down to the final decisions, which very well could become apparent at 2 p.m. Sunday when PuckPedia.com and the NHL broadcast partners tweet the players who are now on waivers.

There could be two Penguins on the board today, at least if Pittsburgh Hockey Now’s predictions are correct. In full disclosure, the decisions today are difficult, as emotion, potential, and fear of losing a player on waivers could tip the scales toward safe decisions.

No matter which route they take, what coach Mike Sullivan and Penguins president of hockey operations/GM Kyle Dubas ultimately decide will be debatable.

The Penguins could keep 23 players—they have the salary cap space to do so—and might find the 23rd spot useful rather than the 22 players they’ve been forced to carry in recent seasons.

 Penguins Roster Prediction

It should be a sure thing that Jesse Puljujarvi makes the NHL roster. He was phenomenal in training camp.

However, salary cap math will play a heavy role in the rest. The Penguins can keep 14 forwards or eight defensemen, but not both. Alex Nedeljkovic’s lower-body injury may knock the number of skaters to 20 instead of 21 as the team carries Joel Blomqvist for a week or two instead of putting Nedeljkovic on LTIR.

Oh, it gets very tricky.

Clarification: The following math assumes Matt Nieto is placed on LTIR.

The real test involves three forwards: Rutger McGroarty, Valtteri Puustinen, and Cody Glass. McGroarty would not have to clear waivers to be assigned to the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins of the AHL. That’s a point against him. However, he had three points in the preseason finale, made some sparkling plays, and has the greatest potential of the three.

It would be very easy to send him WBS because his game isn’t yet fully formed, but that would be a failure to ice the best 18 skaters. McGroarty should be in the lineup. Friday’s finale showed that.

Puustinen scored a goal in his final audition Thursday in Columbus, but against the fan attachment, he is 25 and probably not getting much better.

However, here’s where salary cap math becomes fatal. If Nedeljkovic is a candidate for LTIR, it makes a BIG difference. If the Penguins carry three goalies to avoid putting Nedeljkovic on LTIR, that’s a roster spot and cap space that can’t be allocated elsewhere.

The same also applies to Blake Lizotte, who has a concussion.

According to the PuckPedia.com GM tool, in a 14 forwards scenario (with an injured Lizotte not on LTIR), the Penguins could afford to keep McGroarty and Puustinen OR Puustinen and Glass, but not McGroarty and Glass.

Would Dubas waive Glass to keep McGroarty?

We would do it and then let the other chips fall where they may. Glass was pretty good in training camp and solid in the preseason, but McGroarty is a difference-maker. Glass’s $2.5 million salary cap hit might be a pretty good deterrent to a team claiming him, meaning the Penguins would keep their depth, too.

Defense

The top seven defensemen are pretty easy. Ryan Graves and Jack St. Ivany are the fifth and sixth defensemen. Ryan Shea, who can play both sides, is the seventh. If the team keeps eight defensemen, Sebastian Aho stays. Losing John Ludvid to waivers may impact the Penguins thinking here. They had depth on the blue line, but the possibility of losing two d-men with NHL experience would be a hit.

Aho is a left-handed defenseman, and the Penguins did audition him on the right side early in camp and preseason, but he didn’t make much of an impact on either side.

Final 23

The final roster spot is Aho vs. Puustinen

One caveat: Harrison Brunicke had an amazing training camp. He would be the Penguins’ top right-handed defenseman call-up, except that if they send him back to juniors, they can only recall him in an emergency situation. We think everyone would love to keep him around for at least nine games, but the situation is getting a little too crowded. Losing Aho could be bad news because that would make Mac Hollowell or Filip Kral the next-up veteran defenseman, and neither was terribly impressive in camp.

So, if the Penguins keep Brunicke and lose Aho, they may be forced to keep Brunicke for the entire season but play him sparingly, which is not an ideal development strategy.

However, we also think there could be some RHDs available on the wire.

So, here goes nothing.

Penguins Lines

Drew O’Connor-Sidney Crosby-Bryan Rust

Michael Bunting-Evgeni Malkin-Rickard Rakell

Rutger McGroarty-Lars Eller-Jesse Puljujarvi

Anthony Beauvillier-Kevin Hayes-Noel Accairi

Injured/press box: Blake Lizotte, Valtteri Puustinen

Waived: Cody Glass.

Defense

Matt Grzelcyk-Kris Letang

Marcus Pettersson-Erik Karlsson

Ryan Graves/Ryan Shea-Jack St. Ivany

Press box: Shea/Graves.

Waived: Aho. Brunicke sent to juniors (Kamloops).

Goalies

Tristan Jarry

Alex Nedeljkovic (LTIR or IR)

Emergency Call-up: Joel Blomqvist

Based on the PuckPedia calculator, this configuration would leave about $337,566 of salary cap space.

We’ll check back to see how we did.