Pittsburgh Penguins
Anderson: Let’s Get Real About Rust, Rakell and Penguins’ Direction
So you’re waiting impatiently for the Pittsburgh Penguins to trade winger Bryan Rust to get a haul that will help set the team on a path toward being a contender again? And on those coattails, to trade fellow winger Rickard Rakell, too?
You might want to make sure what you’re wishing for.
Trading Rust, in particular, would be throwing in the towel on any sort of retool that falls short of a full rebuild. Trading Rust would signal a full-on rebuild. Trading Rust and Rakell would solidify that path.
If that’s what you want, great.
Just be aware that a total rebuild comes with lots of risk (see, Chicago Blackhawks), where a retool that retains the best of what the current roster has to offer and adds a bevy of youth and competent role players is a better bet (see, Washington Capitals).
Really. Especially with the flexibility of a rising salary cap.
Does Penguins president of hockey operations/general manager Kyle Dubas believe that? His actions will answer that, but he has intimated he’s not looking to tear everything down to the studs (no pun intended) for a total rebuild. He wants to get the franchise not only back to the playoffs — which is a critical step that needs to happen next sprig — but also set up to make some noise in the playoffs as quickly as possible.
For the fans’ sake, here’s hoping Dubas prefers the retool route.
There’s a perception that Dubas will have to have his socks knocked off by an offer to trade Rust, and that he won’t easily let go of Rakell.
Great, but there is almost no way Dubas will get back a player or players who can immediately be the equal of Rust and Rakell’s productivity (30-plus goals), veteran presence and ability to play seamlessly with centers Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
Read: Calculating the Penguins Trade Values for Rakell and Rust
That’s no knock on Dubas’ abilities. It just isn’t feasible. Besides, why would he trade those two players for clones, even if he could? It’s not like he’s going to bring Jake Guentzel back.
Speaking of Guentzel, his trade near the 2024 trade deadline might be a good barometer of what the Penguins could get for Rust. In that deal, the Penguins got Michael Bunting, Ville Koivunen, Vasily Ponomarev and a couple good draft picks.
That turned out to be a good deal, but not for any sort of short term.
It also sent the team into a funk. What do you think trading Rust and, to a lesser extent, Rakell would do?
Yeah, sure, it would heighten the Penguins’ chances of getting presumed No. 1 overall draft pick Gavin McKenna next June. But only heighten.
Just get over that. It would be marvelous, but it’s just not likely to happen. Don’t get greedy over some idea that the Penguins are going to get McKenna. Get greedy over retaining Rust and Rakell.
Besides, tanking – which would also be tied to trading Rust and Rakell – would be an ugly way to try to re-establish contention. Clubs don’t necessarily have to have a generational talent such as McKenna, Auston Matthews or Connor McDavid to win a Stanley Cup or two (see, Florida Panthers).
It worked for the Penguins, of course, when they tanked to get Mario Lemieux and then got lucky to get Crosby. They still have Crosby.
Crosby is signed for the next two seasons. He turns 38 next week. He’s still an incredible player, and intensely competitive and loyal. He fully understands the business side of hockey. Still, trading Rust, in particular, would border on being disrespectful to Crosby, even though he would never publicly acknowledge it.
So go ahead and root for Rust and Rakell trades. Cheer for a tank job that most likely will not net a generational player.
It’s not like you would have to look Sidney Crosby in the eye and tell him you’re trading Rust and Rakell and going into a full rebuild.
Without trades or high draft picks, how would the team improve? Keeping the team the same and adding journeyman type players, then a lot of hope?
I am not rooting for anyone to be traded, but i am not sure what the path to contention actually looks like without getting younger and acquiring high draft picks.
Great counterpoint article Shelly. What steps would you take to make the penguins a better team?
Agreed. And if 87 didn’t realize any of this wasn’t possible, that’s on him. Shrug.
Not sure what you call this process but when I look at how many currently rostered players are UFAs either this year or next, you tell me what it’s called. 🙂 I guess we can tell who likes to rip a bandaid off quickly and who prefers a nice, slow, agonizing pull. 😁
They already are in the process of getting younger with some quality players, at least a few of them on tap to play this season, and there seem to be some upgrades at forward with a couple new faces and a healthy Tommy Novak. There is a glut on defense, which needs to get a lot better, whether through trades, competition, better response to a new staff, or all of the above. If they have Rust and, to a somewhat lesser extent, Rakell as bridge talent for at least one more season, they have a much better chance to start… Read more »
I appreciate your always optimistic views! Thank you 😊
I really like your article but this comment about “Rust and to a lesser extent, Rackell” – I would definitely (strongly) switch around the other way!
Free agency or trades after your young players develop.
Realistically, neither the Blackhawks nor the Capitals were actual Stanley Cup contenders this year. When Ovi retires, will the Caps or Hawks be better set up for the future? A retool only works when all the right buttons are pressed, all the players have career (anomaly) years, and health is a major factor – see Chychrun, Roy, Duhaime, PLD not being a cancer for once, Mangiapane (who is gone), Thompson, Protas, McMichael, Strome, Wilson, the list goes on and on. Expecting them to replicate this past year is about as farfetched as it gets. It also helps when they had… Read more »
Really respect your work, Shelly — excellent article. That said, this just pokes the bear when it comes to the reality: this team is in decline, no matter how many short-term free agents are brought in. Those signings are more about filling roster spots than offering long-term solutions. Looking at the bigger picture, team goal scoring has dropped three straight seasons, and 5-on-5 production has been flat-out poor. Sure, the power play improved — but considering how rough it was the year before, that improvement feels more like a rebound than a true step forward. It masked deeper issues and… Read more »
A retool will only work if you trade the guys who have some value (like Rust and Rakell) for NHL players who haven’t tapped their potential or are undervalued by their current teams. Those players also have to “hit”. The only other way to retool is trade away draft picks, which we don’t want to do.
If the Pens wanted to retool properly, the time period when Rutherford was exiting and Hextall was entering was the time do it as more of the Pens players had legitimate trade value. I think it’s a little too late now.
Excellent article. Agree 100%. It’s not just CHI, but also SJ and ANA…the poster children for failed rebuilds despite drafting high end picks.
I realize I’m in the minority here. I believe this team will surprise this year and slide into the playoffs. New coach and staff, 3 or 4 youngsters becoming regulars and bringing badly needed energy, increased truculence, and an abundance of D for essentially 2 or 3 open spots depending on if EK is traded. Let the competition begin, and may the best men win. Let’s F***ing Go!
Couldn’t agree more, Sam. Now if we could just get a good goalie (or somehow help the one we have) that would be even better. (I do think they traded the wrong goalie already, even if for a back-up to a new one)!
I’d have to agree with prior articles here that top 5 picks make a difference and hence disagree with you on R/R perspective.
The talk of “Tank for McKenna” is too much tunnel vision; the talk should be “tank to improve.” The Pens can tank, miss out on McKenna entirely, and still get a superstar in next year’s draft. Who knows if McKenna will even be the eventual #1 overall pick, as scouts are drooling over that defenseman and a year is a long time full of possibilities. The quickest way to rebuild is to land young superstars, and the most common/likely way to land young superstars is to pick as high in the draft as possible. You tank to pick high in… Read more »
Careful with all that logic! 🙂
As for the concerns that trading Rust would be: 1.) a sign of disrespect for Sid or 2.) having to look Sid in the eye after trading Rust, my impression of Sid is that he’s at heart an altruist. Thus, the determining factor in Sid’s reaction to a trade would be how Rust felt about it. For example, Rust might be very happy with a trade to the Red Wings because of his origins. In that circumstance I think Sid would be happy for his teammate. Thus, I believe that the expressed concerns about Sid’s reactions to a Rust trade… Read more »
Rust has been as clear as Sid that he wants to stay.
Pete, I agree with you about what Rust said at the end of the season. However, that doesn’t alter the reasonable possibility that Rust would have a change of heart if either he was consulted about a trade or was sent somewhere he liked. My ultimate point is that I disagree with Shelly’s belief that trading Rust would be disrespectful of Sid and make it difficult to look Sid in the eye. That might be true of a player who is self absorbed and sees events through the prism of how does it affect me; that’s definitely not my impression… Read more »
Yet another article that contradicts the direction that Dubas is actually taking the team. Signing washed-up players and getting draft picks isn’t getting the Penguins in the playoffs next spring, regardless of what Dubas says. It sure looks like the tank is on based on last season and what the roster looks like for next season, regardless of what Dubas says. I suppose next week’s article will be about Dubas slow walking the retool over the next four to five years and waiting for Kindel and Zonnon to be the next Crosby and Malkin. The Penguins must trade Rakell and… Read more »
Giving Rakell a chance to reduce his value during the season from where his last season performance was is a huge risk. And a “no no”, IMO. I’m not sure who did the analysis on 67 here a while ago, but the numbers indicated last season he was two standard deviations above his career performance. Therefore, sell high.
100% this! I can’t see Raks’ value ever being higher than it is now.
Sell Mortimer, sell!
Here we go, Stil-lers . . .
Not such a bad comparison, actually. No losing seasons! No playoff appearances (in forever)! No trophy (in even longer)! Let’s (maybe) make the playoffs! Let’s pay the player on the downside of his career record money! (Too soon?) Sign the old guy (so we keep that first streak alive)! (facepalm) Could be worse, right? Like the other team in town, heh.
Here is a touchy subject-does that correlate in keeping 87s ppg streak going?
Oooooo… great point (pun). How’d i miss that one? 🙂
You can’t tell me that there isn’t some consideration of this when trading these guys, it’s somewhere in the rearview mirror.
did Chicago have Crosby? nope so move on Shelly. retool with the guys who haven’t made the playoffs in 3 years and haven’t won a playoff series in 8 years. yeah right. horrible take again from this site.
History states you’re wrong on the tanking front. The pens have a horseshoe logged up the you know what 🤣 I say trade rakell and karlson, then go for it next season with the 50mil or so in cap space.
Thank you for saying it loudly…” there is almost no way Dubas will get back a player or players who can immediately be the equal of Rust and Rakell’s productivity (30-plus goals), veteran presence and ability to play seamlessly with centers Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.” That’s the simple truth. I’ve NEVER been on board with trading either Raks or Rust and certainly not both…if we want to remain competitive and build playoff competitors. I for one don’t want to wait 10 years until we could even think about the SC.
Why does it matter that they cannot “immediately” be 30 goal players? This team won’t cease to exist in 2026 – good players will be needed in the future as well. Rust/Rakell at 35 years old aren’t going to be overly useful or valuable. And Rust Rakell at 32/33 aren’t going to be on a good team if they are not traded, so their usefulness and value will be largely wasted if they remain on the team. This team, with Rakell and Rust, needs a 2C. It will soon needs a 1C. It doesn’t have an proven 3C. It doesn’t… Read more »
With a retool you hope to be SC competitive in 3-4 years. A rebuild is looking at 5-8. I would like to see the Penguins make it to the playoffs this year, even if it’s squeaking by and losing in the first round. That’s progress and also player development. The next year following, I would want to see them being competitive in the first round.
Chicago moved on from Toews and Kane to force the down to the studs. They look better now than they did a few years ago after some good drafting and lottery luck. They still haven’t made it back, but should make the playoffs soon.
I guess I think trying to get better now or at this year’s trade deadline is one year too early. The Penguins need another impactful draft, and they specifically need a #1 center and a #1 D prospect. They are unlikely to be able to trade for those players or sign them in free agency.
So I guess they don’t have to go full tank, and with better defense and goaltending- they could be league average.
And that’s a mistake.
This is a bottom-5 roster, and that’s okay.
Better the Sabres for five years than the Wild for Twenty.
While I hate to admit it, substitute CBJ for Wild. I think the Wild have been much more successful.
Shelly, great article. You’ve said exactly what I’ve been saying all along. What I haven’t heard from anyone is that winning or giving an honest effort is what puts fannies in the seats and fannies in the seats means more income and F.S.G. isn’t in the business to lose money.
The issue here. is on the blue line. Guys like Letang and Karlsson, are NOT Larry Murphy, Ulf Sameulsson, or Shel Sameulsson.
J.J. Dainualt, Darius Kasparitis. Bums. Entering the offensive zone, that blue line means stop. Period. Bobby Orr ruined the game .
They should have kept DeSmith. Jarry can’t stop a beach ball. But the guys in front of him…
Hockey games are won from the net out. And the pens want “puck moving” defensivemen. I want defensive defensivemen.
Having 15 guys that can find twine means nothing when you can’t keep it out of your own net…
Completely disagree with that whole article! Penguins don’t need to be stuck in the mushy middle. Yeah we might not get McKenna number one but we need a top five pick. And the Florida Panthers captain was taking second overall.The kids don’t need Raquel or Russ to help them grow. That’s the captains job and we got a hell of a good captain, we need returns. Everybody knows it you should too.
The Pirates got the Gavin McKenna of hockey when they drafted Paul Skenes as a result of being the worst team in baseball since Abner Doubleday met Bob Nutting. Let’s assume that Dubas reverses field and stops planning for the 2030 season. Instead, he scraps the current roster for a bag of pucks and box seats to a Pirates home stand. Pens wind up bottom 5 in 2025, win the lottery and draft McKenna who turns out to be a phenom just like Skenes. 2026 season McKenna wins the Calder and Pens still finish last. I prefer having Crosby Redux… Read more »
Correction: Gavin McKenna of baseball
To clarify: Crosby Redux = Gavin McKenna
Thus, I meant to say that I’d prefer to have a super star now to watch rather than GMKD’s apparent focus on an attenuated process of gradually weaning the team from its current roster including R&R.
Hoping to receive “equivalent value” for R&R is fine as long as that hope doesn’t distract from the reality that R&R’s equivalent value is not necessarily quantifiable in goals and points.
This situation reminds me a bit of alexi kovalev in 2003. He was their best trade chip but they didn’t NEED to trade him. They moved him for Rico fata Joel Boucher Mikel samuelsson and some dude named Richard linter? The trade looked pretty bad at the time and even worse now. If a strong offer for rust and rakell comes about then certainly make the trade but if not then hang on to them. A trade for a trades sake is bad business