The Penguins’ Real Cutoff to be Buyers or Sellers at Trade Deadline
NEW YORK — The Pittsburgh Penguins are officially five points out of an Eastern Conference wild-card spot. Reading the tea leaves and winning percentages becomes a different matter. The Penguins trail the Tampa Bay Lightning by five with three games in hand, but from there, it gets quite messy.
The Penguins trail the New Jersey Devils by two points with no games in hand and the Carolina Hurricanes by four points with two games in hand.
That’s the problem with five teams between the Penguins and a postseason berth. And, for the adamant crowd demanding a rebuild, you can rest assured the Pittsburgh Penguins management has heard your cries … and turned off the radio, at least for now.
The goal is to make the playoffs. They didn’t belly up to the bar and order 33-year-old Erik Karlsson, a $10 million Norris Trophy-winning defenseman, just to sell tickets or learn to speak Swedish.
Yet the Penguins’ grip on this season remains tenuous. Are they the team that finally went stride for stride with Carolina and won, or disinterested zombies who got pummeled in Tampa Bay, destroyed in Toronto, and were 20 minutes away from being embarrassed for a third time in Ottawa last Saturday?
All of those games happened within the last two weeks. Are they Clark Kent, or are they Superman? Do they yet know?
And for the second consecutive year, the New York Islanders might hold the key. The Penguins will face the second-place Islanders twice in four days.
Last season, the Penguins blew a pair of multi-goal third period leads to the Islanders and narrowly missed the playoffs (if they deserved the postseason is another matter).
They needed some wins in their current three-game stretch with Carolina, Ottawa, and the Islanders on Wednesday at UBS Arena. Since they’ve won one and earned a loser point, they’ve stretched their window on seriously getting back into the playoff race.
But at what point will they decide it’s time to go all in or cut bait?
In his press conference following the Penguins disappointing road trip through Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and Florida, in which they were winless, president of hockey operations/GM Kyle Dubas said the All-Star break was the fork in the road in which he would know which direction.
Of course, that was before a couple more pummeling losses.
Everyone expects the Penguins to eventually put the Hall of Fame pieces together and figure out the game of Perfection, but as soon as the seem to solve the puzzle of lethargy and terrible hockey, the clock hits zero, and the board pops into chaos again.
The sheer number of teams involved in the race surely complicates Dubas’s decision. They could be four points back but still have five teams between them and the magic cut line.
They could also be six points back and have only a few obstacles between them and the second wild card. However, banking on Philadelphia and Washington to start losing and Tampa Bay, Carolina, and New Jersey to keep losing more closely resembles daydreaming than reality.
In the days gone by, six points was the line of demarcation. Beyond six points, it was over, and within six points, it was a “go for it.”
The NHL schedule makers didn’t do fans nor teams any favors with fewer divisional games (A playoff spot should be decided by playing the teams you’re competing with. TV ratings and fan reaction, despite the high brow X responses that oddly popped up last summer, bear that out).
The schedule finally gets division-heavy in the second half of the season. The Penguins have a few more games, including Wednesday, with the Islanders and Capitals.
Dubas will have to decide if he feels his team can win those games because several take place after the 2024 NHL trade deadline. That Dubas-set D-day, the All-Star Game, is Feb. 3, which gives the Penguins little more than a month and 14 games to seize the day and control their fate.
Of those possible 28 points, the Penguins probably need 20 to get into a playoff spot or be on the cusp. For the sake of argument, let’s call that 9-4-2.
To get 95 points, which is probably the floor of getting into the playoffs, they need 61 of the 100 points remaining. Yes, that’s essentially greater than a .600 winning percentage.
Wins. They need wins over the next 14 games, or the remainder of the 100 points will be irrelevant. The question will not be if Dubas makes changes but how dramatically. The Penguins didn’t acquire Karlsson for a show, and he didn’t accept the Penguins’ trade to lose.
No, the math is not kind to the Penguins. Of course, they haven’t been kind to themselves, either. This is the hole they’ve dug.
They have the elite top line and are getting the necessary goaltending. It seems their future lies upon everything else.
The new math probably suggests they’ll need to be within four points of the spot because of the number of teams involved. Anything beyond that is hope, and as coach Mike Sullivan is fond of saying, hope is not a strategy.
Stop talking about victory over the ‘Canes. Carolina was the better team throughout the game. The No Call on Sid (two holds on the same rush) saved the Pens.
Carolina has only a defense and nothing for an offense! They send the puck around the boards and do nothing with it! The most boring watch in the NHL!
You forgot to mention the abysmal lack of star power
Not any worse than passing the puck around the outside and never taking a shot. Defense becomes all that more important when you get into the playoffs. Better to win a 1-0 game than lose a game 5-4.
This team is nothing more than an aged team with Sid carrying them on his back. If he falters it’s over. Time to move on because hoping he will do it is not a strategy as well.
If Sid gets hurt (which historically speaking is quite likely) we will see who this team is very quickly.
‘cept I think we already know. It’s just being masked.
Only another 17 games win streak can save the season.
Or, maybe, a new head coach.
They are not making the playoffs anyway when do they start to dismantle this team they will stick with Sullivan to years end this is last year all over again except they can’t score goals the ghost of Hextall I guess
If you do the math the season is probably already finished barring something totally miraculous. Also, there’s lots of talk about getting into the playoffs, but that’s not the goal. The Cup is. Nobody really believes they are Stanley Cup worthy, do they?
Cue the “Anything can happen” folks… heh.
He needs to make moves now.
Yeah man, the Dubas has to shore up the team!!!
Love fans who piss all over their team with not half a season gone! Only in Pittsburgh!
If I think the team is not good enough to win the cup, what should I do? Pretend they are? Go team!!!
In my view, A GM has to be just as committed to re-Building a team as what he has to make a serious cup run. The losses they have had are telling and the way they have lost speaks volumes. For the past 8 seasons they have been trading away pick after pick and prospect after prospect to go all in for a “run” that never materialized. There is very little tread on these tires and despite yeoman efforts by Dubas to put together better 3/4 lines. They are better but they have no depth and the dysfunction of the… Read more »
Kick that can, lol. They tried to do things to enhance the chances of the team to compete, even though most fans know they are not a cup team. They arent deep enough and their stars arent surrounded by youth. Now is the time to make those moves and change the make up of the team. How much worse would they be a with some changes to th3 top 9? It wouldn’t be a stretch to say, not much. They might even be better. But they will hold on to these guys and it will be too late. Lets go… Read more »
It might be better too hold off a little while. It gives a little more time for everyone to see whether the team gels or continues its moribund performance. Players may be more open to waiving their no trade clause at that point. Also, teams will be more motivated to give up young talent to get a veteran who might help them in the playoffs.