Sports Gambling

UFC 276 Betting Preview & DraftKings Promo: Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier

Published

2 years ago

July 2, 2022

Dan Kingerski

UFC 276 understands the assignment. One title fight? Yeah, that’s fun. Add the DraftKings promo for a big win.

But two? Oh, baby. Two is where the magic happens.

A fight card becomes impossible to ignore when both the co-main and main events put a shiny golden belt on the line –– and that’s exactly what’s happening at UFC 276: Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier this Saturday, July 2, inside Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena.

As the event name indicates, UFC middleweight king Israel Adesanya looks to defend his strap against Jared Cannonier in the night’s main event, while featherweight wrecking machine Alex Volkanovski wants to do the same one fight earlier in a showdown against former 145-pound champion Max Holloway.

Add in a high-profile middleweight clash between Sean Strickland and Alex Pereira, the return of “Suga” Sean O’Malley, a matchup between absolute legends Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone, and so much more, and UFC 276 truly represents a fight fan’s dream.

Oh, and it’s also flush with opportunities to make some cash.

You just gotta know where and how to bet.

Let’s examine this UFC 276 fight card from a betting perspective in our Adesanya vs. Cannonier betting preview with odds, picks, and predictions.

UFC 276 Main Event Odds

Here is the current line for Adesanya vs. Cannonier with the DraftKings Promo (Get the 20-1 Boost. Bet $5 and win $100 with the DraftKings promo here):

Moneyline: Adesanya (-455); Cannonier (+335)

Over/Under rounds: 4.5 (Over -125)

UFC 276 Betting Prediction

That Moneyline reflects Adesanya’s dominance at 185 pounds. He’s 22-1 overall in his professional MMA career, with that lone defeat coming back in March of 2021 when he challenged Jan Blachowicz for his light heavyweight title at UFC 259.

Fighting 20 pounds above his more natural weight class, Adesanya found himself unable to handle the power of pressure of the larger Blachoiwicz, and he lost a decision as a result.

Interestingly, Cannonier began his MMA career at heavyweight and slowly worked his way down to middleweight (even competing inside the UFC Octagon at light heavyweight) so on paper he is exactly the type of opponent Adesanya might struggle to overcome.

The oddsmakers aren’t buying that narrative, though. Should you?

Let’s get down to betting business.

The UFC 276 Bets We Love

Israel Adesanya to win (-455 – Barstool Sportsbook)

Israel Adesanya to win by TKO (+165 – Barstool Sportsbook)

I’m genuinely impressed by Cannonier’s career arc. Initially, it looked like his ceiling would be that of a gatekeeper inside the UFC Octagon, but he’s demonstrated some remarkable improvements, working –– and earning –– his way to this title shot against Adesanya at UFC 276.

A fighter like that is always dangerous. The X-factor with Cannonier is just that: Nobody can shake his belief. He’s maintained a steady, consistent growth inside the cage, and while he may not be the fanciest or the flashiest fighter, he gets it done and, perhaps more importantly, he genuinely believes he should win every fight.

The mental aspect of MMA is huge, and Cannonier seems to have that on lock.

Unfortunately for him, Adesanya is, as the kids say, built different.

There’s a reason Adesanya is so heavily favored in this bout, and it’s because he’s a technical wizard on the feet with ever-improving grappling to boot. Nobody has cracked the code at 185 against Adesanya, and I just don’t see Cannonier having the answers, either.

Taking it a step farther, I see Adesanya turning out the lights in this one around the midway point of the fight –– Round 4 sounds right.

Look for him to play it conservatively early while he deciphers Cannonier’s timing and rhythm then step on the gas late to earn the finish.

Israel Adesanya via TKO, Round 4 is the move here.

Bonus UFC 276 Bets We Love

Alex Volkanovski to win via decision (+125)

I could overthink this one –– but I’m not gonna.

Volkanovski is not only the best featherweight on the planet right now, but he’s firmly entered the GOAT discussion at 145 pounds.

He already defeated Holloway twice in back-to-back bouts in 2019 and 2020, and he’s only looked better and better with each showing since then. His ceiling remains to be seen, and even though his previous contests vs. Holloway were close, he won the decision both times.

There’s no reason to believe he won’t do it again. The third time won’t be the charm for Holloway in this one. And still.

Sean Strickland wins via submission (+900)

Here’s the thing: Sean Strickland’s grappling is wildly underrated. He hasn’t won via submission since March of 2014 –– despite stepping into the Octagon 14 times since then.

And that’s fantastic news for bettors on this UFC 276 fight card.

Strickland’s fallen in love with his hands recently, and he’s winning fights by outpacing and outpointing his opponents. That’s great.

But he’s not going to be able to do that against a legendary striker like Alex Pereira. If Strickland keeps this fight standing, he likely will wind up unconscious.

But if he elects to grapple, he should enjoy some serious success. I expect Strickland to close the distance, drag this fight to the mat, and take over where he owns a distance advantage. The oddsmakers clearly don’t see this happening at +900.

Take their money and run.

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Sean O’Malley to win via TKO/KO/DQ (+135)

I’m all in on the “Suga” train.

To me, Sean O’Malley is undefeated as a professional mixed martial artist. Yes, Marlon Vera defeated him, but that was only after O’Malley suffered an injury and was forced to essentially compete on one leg.

Yeah, I said it. I’m making excuses for O’Malley.

And they’re valid.

That fight aside, O’Malley’s looked phenomenal and borderline untouchable inside the Ocatgon. To be fair, Pedro Munhoz represents a considerable step up in competition –– but it won’t be enough.

Take O’Malley via TKO/KO and feel good about it here. His career is about to launch into the stratosphere.