Metro Division

The Way Too Early Penguins, Metro Division Predictions

Published

3 months ago

July 22, 2024

Pittsburgh Penguins, Metro Division, New York Rangers, Drew O'Connor

After a week of examining the changes in attitude and latitude of the Pittsburgh Penguins’ top rivals in the Metro Division, the trajectory of the 2024-25 NHL season is becoming a little bit clearer.

The NHL has never been as competitive, and games in October have never been so important. Fewer top teams can ease into the season, and a bad start can lead to a coaching change. Just ask Jay Woodcroft, whose Edmonton Oilers slumped out of the gate only to catch fire for the remainder of the season when Kris Knoblauch took over the bench in November.

*This is the final in a PHN series analyzing the offseasons and projections of the Metro Division teams.

In other words, playoff spots are largely set at U.S. Thanksgiving. The adage that teams need to be in a playoff spot by Turkey Day proves more true every season. Last season, seven of the eight teams that occupied a playoff spot on Nov. 23 (Thanksgiving) made the playoffs. The only flip-flops were the Detroit Red Wings, who slipped out with a late-season freefall, and the New York Islanders, who merely held serve while the rest of the Eastern Conference playoff hopefuls sputtered.

Seven of the eight Western Conference teams in a playoff spot on Nov. 23 also made the playoffs. Nashville’s extraordinary second-half charge vaulted them into the postseason.

So, perhaps the Penguins’ late run with Michael Bunting in the lineup after the Jake Guentzel trade will produce greater results than merely providing a couple of weeks of excitement and hope last April. If there is a residual effect of that playoff chase, the Penguins might get off to a much better start in the coming season.

They will need it because their roster does not match the projections of last season.

Matt Rempe New York Rangers, New Jersey Devils line brawl, Fight

Matt Rempe, New York Rangers, New Jersey Devils, Kurtis MacDermid fight.

Top of the Metro Division

The New York Rangers are again the best team in the division. They have the deepest lineup and the best goaltender, Igor Shesterkin. They may not chase down the Presidents’ Trophy as they did last season, but they’re good enough to win the division comfortably.

The only team that figures to be able to keep pace—if everything goes right—is the New Jersey Devils. Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton are healthy, and New Jersey finally acquired goaltender Jacob Markstrom from the Calgary Flames. New coach Sheldon Keefe will likely remove the reins from his new crop of star players, and New Jersey could be a lot of fun to watch.

READ MORE: Uh Oh, the Devils Are Back

Third through seventh is going to be a free-for-all. The Penguins could finish seventh, even eighth in the division, if Sidney Crosby is unable to carry the team. The Penguins could also finish third if they get the best version of Kevin Hayes as their new third-line center and a complete season from goalie Tristan Jarry.

However, the Penguins need a lot of breaks to be at the top of the dog pile. The Washington Capitals are better than last season after making several big-name additions to goaltending (Logan Thompson), center (Pierre-Luc Dubois), and defense (Matt Roy, Jakub Chychrun).

The Islanders are about the same, adding only Anthony Duclair to their lineup.

Even though the Columbus Blue Jackets were one of the worst teams in the NHL last season, perhaps some stability behind the bench (they hired new coach Dean Evason on Monday), combined with the progression of prospects such as Kent Johnson and new top-line center Sean Monohan reunited with Johnny Gaudreau, could make them formidable, too.

With some irony, Columbus’s third pairing looks like it will be Jack Johnson with Erik Gudbranson. Penguins fans might have a little reaction to the pairing of the former Penguins’ d-men again. So, perhaps they won’t be a playoff contender, but they should be much improved from their 24-win season.

Pittsburgh Penguins game, analysis, new lines, win over Flyers

The Carolina Hurricanes are still a solid team, but their offseason defections included Teuvo Teravainen, Jake Guentzel, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Stefan Noesen, Brett Pesce, and Brady Skjei. Young and talented winger Martin Necas is still part of the team but has asked for a trade.

Carolina’s offensive output should take a significant tumble, which puts their aggressive defensive posture with coach Rod Brind’Amour in peril. When Carolina is forced to open up to create offense, they are more vulnerable. Carolina has about $14 million in salary cap space but is dogged by questions about whether ownership can spend to the cap.

And, of course, the wild-card Philadelphia Flyers could be a resurgent force or a wild ride to the bottom. They had a playoff spot–third place–all but locked up until they forgot how to win games in late March through mid-April. The orange and black feature a scattershot of young players, veterans such as Sean Couturier, and unproven goaltending (Samuel Ersson, Ivan Fedotov). General manager Daniel Briere is holding firm to his rebuilding philosophy, so if the Flyers are outside the playoff race, expect a significant purge of talent on the trade market. Even if the Flyers are in a playoff spot–as they were last season–we could see outgoing talent for future assets.