What Dubas’s Coaching Hire Will Say About Penguins Direction

Behind Door No. 1 is a coach with rebuilding experience who was well-liked and influential in the development of several players who are reaching their full potential as stars. Behind Door No. 2 is a coach who is well-regarded for winning at every level and is on the fast track to getting his own NHL bench.

The Pittsburgh Penguins and general manager Kyle Dubas have interviewed additional candidates, including their own assistant coach David Quinn, former New York Rangers assistant Dan Muse, and former Edmonton Oilers bench boss Jay Woodcroft, but the heat is focused on Mitch Love and D.J. Smith, more so on Love.

Dubas’s choice might seem easy. Get the best coach. Duh, Kingerski.

If only life were as simple and linear as that, we’d all make a lot more good decisions. Or at least fewer bad ones. No, instead, the Penguins’ decision as they progress through the final stages of the coaching search, which almost perfectly aligns with Dubas’s stated timeline after the club relieved Mike Sullivan of his duties in April, is far more complex.

And which way Dubas goes with the coaching decision could also tell us quite a bit about what Dubas envisions as the timeline for the rebuild.  Or revamp. Or re-whatever this is.

As a precursor, reading between the lines and accepting other reports as largely accurate, Dubas and Sullivan disagreed on the rebuild strategy and timeline. Such was obvious in how Sullivan handled several players toward the end of the season. While rookies Rutger McGroarty and Ville Koivunen were prominently featured in impact roles, other potential assets for a bright future were stuck in less-than-advantageous situations.

The general feeling at the start of the 2024-25 NHL season was “The mode of being impatient.” Those were the words of the Penguins’ ownership, specifically spoken by Fenway Sports Group principal Tom Werner.

Those words of impatience were spoken before the 2024-25 Penguins dug a hole so deep by January that climbing out was a futile effort, and by February, even the most ardent believers and Sullivan had to admit, “We know the situation we’re in.”

That was as close as Sullivan or Sidney Crosby would come to admitting the playoffs were a greater pipe dream than getting a late-night text from Sydney Sweeney.

By later January when Dubas packaged defenseman Marcus Pettersson and forward Drew O’Connor to the Vancouver Canucks for a 2025 or ’26 New York Rangers first round pick and prospect Melvin Fernstrom, the trajectory of the Penguins was crystal clear. The attempts to fortify the roster by adding Erik Karlsson on Aug. 6, 2023, and adding competent (or previously competent) veterans with overpriced salaries had failed.

A quick turnaround, or at least remaining competitive while Dubas retooled the roster, was not going to be possible.

There was but one direction the Penguins were headed, and the question is still unanswered: How far will the Penguins fall as a natural progression of change and rebuilding?

And as Dubas completes the interview process, when the white smoke emerges from the chimneys of the offices at the UPMC Lemieux Complex in Cranberry, we are going to know more about what Dubas believes is the immediate future of the team.

If Dubas goes with Love, we know winning in the near term is important.

Love has worked well with young players in the WHL, earning a promotion to the AHL, where he guided Calgary’s affiliate to success before being elevated to Spencer Carbery’s staff with the Washington Capitals and being part of Washington’s rapid turnaround.

What Love doesn’t possess is a longer track record of developing professional players. Do not misunderstand, that is not to imply he cannot, but Love was not with Calgary’s AHL affiliates (One year in Stockton, then one year in Calgary) long enough to point to individual success stories.

Dubas tabbing Love will be hiring a smart coach who will undoubtedly want to win as quickly as possible because it’s his first NHL job, and he will have something to prove. An unsuccessful first job can create a long gap until the second job.

Just ask Sullivan, who waited nearly 10 years from his termination by the Boston Bruins in 2006 until getting another NHL head coaching job with the Penguins in December 2015.

Conversely, if Dubas hires Smith, it will be a signal that the rebuild will take a little more time than hoped.

Despite being fired mid-way through his fourth season as the head coach of the Ottawa Senators, the progression of Ottawa’s young stars was significant. Tim Stutzle increased his point total from 29 to 90 in three seasons under Smith. Brady Tkachuk nearly doubled his offensive output, rising from totals in the mid-40s under former coach Guy Boucher to 83 under Smith.

Drake Batherson also saw a near doubling of offensive totals.

Those are the success stories, but the improvements didn’t happen overnight or even in one season. In fact, the rise in goals and points and subsequent win totals took a few years. By the third season, Ottawa had risen from a mere 55 points in the standings to a respectable 86.

However, Smith didn’t get to complete the job, as his shelf life expired by December of his fourth season.

Ottawa finished the remainder of the year under former Penguins assistant Jacques Martin, didn’t make the playoffs as hoped, and hired Travis Green this season. They finally made the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and are an increasingly formidable team.

Smith was a large part of that transformation from the depths of the rebuild to ascendency, but it stopped there. That’s his track record, the good and bad.

In fact, no team in recent memory has embarked upon a rebuild and been able to finish it with one coach. Not the Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks, Montreal Canadiens, Philadelphia Flyers, Anaheim Ducks, and Columbus Blue Jackets. Those are teams that have embarked on rebuilds, and none have the same coach with whom they started, and a few of those teams are still wandering the wilderness, lugging hope in a leaky backpack.

Dubas’s choice isn’t about better or best, but right and right now. With Love behind the bench, it’s a fair expectation that Dubas will aggressively pursue younger players who are an immediate help, and the team should be judged by how close they are to overall competitiveness.

With Smith, a coach with long-term-rebuild experience, it’s not unfair to expect more projects and development, and then eventually winning, perhaps not with Smith.

As of publishing, there is still black smoke from the chimneys. Now we wait and see.