Playoffs and Trades: Forecasting the Rest of the Penguins Season
The Pittsburgh Penguins had a chance to climb back to hockey .500 Saturday. Without Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Bryan Rust, the team played well and deserved a win but lost in regulation to the Philadelphia Flyers. The locker room was balancing the satisfaction from dominating the game with the heartbreak of losing.
Things are rarely simple for the Penguins.
The defeat kept the Penguins six points out of a playoff position and outside realistic reach. It was a four-star effort but an unfortunate loss as the teams they’re chasing lost, too.
If 95 points is the playoff line, the Penguins are in deep trouble, but they’ve known that for a few weeks. The Penguins have 55 points and 50 possible points remaining. Yep, they’d have to take 80% of the remaining points to get to 95. Just to get to 90 points, which probably won’t make the postseason, they’ll need 70%.
When P.O Joseph spoke with Pittsburgh Hockey Now Saturday night about his game and the loss, he admitted the team again waited too long to put together a good stretch of hockey–just as they did last season.
“And we’re making a playoff push right now–even though it’s a little late,” Joseph said. “I’m just trying to be out there and help the team win as much as possible.”
Those 12 games in January, the five-game homestand followed by the seven-game road trip, will serve as the defining moments of their disappointment in April. They won just four of those 12 games and ceded points to several of the worst teams in the NHL. As their losses piled up, other wild-card contenders were stacking wins.
Yet, while fans can say, “Pack it in!” the players and coaches will not. Staying in the fight for as long as possible, despite the very unlikelihood of a positive outcome, is the very necessity of professional sports. If the Penguins were to concede now, the mood and the team culture would quickly rot.
Why is that important? As the organization attempts to bring in young players, it’s crucial to insert them into a good environment that promotes good habits and expectations. Many teams with talented young players have failed because the organization lacked the culture guard rails for young players.
Also, pride. Plenty of players are playing for contracts next season or greater roles now. For example, Alex Nedeljjkovic. He’s seizing his first chance in several years to be a No. 1. goalie. Matt Grzelcyk is showing the league he is a top-four defenseman. Others like Kevin Hayes and Cody Glass suffered the ignominy of being a salary dump.
The playoff chase, however unlikely, is the unifying force for individual goals.
So, the first prediction is that the Penguins will go down swinging.
2. The next Penguins trade won’t rock the world
It’s entirely possible that a team like the Tampa Bay Lightning, Ottawa Senators, or even the LA Kings could entice Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas with a hefty offer for Rickard Rakell. Still, Dubas could also bet that Rakell’s value might keep climbing, too. With a paltry salary cap hit of just $5 million in a league that will soon have a $100 million salary cap, Rakell’s cost, talent, and production make him incredibly valuable.
Rakell is also very valuable to the Penguins, too. Remember, this isn’t going to be a cleaning house rebuild. Dubas has the power to hang a price tag on Rakell and wait until the right buyer comes along. Sidney Crosby surely wouldn’t mind having Rakell stick around, either.
We’ll repeat from Sunday: Rakell should bring no less than three assets, including a first-round pick and a valued B-level prospect.
An under-the-radar name to watch is goalie Alex Nedeljkovic. There are a few teams with Stanley Cup hopes that have surely taken notice of Nedeljkovic grabbing the Penguins’ net.
In his last eight starts, Nedeljkovic has a .944 save percentage at even-strength (4th best among goalies with at least five appearances) and a .934 stopper rate at all strengths (second best behind only Andrei Vasilevskiy).
With Rakell, Dubas has the luxury of time because Rakell has three more years remaining on his contract, and Nedeljkovic has another year on a bargain deal, too.
No, the likely trades between now and March 7 are the smaller deals, such as ones involving Grzelcyk, Hayes, or even Noel Acciari.
The boat-rocking trades, such as Erik Karlsson, Rakell, or Bryan Rust, are summer trades, though don’t expect EVERYONE to go. However, Expect Dubas to clear some space for the prospects to get a good look in March and April.
3. Sid’s Record, Letang Chatter
Sidney Crosby is averaging a point per game or more, and he has a chance to break Wayne Gretzky’s record with his 20th season of doing so. Pursuant to not giving up, expect Crosby to give everything in pursuit of the playoffs and, in the process, will break Gretzky’s record, too.
Alex Ovechkin will break Gretzky’s goal record, too.
The chatter surrounding Kris Letang might also pick up. It’s becoming painfully obvious that Letang has lost a step and is unable to do the very Letang things on which he’s built his career. He’s become a solid defenseman–when was the last time there was a social media uproar over a Letang mistake?
P.O Joseph’s mobility has compensated for Letang’s decreasing zip, but all sorts of chatter could start in the next phase of the season.
4. Here come the kids?
Rutger McGroarty, Ville Koivunen, Tristan Broz, and Owen Pickering will/should be in the NHL for a couple of weeks at the end of the season, which ends on April 17. The AHL regular season ends on April 19, but the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins are one of the best teams in the league and have a genuine shot at a real playoff run.
Will Dubas bring up the youngsters en masse for a couple of weeks, then send them back for a playoff run, or will he keep the troop together in the AHL?
Predicating part of that answer will be the Pittsburgh Penguins’ playoff race. Filtering the prospects through the NHL locker room surely wouldn’t hurt, though teams are limited to just four regular recalls after the March 7 trade deadline (unlimited emergency recalls). However, the bigger part of the answer will be the logistics of protecting the NHL roster flexibility AND getting WBS set for a playoff run, which the organization greatly values as a learning tool.
The Penguins cannot and will not abandon WBS for a few weeks just to get players some NHL exposure.
Given the 23-player roster and tight salary cap, the recall limit seems like a dumb rule. There’s always something fun about September baseball when several or more prospects get their shot, but I digress.
Perhaps 2024 second-round pick Harrison Brunicke (44th overall) could play in the NHL, too, but it’s more likely he would play for WBS following the Kamloops Blazers’ season ends on March 22. Kamloops is in next to last place, so the playoffs are unlikely unless Brunicke is traded to a WHL contender.
Fellow 2024 second-rounder Tanner Howe (46th overall) is playing with the third-place Calgary Hitmen, so WHL playoffs may delay his arrival in WBS. The AHL regular season ends on April 19.
5. The Big Finish
If the regular season ended today, the Penguins would have the eighth-overall pick, pending the NHL Draft Lottery. None of the teams below them in the standings are a threat to make a run, but instead, the Penguins find themselves in that purgatory of junior varsity teams not bad enough for a good shot at the lottery but not good enough for a genuine shot at the playoffs.
The Penguins should finish about where they are, perhaps about 10th worst, in a tight battle with St. Louis, Philadelphia, and Montreal for the top-10 pick. Start learning names like Malcolm Spence (Erie Otters), Roger McQueen (Brandon Wheat Kings), and Eric Nilson (Djurgårdens IF J20).
5A. You?
The one thing we’ll not predict is how you’ll react to what we believe will be a less-than-explosive NHL trade deadline. Will Penguins fans show up to cheer the effort that you saw in New York and Philadelphia or bristle at the lack of wholesale changes?
Categorized:Penguins Penguins Analysis Penguins Perspectives Penguins Trade Talk Pittsburgh Penguins
I recently created and ran an algorithm designed to identify Penguins players most likely to be traded. I weighted such factors as the players current statistics, career stats, and future projected stats as well as the players age, contract dollars, length of term, and any no movement clauses. Also I assigned values to a player’s demand across the NHL market and Coach Sullivan’s liking of the player as well as player’s liking of said Coach. Less weighted values, but still important were the player’s hometown (if North American), his spouse or girlfriend’s hometown, and their favorite foods/restaurants across all NHL… Read more »
Well played, well played…..
….I can’t get out of the house yesterday and today cause of the ice storm so I was bored and had aloooott of time. Thanks for the comment, even if the post is a dud…..LOL
I’d be curious to hear how you created the algorithm. AI?
I wish I could create an algorithm….I was just joking around here…hope you aren’t pissed off, it was all meant to be a joke/something to talk about since there are no games til Wednesday…I see myself as a comedian….lol
Looking forward to see what’s done. But at this point looking to what might be done in the summer and especially draft.
Not sure any of the boat rocking trades will happen. KD has stated he won’t ask any player to waive a NMC and wants to be competitive in Sids final years.
Grzelcyk “showing the league he is a top 4 defenseman?” He seemed to get a lot of grief on here the first few months!
He was terrible, but then he got better when paired with Karlsson, which makes zero sense.
Put him on 2nd pair. Letang gets top guys usually as EK doesn’t play defense. So gryz had lesser competition so he looked better
Eh, I still don’t think he’s very good.
He don’t play great defense. But he can play point on a PP. I can imagine a team out there needing a 2PP point D due to injuries or depth issues who could throw a pick for him. Albeit, 3rd rounder maybe. Better then nothing.
He is playing good, but he is not very good
You haven’t been the watching the games this calendar year or just form your opinions once and are unable to alter it when new evidence unearths?
He doesn’t wow you 5 on 5, for sure, but he clearly took over pp1 defenseman duties from Letang and karlsson…which suggests Sid had a preference
Excellent article, Dan. I agree that the remaining free agents are likely to be traded. Unless a team is a top contender, there’s little reason to retain these players. I doubt any contracted players will be moved unless it makes sense. Rakell is the biggest trade asset, appealing to serious contenders or teams like Detroit aiming to end playoff droughts. His favorable contract and term are attractive to any team with playoff aspirations. It would have to be a exellent return for that to happen during the season. I also hope the Penguins keep the prospects in Wilkes-Barre to finish… Read more »
The Bemstrom, Poulin point is a good one. I did not consider it, but it makes good sense
Dan, you do realize that after the trade deadline you can carry as man people on the roster as you like; as long as you are still at/below the cap ceiling. So if a Geno were to go LTIR at the end, we could call up as many as 6 less an $1-million per year contract players if we like.
Your realize 6 callups would be more then the 4 allowed under rules rights? One could be emergency but the other 5>4 still….
Usually, numbering starts with 1, so I guess this is new age journalism. 😀 I’d rather see Dubas make a GREAT deal over the summer rather than an OK deal at the trade deadline. Depending on what deals get made at the deadline, I could see the Pens fall a few spots in the standings. Of course, they might beat the odds and gain a few spots. I’ll root for the Penguins regardless of their record or roster. What do I get upset about? When players don’t have the same compete level as what we saw in the Rangers and… Read more »
Ah–see the last line before 2. it says, “So the first prediction is…”
“As the organization attempts to bring in young players, it’s crucial to insert them into a good environment that promotes good habits and expectations.”
This team hasn’t had a good environment for young players or a culture of winning in 7 years.
Keep Sully, keep losing!
I don’t know why any player would want to play in Pgh right now.
Fire Sully!
Fire Pete!
Spot on Pete!!!
I enjoyed game against rangers. They were flying and fighting hard on every puck. Game against flyers was not the same. Looked like rakell and lizotte in particular had given everything the night before. And generally it just did not seem like very good hockey either way. Hopefully, we get Sid rust and Geno back, and then I’ll be happy to watch them play with little to no pressure rest of the way.
I appreciate your acknowledgement that a reason prospects sometimes fail is because they’re thrown into a tumultuous system without veteran leadership and any attitude towards winning. How does a rookie no the Ducks, Sharks, etc. expect to progress much when they are playing with exclusively below-average players on a team that consistently has no intention of winning.
Love the attitude of never fully bottoming out. If the deadline comes and you’re not in it, sell and retool for the next year trying to win. An awareness of the future but always with an intention of winning. Losing is toxic.
Exactly, losing is toxic, and it creates bad habits as well
Wow watching highlights of Roger McQueen reminds me of a tall, lanky guy who used to wear #66. Of course, not the same..but some of his moves and the way he skates..
I’ll be there regardless, as each of those games will be on a day which is a GREAT day for hockey!
Dubas should easily move in trades Beauvillier, Acciari, Heinen, Lizotte, to contenders. Grzelcyk in my eyes has earned a 2yr @ $6.2m deal staying here. Also moving depth 3rd/4th line Hayes & Nieto. With controlling $6.6m I can see Dubas being apart of a 3 team deal if he moves a few of these contracts early, where he takes on money for just this season while sending Graves and keeping remainder this seasons salary opening significant FA funds this summer.
Grz is not good and unless we move Graves we shouldn’t keep him.
It’s become apparent that Letang has lost a couple steps. It’s been noticable in the last handful of games that he really can’t catch up when chasing. Hopefully he realizes that and makes adjustments to his game or he will look super rough the next 3 years
Dan, another great article.
I won’t be surprised if Rakell goes before the trade deadline. I don’t see the return going higher after the season and I think Dubas will sell high.
A great trade would be with LA—their 1st and Turcotte for Rakell and the 2025 3rd from OTW.
I don’t know enough about Turcotte to say yes or no. I get 5th overall, but this is his first real season in the NHL with 7 goals in 48 goals. His scoring history is not very good. He has been hurt every year and hasn’t played many games the past 3-4 years. They have better players. He looks like a B tier player and we need more especially since you want to give up a 3rd rounder also.
Please trade Rakell. I love Rakell and was very happy to get him a few years ago. But, that was a completely different team. Dubas absolutely has to trade him.
I say fire Dubas annd Sullivan and let Sid call every shot and still play !!!