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Nate Diaz Upset? Paul-Diaz Fight Analysis, $150 DraftKings Promo

Published

9 months ago

August 4, 2023

Nate Diaz, Jake Paul Fight Odds, Preview, DraftKings promo

If this is not the first fight prediction you have read, you will likely be familiar with the same several arguments. Nate Diaz is stepping into the boxing ring for the first time. Jake Paul is a bigger man. And 10 Rounds of throwdown are problematic for the famed Diaz scar tissue and willingness to bleed.

However, if the first McGregor fight taught us one thing – it is do not ever discount Nate Diaz.

CURRENT ODDS (DRAFTKINGS):

Paul Moneyline: -390

Paul by KO/TKO/DQ: -150

Paul by D: +350

Diaz by KO/TKO/DQ: +550

Diaz Moneyline +285

Diaz by D: +750

O/U: 7.5

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The 10-round stipulation (I understand they were first negotiating an 8-round match) plays into Paul’s favor. Not because Diaz has been training with a blunt is his mouth (I’m sure that singular video was part of the typical fight-hype, and drew close to a million views across social media platforms, but Diaz’s cardio conditioning is the stuff of folklore), but because of the concern over Diaz’s willingness to bleed to victory. This is far more concerning in a 10-round boxing match than a routine MMA fight.

If Paul lands his overhand right enough times, he will almost certainly catch the ringside doctor’s attention with respect to cuts.

Also, Diaz is 38 years old, a veteran of the game, and one of THEE baddest men on the planet. If we are talking about it, you can bet your last dollar that he is aware of it and will protect against cuts.

Another fact that cannot be stressed enough is that Diaz does not take a fight for the payday, notoriety, or fame. He is in rare air when it comes to being that kind of warrior who would rather hurt (and – in several instances, via the “Stockton Slap” embarrass his opponents) than worry about money or record. While some may point out that he has 11 losses in the Octagon, there is just as easy of an argument to make that it is because he will fight anyone at any time. (Again, see, McGregor’s first submission of his career). Make no mistake: this man is coming to fight.

If you want to bet big on the fight, take the Caesar’s promo, with up to a $1250 bet payback.

Turning to Jake Paul, it is easy to discount him as an “influencer” who has had a degree of success in the squared circle that many did not think he was capable of. However, he has taken his latest career seriously, and it would be nothing short of disrespect to discount his as a real and capable boxer. His vision in the ring, anticipation of his opponents’ movements, and all-around skill set is not that of an “influencer,” a “youtuber,” nor is it a gimmick.

All of the above makes this an absolutely intriguing matchup, especially when deciding where to place your wagers.

Now, with no further ado, the predictions for how to bet this fight.

To this author’s mind, Paul as a nearly 4-1 favorite is way too wide. If you are a volume gambler, take this as an incorrect moneyline and put your unit of betting on Diaz.

As a one-off bet, I still cannot bet against Diaz. He’s not an NBA player, nor a washed-up MMA fighter grabbing a payday. He is one of the baddest men on earth, and as stated, is coming for a fight. If you look at the first round (or even first minute) of the Paul-Fury fight, you can see that Paul wanted to get rugged and tie up when possible. I simply do not see Paul being in any way, shape, or form more rugged than Diaz. I think that Diaz’s experience neutralizes the (keep in mind, only what – 7 pro boxing matches) “experience” of Paul in the boxing ring.

I would love to take the over, but I think the only thing that foils this pick is Diaz getting DQ’d (or more likely losing a couple of points) for being more rugged than the rules of boxing allow. Watch the first round of the Fury fight – Paul tried to engage in some dirty tactics and questionable clinching, but he was also fighting a fellow influencer turned-fighter. Jake will try to clinch, and Diaz will shove his head down… the question is does he control this or lose points as a result?

My favorite bet here is Diaz on the moneyline at a ridiculous (nearly) 4-1 underdog. Diaz has never influenced anything other than the oxygen flow to his opponent’s brain. While he cannot triangle Jake Paul in this fight format, his experience, ring generalship, and ability to adapt to Paul’s strengths (most notably that strong right) while taking advantage of his weaknesses as a somewhat inexperienced fighter leads to the only rational conclusion:

Diaz will win this fight because he is a superior fighter, regardless of the particular disciple being boxing and not MMA.