The NHL is careening towards July 1, its annual all-out free agent feeding frenzy. Rumors abound! Call me the Grinch who stole free agency rumors or an old man yelling at clouds. Even call me that guy with the bucket of cold water.
Hockey’s silly season has arrived, but we shouldn’t lose our marbles. Does it make sense to argue about which implausible possibility is least probable and ignore which plausible possibility is most probable? (I hope Dr. Seuss enjoyed that one). It’s time to stomp some of the most far-flung possibilities which are making the rounds on the internet. It’s Rumor Squashing Day!
In the comments section below, feel free to tee up your favorite rumor. Also, if any of the following rumors actually happen, I will both eat my words and buy a round at my little neighborhood bar. You are invited. For real.
Penguins Rumor: Joe Thornton
The fan theory goes something like this–Since Joe Thornton has never won a Stanley Cup, the 38-year old will be overcome with competitive desire, eschew the declining San Jose Sharks and a dozen interested teams to sign a sweetheart deal with the Penguins in order to win a Stanley Cup.
Minor flaws in the plan: Several very good teams are interested in Jumbo Joe, including the Los Angeles Kings, who are only a few goals away from being a scary team. Those very good teams are willing to pay top dollar so Thornton can help them beat the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Some forget, the Hall-of-Fame laden Detroit Red Wings teams of the late 1990’s with players like Brett Hull, Luc Robitaille, and Larry Murphy, had a huge payroll. Those would-be Hockey Hall of Fame players joined forces but also got paid.
Here’s the last bit of dirt on the grave: Thornton is an assist machine who doesn’t play fast. The Penguins list of third line wingers aren’t great finishers and play fast.
Sorry… No, Joe!
Penguins Rumor: Matt Duchene for Olli Maatta!
So, let me get this straight: The player you don’t think is worth a bag of pucks, is too slow and is frequently the whipping boy of Penguins fanboys across the internet, is suddenly worth building a package around for a prominent young center.
Got it. The rumor was floated by a credible Canadian outlet, but it is hard to imagine finding mutually beneficial grounds for a trade. The Maatta-Duchene rumor also appeared last winter, too. By the way, Olli Maatta was rock solid in the playoffs. His skating was much improved. His decision making was usually crisp. He was good.
Here are the main reasons Duchene won’t be a Penguin: Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Duchene makes six million dollars per season. In a salary cap era, it doesn’t fly to have a six million dollar THIRD line center. It would be insanity to commit nearly 25 million dollars to the middle of the ice, long term.
More dirt on the grave: Duchene can be a top line or second line center, for many teams. That is worth a lot more to a team trading for Duchene than it would be to the Penguins who would be trading for a third line center.
Nick Bonino Will Get Overpaid…by Someone
Ok, this is the one which worries me. I may buy a round on this one.
Nick Bonino had 37 points last season and is a couple seasons removed from his career outputs in Vancouver, where he scored 39 and 49 points. Bonino does the little things. He is a gutsy center and locker room presence. The guy played, then practiced on a broken tibia in the Stanley Cup Final.
The real truth–he’s worth a solid 3.5 million per season. Bonino isn’t flashy, or offensively creative. His points come from playing with talented players. But stopping goals is also important, perhaps more important in the postseason. And Bonino stops more than his share of goals.
So, anything over 4 million would be an overpayment. And that’s unlikely. But anything less is fair market value.
Honorable Mention: Tavares to Toronto
Because every great player, every Ontario boy wants to wear the blue and white, right? Quickly moving on…
There you go… Rumors squashed. The real fun is trying to figure out who will chase Trevor Daley (Red Wings), if any team dares come after RFA Justin Schultz (none to our knowledge, yet) and who the Penguins may chase. So, enjoy the silly season!