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Penguins Q&A: Rebuilding Defense; Erik Karlsson Trade Talk

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3 weeks ago

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Pittsburgh Penguins, Evgeni Malkin 500th goal

The Pittsburgh Penguins’ season ended last week, and now the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins are done, too. After the emotional and abrupt end to the Wilkes-Barre season Friday night, there are no more games at the top levels of the organization, and the competition is now replaced with questions.

The solutions would be easy if the NHL had a player creation mode, but new players are not available at Walmart simply for the taking. General managers and coaches cannot simply roll up to the store, grab what they need, and be on their way. And so the Penguins’ offseason shopping list will be a little harder to fill via trades and free agency than an average shopping list of eggs and milk.

Though perhaps they’ll be the same price.

And in the latest Q&A, lots of you want to know about Erik Karlsson. I think the answers are there if we’re able to decode them.

Pittsburgh Hockey Now has not made a secret analysis that the blue line has perhaps performed to the lowest level in the league and is the worst in our Penguins’ memory. Each of the individual members is an NHL defenseman. Still, the combination or construction was otherwise akin to a six-car pileup, the wreckage of which bottlenecked an already limited team.

We put the bat signal on X Friday morning and got handfuls of good questions (Thanks for doing part of my job for me!)

Let’s do it.

Penguins Q&A

Astute observation, Lisa. Many, if not most, people took it in the opposite direction. I am firmly in the camp that Dubas’s comments had a swift current of frustration beneath them, and part of that frustration is the underlying fact that the two sides are probably stuck together.

Those exit meetings that you referenced are supposed to be “Hi–work on this–thanks for coming. We appreciate you/will see you in camp.” Yet Karlsson and Dubas “had a long meeting on Friday.”

They probably weren’t swapping tales of moose hunting.

I suspect Dubas was rubbed a bit by Karlsson’s input. You’ll catch coach Mike Sullivan from time to time making an off-handed quip about such input. Most importantly, no one besides Karlsson has more on the line regarding Karlsson’s proper performance than Dubas. How could Dubas not be frustrated with a Hall of Fame player submitting a tempered, constrained, or watered-down version of his best?

The blame has many fathers, but ultimately it is on Karlsson.

Odds he’s traded? 20%.

Here’s my take on the situation, and I stress this is my gut feeling, not what I’ve been told: I believe almost everyone in hockey assumes someone else will want him because he’s just so darned good, but not many are themselves interested in taking on the inconsistencies and independence.

Carolina is the wildcard here. GM Eric Tulsky likes his analytics department a lot, probably more so than Dubas. If 40-year-old Brent Burns shuffles off the stage, would Carolina try to get Karlsson on a discount? After all, Carolina was the other finalist when Dubas pulled off the trade on Aug. 6, 2023.

However, Tulsky wasn’t the GM two years ago. Don Waddell was. The best fit probably still involves Waddel, who is now running the Columbus Blue Jackets.

I could not think of a better team and city for Karlsson than Columbus.

Let’s see who is on the roster. Let’s see how deep Dubas cuts.

Dave Molinari has converted my opinion on this. Even recently, I was penciling him onto the lineup sheet. However, now I think Brunicke starting on the NHL roster would be a mistake. Here’s why: Brunicke is just about ready, BUT he has a few more levels and layers he can add, too.

He was pretty good Friday night in the 3-2 WBS loss to Lehigh Valley Phantoms. He was steady, solid, and productive, but he also showed glimpses of more.

I believe it would not be more difficult for him to explore his game if he starts in the NHL. The AHL would offer more space to explore, a bit like Owen Pickering has done (whether Owen realizes it or not). Brunicke could be a really good defenseman–I wasn’t crazy about that pick in the moment, but my goodness–the Penguins may have hit a home run.

Edit: Brunicke is not eligible to play in the AHL next season. It’s either the NHL or WHL.

I was wrong, they were right. Very right. I don’t know their thinking, but if Karlsson is traded or Letang isn’t ready for the start of the season (he should be ready), then Brunicke would be a good choice.

On the right side, the Penguins also own the rights to Conor Timmins and Jack St. Ivany. I asked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins coach Kirk MacDonald about St. Ivany’s roller-coaster ride this season, and MacDonald was gushing about St. Ivany’s recent play. I mean absolutely overflowing praise.

St. Ivany was nothing short of great Friday night, too.

And yes, I can see many of you commenting, Timmins-Brunicke-St. Ivany! It’s not impossible, but two of three are more likely.

That’s too tough to predict right now because 16 teams are still playing. Nor has the dust settled for many of the 16 not playing.

I receive variations of this question often, and we just don’t know enough right now. Edmonton must dump some salary and revamp, especially if the LA Kings thump them, right? New York needs to make changes. Toronto figuratively has the Marner issue hanging over its head like a hockey guillotine, while they also need to re-sign a few others, such as Matthew Knies, too.

Vegas and Florida also know how to shuffle salaries for new blood. Toronto and Florida might not be done for a few more weeks … or a couple of months.

My research to find “those types” of players will begin with those teams.

And a couple of teams like Boston and Vancouver are hoping to skip the rebuild and go back to the playoffs, so would they pair an asset with a contract they don’t like (Looking at you, Nikita Zadorov)?

There wasn’t a must-have prospect. And, it takes two sides to agree. The Penguins did well when Tom Fitzgerald and Bill Guerin were tightly connected to that community, but the success stories are limited. Zach Aston-Reese and Conor Sheary were college free agents, but you’re more likely to get players who are 4A types with low ceilings.

Last season, Collin Graf (Quinnipiac) signed with the San Jose Sharks. There were no other players who played in the NHL, at least as far as I can find. I imagine there are all kinds of factors in the young men’s choices, but also, they haven’t missed much, either.

OK, Lightning Round, or this would be longer than a Christopher Nolan movie.

Assuming they pick ninth, who else is on the board? Jake O’Brien is gaining steam. Has someone else fallen to them? And MOST importantly, what do Roger McQueen’s medicals show about his back injury?

That defense. My goodness. The team will not win anything until it is markedly improved. Rutger McGroarty and Ville Koivunen bring a good bit of hope and lineup balance, even if coach Mike Sullivan flatly rejected my question on the matter late in the season. It’s a fact.

Not even Edgar Cayce could come close.

OK, old man telling tales of better sports days gone by … When I had time for such endeavors, I preferred the left wing. I’m a right-shooter (like most American kids who grew up with a Mylec stick instead of Sherwood), and am somewhat ambidextrous. I found I could really see the ice and get on my left foot for a better shot that way.

Also, when I played men’s league (A & B, while really being a C player), I was a good agitator and a net-front guy. One guy cross-checked or hit me so hard from behind at the horn that my head hit the ice, and my skates hit the glass. My chirps of the butthurt Kevins and Karens on X are heavily censored. Uncensored, I’d make Brad Marchand blush. Also, I couldn’t skate backwards for crap, so defense was out.

Thanks, All!

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