Penguins’ Trade Fallout: Dumba Scenarios & Why to Expect More
The Pittsburgh Penguins acquired Matt Dumba in a quick and easy salary dump trade from the Dallas Stars Thursday. With Dumba came a 2028 second-rounder, and out the door went disposable right-side defenseman Vladislav Kolyachonok.
The Penguins took on Dumba’s $3.75 million salary, which expires after this season. The trade allows Dallas more breathing room as they’re now under the salary cap, sporting a razor-thin $1.9 million in cap space, but that’s of little concern to the Penguins and Penguins fans.
It seems quite obvious that another Penguins trade is coming. In other words, pack your bags, Erik Karlsson.
Since July 1, Dubas has flashed his cards, though they’re hardly a surprise. He signed free-agent winger Anthony Mantha to a one-year, $2.5 million deal, an obvious replacement for Rickard Rakell or Bryan Rust when one or both are dealt.
Now, it is the same scenario for Dumba and the blue line. By accepting Dallas’s salary dump, the Penguins acquired one more player at the only position in which they have a surplus: Right-side defense.
With Dumba, the Penguins now have six righties. Kris Letang, Karlsson, newly acquired Connor Clifton, Jack St. Ivany, and Harrison Brunicke.
Of course, Brunicke can return to junior hockey, but on Monday, even Penguins director of player development Tom Kostopoulos admitted that Brunicke has likely outgrown juniors. Brunicke could return to juniors, but that would go against every bit of the general manager Kyle Dubas’s intentions.
The Penguins are in the midst of a rebuild, looking for younger players at every position. To thwart Brunicke’s ascension would be the managerial version of shooting oneself in the foot to acquire a second-round pick.
At the draft, Dubas seemed happy to acquire Clifton. Clifton is a scrappy, physical defenseman, and the Penguins have far too little sandpaper in their lineup.
So, too, is St. Ivany tough. He regained his form later last season with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins after losing his confidence and game in the NHL early last season. Following the season, both WBS Penguins coach Kirk MacDonald and Dubas spoke of seeing St. Ivany take that final step to the NHL this season.
To blunt him wouldn’t quite be malfeasance, but it, too, would go against the stated goals. Four spots, six defensemen. If you’re not good with numbers, friendly or otherwise, that’s two too many.
Now, Dumba is in the mix.
At his best, Dumba is a great skater with some offensive flair and physicality, though over the last several years, he’s not been close to his best. Dumba last hit the 50-point mark with the Minnesota Wild in 2017-18. He hasn’t exceeded 27 points since.
The Dumba Fallout
The first potential with Dumba is nothing. If he does not improve his game, he can be waived and sent to WBS, where he becomes another project for the player development department. Or, Dumbas is merely a body in the AHL on call to the NHL until his contract expires after this season.
Thursday afternoon, PHN spoke with Dallas colleagues and people who work inside the organization to get a scouting report on Dumba. In short, he had a disastrous 2024-25 season. It was not bad, it was terrible. We were told coaches “tried everything” to get him on track, but in the playoffs, coaches surrendered and Dumba was a healthy scratch in favor of a minor league call-up.
Given the Penguins’ push toward youth, it would seem St. Ivany and Brunicke would be primary targets to make the NHL roster. However, the Penguins can let assistant coach Mike Stothers work with Dumba. Perhaps the Penguins can reclaim his previously dynamic game, or at least some measure of it, and then they hold a valuable trade chip at the 2026 NHL trade deadline.
Last season, Cody Glass fetched the Penguins a pair of third-round picks. First, Nashville delivered a third-rounder with Glass in a salary dump. Then Dubas flipped Glass near the deadline to the New Jersey Devils for another third.
If Dubas and coaches can do the same for the 30-year-old Dumba, it would be a big win. If nothing else comes of the trade, the Penguins simply bought another second-round pick with salary cap space they didn’t need. That, too, would be a win.
It’s not the type of win that Penguins fans are used to seeing. In these parts, the public is used to seeing trade returns such as Ron Francis and Ulf Samuelsson, or Rick Tocchet and Ken Wregget, Marian Hossa, or even Billy Guerin. But for at least a couple more seasons, if not a few, get used to winning trades without any immediate tangible return.
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At a minimum, this team will be bigger and harder to play against. They won’t be easily steamrolled physically.
I anticipate Letang and Brunicke to make the team (as long as they earn their spot) and St. Ivany as the 6/7/8 D-man. That really only leaves one right-handed spot for either Clifton or Dumba; Unless someone can play their off-side. This is assuming EK65 is traded over the summer.
Great coverage, Dan. I like Dubas’ strategy. However, accumulating future assets is the easy part. Scouting and player development are the more difficult components of this rebuild. What will be interesting to watch is what identity future Pens teams will have. Hopefully, the GM and the coach will be more on the same page than Dubas’ and Sullivan seemed to be.
As long as he goes to the ahl, great trade. If he takes st Ivey or brunicke time away, someone needs their head examined. IDC if he reclaims for and can snatch a pick, it’s more important to develop what we got.
Why did we ever bother to get him. We’ve got plenty of draft picks. Scratching my head on this one.
There can never be enough draft picks. Lack of draft picks is how the current penguins team ended up where they were/are. The mass quantity of draft picks is so the team can build a strong future. We all would like immediate results, but Dubas inherited an aging team with no prospects, so he has to start from scratch.
I do believe they will trade or try to trade Karlsson this summer. I was hoping by now to hear rumors about what teams he is willing to go to. The lack of this is concerning for me. I know, Dan can you please ask Dubas to let me know what’s going on, I promise I won’t tell anyone 😁
It’s good too see the direction the franchise is going. It gives me hope for the future, unlike the other 2 teams in town.
The 2027-28 season is right around the corner.
I mean, if not EK, then surely some one mentioned above? Maybe another young player for young player trade. Everyone was insanely high on Braden Yager until he wasn’t a penguin not long after.
On Donnie Chedrick’s show tonight on The Fan, it was mentioned Karlsson to Vegas as a possibility.
I’ll contribute to his bus ticket!
Great analysis, DK. Thanks!
What happened to the youth movement!!?
The 2nd round pick they acquired is probably 16 years old right now. That is pretty young.
Seriously though Dumba is only 30 and won’t be here for long. He may end up being a 7th defenseman or sent to Wilkes-Barre. The young guys still have to compete with the older guys and earn their spot.
Agree, if the young guys can’t beat out Dumba for a roster spot then they probably don’t deserve the spot in the first place…
There has never been a better time to broker cap space and league average players than I can remember. It is the ideal time for the rebuild. The amount of assets the Pens can accumulate right now can set them up for a cascade of fresh talent every year for the next 4 years. It’s absolutely great to be a seller of anything in this market. Dubas is playing it perfectly starting with the Guentzel trade.
A win trade. Dumba is a very physical player who is an open ice assassin. A little trouble scoring but we had have worse. (Dumo zero goals in 2 calendar years being one). If he works great, if he fails big whoop.
Vlady is a left handed Dman. On that subject, which R handed Dman can play the left side?
Hockey tanking is a lucrative business, asset-wise. Get a 2nd rounder to take Dumba, likely flip him for an additional 3rd rounder at the deadline. Trade a 5th for Dewar and Timmons at last deadline, turn around and trade Timmons for a high 2nd rounder (plus Clifton, who they likely flip for another third rounder at the deadline). Take Glass for a 3rd, trade him for another 3rd. Get Schenn as a throw-in during the Bunting trade, trade him instantly for a 2nd rounder. Pretty crazy what Dubas has been able to do, with more on the way. Gotta think… Read more »
This is a dumba transaction. $3M for a second-round pick. Anybody know if the 2028 draft is a deep one or not?
Expect more fights and lop-sided losses. #FreeEK65
Sorry, it’s not malfescece. It’s malfeasance. I know, because I lost a spelling bee on this word in the eighth grade.
Thanks for the catch. My spellchecker didn’t catch it!