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Penguins vs. Lightning Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction (October 26, 2021)

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Penguins vs. Lightning betting

On Tuesday night, the Pittsburgh Penguins will play host to the Tampa Bay Lightning at the PPG Paints Arena. The Lightning are 2-3-1 on the season, while the Penguins are 3-0-2.

Let’s get into our Penguins vs. Lightning betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this October 26, 2021 matchup.

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Penguins-Lightning Preview

These two teams are the epitome of why the NHL has been a bit upside down in this, the first month of the season. The Penguins have been bereft of offensive skill players since the start of the season, and yet have scored 23 goals in their first five games. Their plus-11 goal differential is tied for the fourth-best in the league.

Meanwhile, the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning haver stumbled considerably out of the gate, have a losing record, got stomped 5-1 by the Buffalo Sabres Monday (not a typo), and are tied for the third-worst goal differential in the NHL at minus-10.

The Penguins went into Tampa on the opening night of the season two weeks ago and stunned the Lightning and spoiled their banner-raising party with a 6-2 victory. Now Tampa comes to Pittsburgh where they’ve struggled in recent seasons, going 3-12-1 in Pittsburgh over the last decade.

Andrei Vasilevskiy will be back in the net for Tampa after getting the night off in Buffalo, but that’s the only positive for Tampa as they enter this game as they have allowed 4.17 goals per game so far this season, third-worst in the NHL.

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Penguins vs. Lightning Odds

Here are the lines for Penguins vs. Lightning at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Spread: Penguins (+1.5 -210), Lightning (-1.5 +175)
Moneyline: Penguins (+120), Lightning (-135)
Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-125), Under 5.5 (+105)

Bets We Like with a Penguins Win

Penguins to win by 2+ goals (+260, BetMGM)

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Every once in awhile, oddsmakers are way off. It happens in hockey more frequently than in other sports. Sometimes they’ll set the odds based solely on what they believe the betting public will think of a given matchup without taking into consideration any recent play or injuries, or any other trends.

And it makes sense early in the season. How else can you have Tampa be a favorite in Pittsburgh considering how the two teams have played so far this season? Considering the Lightning are playing on back-to-back nights and had to travel from Buffalo to Pittsburgh to boot? That they are historically bad in PPG paints arena? That the Penguins haven’t lost in regulation yet this season? That the Penguins won handily against the Lightning in Tampa? That the Lightning haven’t scored the first goal in a game yet this season, has trailed entering the third period in every game this season and has yet to even hold a lead in regulation this season?

We all know people who will tell you the oddsmakers “know something” and that despite all these trends, and the ones listed  in the preview above, that this is Tampa’s game to win and you should bet it.

We’ll tell you we feel otherwise. Stick with the trends here. Tampa will eventually figure out what’s not working and right themselves, but teams usually need some good practice time for that. The Lightning haven’t had that recently.

Meanwhile, the Penguins believe in themselves. They’ll win this game and if you believe in getting empty-netters –Tampa is a team that believes in pulling the goalie earlier than most to try to tie the score when trailing in the third period. They’ve allowed six empty net goals in their three losses this season– three to the Penguins. That makes this bet have even more value than usual.

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Bets We Like with a Lightning Win

Alex Killorn to score at least one goal (+210, FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Killorn has been one of the few consistent offensive players for the Lightning so far this season, specifically at 5-on-5 play. He scored in the first game against Pittsburgh and will likely see some time against the more depth lines in the Pittsburgh lineup. Even though those lines have played well, they are certainly more susceptible to scoring chances than others. As such, Killorn seems like a good bet, and at good odds, to score for Tampa.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Over 5.5 goals (-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

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You can have some fun with the Over in this game. It is set arbitrarily low because Vasilevskiy is due back in net for Tampa but again, considering their struggles, lack of practice time, travel schedule and Pittsburgh’s repeated success and goal scoring ability, combined with Tampa’s risk taking by pulling the goalie so early when trailing, this number is way to low for a total.

Take the over itself and be happy, or add in a Penguins win with the over in a parlay (+370, DraftKings), or if you don’t buy all the reasons we’ve outlined for the Penguins to win this one, take them at +1.5 goals and parlay it with the over for decent odds (+190, DraftKings).

Either way, this is a game to beat the oddsmakers and bolster that bankroll.

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Penguins vs. Lightning Prediction

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The Lightning keep it close, but the Penguins still find a way to win, and get you over the 5.5 goal total with not one, but two empty-netters.

Prediction: Penguins 5, Lightning 2.

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Russ Joy is a sports betting editor for XL Media PLC, co-host of Snow The Goalie: A Flyers Podcast, a Flyers writer for CrossingBroad.com, and the Crossing Broad Podcast Network Director. A graduate of West Chester University of PA and California University of PA. Russ is also a husband and father of three. Follow him on Twitter: @JoyOnBroad Email: russell.joy@xlmedia.com

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