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Kyle Dubas’ Trade Record With Penguins: Hits & Misses

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Pittsburgh Penguins, Erik Karlsson

Kyle Dubas has made it clear that the Pittsburgh Penguins’ approach to the offseason will not involve a tear-it-down rebuild, that the plan will be to construct a playoffs-caliber team via trades, free-agent signings and promotions from the farm team in Wilkes-Barre.

Dubas, like most general managers, won’t be divulging the details of what he intends to do between now and the start of training camp in September, but one thing that’s certain is that his plan will have to be fluid and flexible, because situations can change — for better or worse — in a matter of days, if not hours.

Teams, for example, can make it known that a player, previously thought to be secure with that club, actually is available, at least for someone willing to pay the right price. And once free agency gets going in July, other guys will go on the market because their teams have signed someone who is viewed as an upgrade, or even because they have made some moves that put them near, if not over, the salary-cap ceiling.

Dubas has been in his job as the Penguins’ president of hockey operations and GM for less than a year, so it’s a little early to say whether he has a preferred method of restructuring his roster. He has, however, proven willing to negotiate trades, so it’s reasonable to believe he’ll be open to dealing if a player he likes goes on the market.

Here’s a chronological look at the four most significant acquisitions Dubas has made since succeeding Ron Hextall as GM last spring:

Reilly Smith

Price: 2024 third-round draft pick.
Why he was acquired: To replace Jason Zucker as a top-six left winger.
How he’s worked out: Not very well, for the most part. After meshing nicely with Evgeni Malkin early in the season and scoring six goals in the first 10 games, Smith became a virtual non-factor and eventually played his way off the top two lines. Whether he was not happy about leaving Vegas, which put him on the market after winning the Stanley Cup because of a salary-cap crunch, is hard to say, but Smith was not the solid two-way contributor he had been with the Golden Knights, or in earlier stints with Florida and Boston. He showed occasional flashes of being the player the Penguins hoped they were getting, but not nearly enough of them. The Pittsburgh Penguins would be willing to trade him, although they likely would be selling low. Maybe even lower than Vegas did.

Erik Karlsson (plus Rem Pitlick and a 2026 third-round draft pick)

Price: Jeff Petry, Casey DeSmith, Nathan Legare, Mikael Granlund, Jan Ruuta, 2024 first-round pick, 2025 second-round pick.
Why he was acquired: To add an offensive dimension to the defense corps and upgrade the power play.
How he’s worked out: The Penguins, realistically or otherwise, viewed themselves as a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, so bringing in a potential difference-maker like Karlsson made a lot of sense, even if that was not their most pressing personnel need. But considering that they’re sitting out the playoffs for the second year in a row rather than chasing another championship and that their power play got even worse, dropping from 25th to 30th in the league rankings, it’s hard to see how adding Karlsson was a plus. That he’s an exceptional skater with outstanding offensive talents defies contention — there’s a reason he has three Norris trophies and will end up in the Hockey Hall of Fame — but some of Karlsson’s decision-making and execution, especially in the defensive zone, go far beyond perplexing.

Emil Bemstrom

Price: Alex Nylander, 2026 sixth-round draft pick.
Why he was acquired: To add scoring to the third or fourth line.
How he’s worked out: Bemstrom had three goals in 24 games after being acquired from Columbus, so he clearly did not have the impact for which the Pittsburgh Penguins were hoping. The good news for them — if there is any — is that if Bemstrom scored six or more times after joining them, the pick they sent to the Blue Jackets would have been upgraded to a third-rounder. Bemstrom owns a wicked shot, but its value is limited if it doesn’t produce goals on a fairly regular basis. He’s a restricted free agent with arbitration rights, so it will be interesting to see whether Dubas views him as an asset worth retaining.

Michael Bunting (plus 3 prospects and 2024 conditional No. 2 and No. 5 draft picks)

Price: Jake Guentzel, Ty Smith.
Why he was acquired: To help fill top-six void created by losing Guentzel.
How he’s worked out: This is the kind of deal the Penguins hadn’t made in the better part of two decades, parting with a major contributor so that another club could bolster its lineup for a playoff run, and it can’t be fully judged until it’s determined how the prospects — forwards Vasily Ponomarev, Ville Koivunen and Cruz Lucius — and draft choices work out. The early returns, though, are that both clubs are happy with what they got. Guentzel has been productive with the Hurricanes and Bunting gave the Pittsburgh Penguins a badly needed infusion of grit and fire, along with a decent scoring touch. While he definitely is not Guentzel’s offensive equal, Bunting is a legitimate top-six winger who also could be effective if deployed on a third line.

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Dean
Dean
11 days ago

Dave and Dan, the Pens need to find a LD that compliments Karlsson. After a season, there doesn’t appear to be one on the roster.

The best LD for Karlsson may not be that obvious.

Makar and Karlsson have very similar styles. His LD, Toews is an incredibly mobile, outstanding puck-moving offensive defenseman. They move the puck to the offensive zone and spend the majority of the time on offense. They also play the first PK together.

Thoughts?

Eric
Eric
11 days ago
Reply to  Dean

Did you just compare Maker with EK?

Dean
Dean
11 days ago
Reply to  Eric

It’s Makar. lol. That alone explains your question.

Eri
Eri
11 days ago
Reply to  Eric

Makar did win the Stanley Cup in ’22 along with the Conne Smythe, and is reminiscent of a younger EK65. EK65 while not having another 100+ point Norris season, and being void of a Cup on his resume, was not awful. Once his teammates learn how to anticipate passes from him, the Pens will be that much more of an offensive threat. If the Pens construct and coach a power play strategy around EK65 it will be top 3 next season – leaving the majority of the power play decisions up to the players on ice is no longer effective.… Read more »

Eri
Eri
11 days ago
Reply to  Dean

I wonder if OTT would give up Chychrun for a reasonable price. He was a -30 and on the 3rd pairing, also looks like he’s fallen out of favor in OTT. He fits the bill for a mobile, puck moving D-man. Maybe a change of scenery would work for him and the Pens. Although I don’t think he’s very good in his own end.

Eric
Eric
11 days ago

Dan good article. But wasn’t one of the reasons the Karlsson trade was made was to dump Petry and Rutta’s salary?

Woytowich
Woytowich
11 days ago

Great article, Dave. You nailed it. The only way the Karlsson trade becomes somewhat palatable is if Karlsson gets north of 70 points(hopefully power play points) and cleans up defensively. Granlund actually had a decent year and Petry it turns out was tradeable so the Karlsson deal right now is looking terrible. The same goes for Graves. I worry sometimes that Dubas is too frenetic and brings in players whimsically (so many waiver
claims) that he seems desperate.

The Guentzel trade has potential if some of the futures work out.

Eri
Eri
11 days ago
Reply to  Woytowich

The power play was the #1 reason the Pens did not make the playoffs, given all the other deficiencies – if that special teams unit was 1 for 5 they’d be playing in WC1 or WC2. Also not giving up more than 3 SHG would have been nice. But the Karlsson deal looks OK, not terrible – that would be the Graves signing. Don’t forget the contracts that the Pens got rid of and Petry was only tradable b/c PIT & MTL both retained salary. He does need to make smarter defensive decisions especially when playing with a lead, but… Read more »

Woytowich
Woytowich
10 days ago
Reply to  Eri

Karlsson is owed 30 million dollarsunlesshe improves we are stuck with that contract. Do you think anyone in the league would touch karlsson without the Penguins eating major money on the cap. Don’t forget the main reason Karlsson was brought in was to improve the power play. We were 31st this year. Doesn’t look very good so far. Petry and Granlund have one year left on their deals and karlsson has 3. We also gave up a first and second. I maintain if Karlsson doesn’t improve it is a disaster. Maybe his analytics are good but the eye test is… Read more »

Dan Zbylski
11 days ago

why not bring Jake Guentzel back aince he will be a free agent for next season?????

Eli
Eli
10 days ago

Sadly, I think 3 goals in 24 games makes Bemstrom one the Pens’ more productive 4th liners.

Uros
Uros
10 days ago

Oh, would you look at that. One crapshoot went partially his way. He would’ve lost his shirt in Vegas. You know, Hextall did better his first year. What he did after that is beyond comprehension, but he had a better first year.